It’s getaway day for the Toronto Blue Jays, who look to complete a sweep of the San Diego Padres at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: Toronto is 4-4 during this homestand thanks to a pair of shutout wins over San Diego. A win on Thursday would put the Blue Jays (24-24) back above .500 for the year and hand the Padres their sixth straight loss.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Padres prop picks on May 22, featuring Luis Arraez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Blue Jays picks vs. Padres
Best Bet: Arraez over 1.5 hits (+130)
Arraez is still one of the most unique hitters in baseball.
The three-time reigning batting champ — with three different teams, mind you — rarely walks or strikes out. And he doesn’t hit the ball hard. But his contact quality is among the best in the bigs.
Look at Arraez’s Baseball Savant percentile rankings to see what I’m talking about:
- 100th-percentile K rate (1.7%)
- 99th-percentile squared-up rate (41.0%)
- 16th-percentile walk rate (5.0%)
- 1st-percentile hard-hit rate (16.8%)
Arraez is batting .301 this year with just three home runs to his name. He knows how to put good wood on the ball, but he’s rarely swinging for the fences.
His price to go over 1.5 bases today is -118, but betting on a multi-hit game at +130 makes a lot more sense. Arraez has 15 games with over 1.5 bases this year … and 14 of those were multi-hit performances.
San Diego’s offence is ice cold, tallying just three runs during its five-game losing streak. But Arraez keeps chugging along.
The left-hitting infielder is on an eight-game hit streak, and he’s batting 17-for-48 (.354) over his past 11.
Now he’ll wield a platoon advantage over Toronto starter Bowden Francis, who’s allowing a .306 xBA this year (sixth percentile).
Key stat: Arraez is 38-for-116 (.368) against right-handed pitchers this season.
Quick pick
Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-118): This price looks like a bargain based on how Guerrero is performing right now.
Here are his numbers over the past month (since April 23):
- 20 runs
- .400 OBP
- .889 OPS
- 1+ runs in 18 of 24 games
As much as I’d like to back Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+105), his propensity to reach with a walk is scaring me away. But that’s not an issue when you’re simply looking for the four-time all-star to score.
Guerrero will face Padres righty Stephen Kolek, who throws a mix of sinkers, four-seamers and sliders more than 75.0% of the time against right-hitting players.
Against those pitch types this year, Guerrero has a .348/.447/.545 slash line in 132 plate appearances.
Padres vs. Blue Jays picks made at 9:53 a.m. ET on 05/22/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.