Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Dodgers vs. Mets Sunday Night Baseball prop bets: Shohei Ohtani has value on runs prop

A rematch of the 2024 NLCS continues on Sunday Night Baseball as the New York Mets host the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The pregame narrative: L.A. won the NL pennant last year en route to a World Series title, and both teams are among the championship favourites again this season. Tonight, the Mets will hand the ball to Kodai Senga, who has a 1.43 ERA through nine starts.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Mets prop bets, featuring Senga, Shohei Ohtani and Pete Alonso.

Dodgers vs. Mets prop bets

Best Bet: Ohtani over 0.5 runs (-143)

Senga’s 1.43 ERA is the second-lowest in MLB among 88 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 50 innings. That’s not a great place to start with this prop, but it helps explain why it’s priced at a playable spot.

Because if you check out what Ohtani is up to right now, -143 to score looks like an absolute steal.

Here are the two-time reigning MVP’s numbers over his past 25 games:

.434 OBP
1.231 OPS
30 runs
1+ runs in 19 of 25
2+ times on base in 19 of 25

“Elite” might be an undersell of Ohtani’s production. He’s been otherworldly.

And for as good as Senga has been this season, the Dodgers have gotten to him in the past. L.A.’s current lineup is 10-for-34 (.294) with a .500 SLG against him.

Individually, Ohtani is 2-for-3 with a double and three walks against Senga.

I did originally look at Ohtani over 1.5 bases (-113), but the walks factor steered me away.

Ohtani has a 13.6% walk rate (89th percentile, per Baseball Savant), while Senga walks batters at a 10.8% clip (24th percentile).

One way or another, I expect Ohtani to reach base multiple times and be in a position to score.

Key Stat: Ohtani has scored a run in seven of his past nine games.

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Best MLB picks

Senga over 16.5 outs (-113): Although I like Ohtani’s price to score, I still think this is an achievable mark for Senga.

He has cashed this bet in six of his past seven starts, averaging 17.3 outs per game in that span. And he’s hit the 100-pitch mark in back-to-back outings.

The circumstances are fitting for Senga to have a long leash after Friday’s marathon game. In a 13-inning defeat, New York used seven relievers to cover 11.1 innings of work.

L.A. has a fearsome offence, but Senga has been excellent and has proven he can work fairly deep into games.

Alonso over 1.5 bases (-103): It’s a tough time to back Alonso, who has just a .203 SLG in his past 15 games.

But I’m riding with him based on a larger body of work — and the fact that he’s getting an enticing matchup tonight.

Alonso is still averaging 1.9 bases per game this year while ranking in the 99th percentile for xSLG (.616).

During his 15-game nadir, he’s still posted a 55% hard-hit rate (well above the league average of 40.9%).

Landon Knack will start for the Dodgers, and his results this year have been disastrous. The right-hander has allowed 21 runs on 33 hits in just 27.1 innings (6.17 ERA).

Alonso bats from the right side, where hitters have posted a .311/.340/.622 slash line vs. Knack so far.

Dodgers vs. Mets prop bets made at 11:23 a.m. ET on 05/25/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Rays SGP predictions May 25: Bet on Chris Bassitt to help keep bats quiet

The Toronto Blue Jays need a win on Sunday afternoon to avoid a road sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays.

The pregame narrative: Tampa is 4-1 vs. Toronto so far this season, including consecutive 3-1 victories on Friday and Saturday. Today, Chris Bassitt and Ryan Pepiot will face each other for the second time in fewer than two weeks in a game that’s sitting in pick’em territory.

Prop bets on Bassitt and Brandon Lowe are part of my +310 SGP Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions for May 25.

Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions

SGP: Under 10.5 runs | Bassitt over 4.5 Ks | Lowe over 0.5 hits (+310)

Under 10.5 runs (-167): The Rays and Jays have only scored eight combined runs through the first two games of this series, and I could see another low-scoring battle again today.

When Bassitt and Pepiot last met on May 14, both starters put forth solid efforts in an eventual 3-1 win for Toronto.

Bassitt is no stranger to pitchers’ duels, as nine of his 10 starts have come in under this run total. The average total in his outings this year is 6.0 runs.

As for Pepiot, eight of his 10 starts have finished under 10.5 runs. And the Rays are one of the most unders-friendly teams in MLB (30-19-2, 61.2%), according to Team Rankings.

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MLB SGP legs

Bassitt over 4.5 Ks (-165): Bassitt has never been a notably high strikeout guy, but he consistently works into the sixth inning. And that will always give him a shot at cashing a bet like this.

Dating back to last season, Bassitt has pitched into the sixth or later in 14 of 17 starts.

His 9.6 K/9 rate this season is a career-high (in 11 seasons).

He’s 8-2 vs. this prop and is averaging 6.1 Ks per start.

The Rays are a promising matchup for Bassitt, too. They have the 11th-highest K rate in the majors (22.7%).

Also, Bassitt has cashed this prop in all four outings against Tampa since the start of last season.

Lowe over 0.5 hits (-195): Lowe has had Bassitt’s number in the past, and I love his chances of collecting a hit today.

Lowe has 1+ hits in 10 of his past 11 games. He’s batting .350 with a 222 wRC+ in that span.

Against Bassitt, Lowe is 7-for-14 with three home runs and two doubles.

The left-hitting Lowe has a platoon advantage against Bassitt, who has allowed a .293 BA to LHHs this season.

Lowe went 2-for-3 off Bassitt with a double on May 14.

Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 05/25/2025.

Phillies vs. Athletics SGP predictions May 24: Sanchez, Philadelphia, should extend A’s losing streak

The MLB-leading Philadelphia Phillies look to keep the A’s in the loss column on Saturday night in NorCal.

The pregame narrative: Philadelphia hasn’t lost since May 14, while the A’s haven’t won since May 13. The Phillies are road favourites in what appears to be another lopsided matchup.

Check out these Phillies vs. A’s predictions, including props on Cristopher Sanchez and Jacob Wilson in a +245 SGP.

Phillies vs. A’s predictions

SGP picks: Phillies ML | Sanchez over 5.5 Ks | Wilson 1+ hits (+245)

Phillies moneyline (-175): The A’s look like a minor league team right now.

They are playing in a minor league park right now, so it fits. The A’s are on a 10-game losing streak, losing by an average of 4.7 runs per game in that span.

It won’t get easier tonight with Sanchez on the mound. He has a 3.10 ERA and a 10.8 K/9 so far this year, and the Phillies are 7-2 in his starts.

Also, the Phillies (33-18) are riding an eight-game win streak overall.

And if you think the A’s might have some semblance of a home-field advantage … think again. They are 8-18 at Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park.

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MLB SGP legs

Sanchez over 5.5 Ks (-136): The A’s don’t strike out much. That’s one of the few nice things I can say about them right now.

They have a 19.8% K rate this season, which is the sixth-lowest in MLB. But that vaults to a 22.4 K% when they face lefties (12th-lowest).

Sanchez is a three-pitch guy with one elite offering: his changeup. It generates a 49.0% whiff rate, which is the sixth-highest rate for any MLB pitch (minimum 50 plate appearances), per Baseball Savant.

The A’s have the ninth-highest whiff rate on changeups (33.0%), so I could see Sanchez racking up Ks with his preferred out pitch.

Sanchez has cashed this bet in six of nine starts this year.

Wilson 1+ hits (-305): The best story on the A’s this season might be Wilson, the sixth-overall pick from 2023 who is getting plenty of AL Rookie of the Year buzz right now.

Wilson is batting .335, which is fifth in MLB. And his .311 xBA ranks in the 96th percentile.

The right-hitting shortstop has been good against lefties and righties, but his contact numbers do trend up when a southpaw is on the mound.

Facing LHPs this season, Wilson is 12-for-34 (.353) with three doubles.

His 5.4% K rate is the lowest in the majors. That doesn’t help our Sanchez prop, but it’s a great omen for Wilson’s ability to get the bat on the ball. He also has a very low walk rate (4.9%, 14th percentile).

Wilson has cashed this bet in 37 of 49 games.

Phillies vs. A’s predictions made at 3:06 p.m. ET on 05/24/2025.

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Knicks vs. Pacers SGP predictions Game 3: Fade Hart, look for Towns to stay active on the glass

After a stunning pair of road victories, the Indiana Pacers are back home for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals with a chance to push the New York Knicks to the edge.

The pregame narrative: Indiana never trailed in the fourth quarter of Game 2, and now the team is just two wins shy of its first NBA Finals appearance since 2000. It’ll be an uphill climb for the Knicks, but they are 5-1 on the road so far in the playoffs (with four underdog victories).

Check out my Pacers vs. Knicks SGP predictions for Game 3 on May 25, featuring Karl-Anthony Towns, Josh Hart and Aaron Nesmith.

Pacers vs. Knicks predictions

Parlay: Hart under 10.5 points | Towns 10+ rebounds | Nesmith 2+ threes (+335)

Hart under 10.5 points (-129): Hart has been whisper-quiet so far in this series, totalling just 14 points through two games on nine shots.

In Game 2, he spent the first six-and-a-half minutes of the fourth quarter on the bench as the Knicks gave Miles McBride some crunch-time run. That’s not a good omen for Hart.

Hart’s 24-point night against Boston in Game 5 of the second round is starting to look like an anomaly when you stack up the rest of his recent performances.

Over his past six games, Hart has cashed this under five times. And he’s shooting just 41.7% from the floor in that span.

I just don’t trust that Hart will be involved enough on offence to clear this number.

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NBA SGP legs

Towns 10+ rebounds (-195): KAT only had seven rebounds in Game 2, but that’s an outlier compared to his recent production.

In his past 10 games, Towns is 8-2 vs. this milestone while averaging 12.1 RPG.

He also has 55 total boards in five matchups vs. the Pacers this season.

Indiana has allowed more rebounds to opponents than any other Eastern Conference playoff team. The Pacers don’t employ a 7-footer, which is part of the reason, and they play at the fastest pace of all the East teams.

KAT’s main rebounding rival is probably his teammate, Mitchell Robinson. But Robinson is a free throw liability who also happened to roll an ankle in the second half on Friday.

Even if Robinson has a normal workload (20-25 minutes), there should be enough time for KAT to get 10 boards.

Nesmith 2+ threes (-165): After going nuclear in Game 1, shooting 8-for-9 from deep, Nesmith had a more subdued showing in Game 2. But he still cashed this milestone, and I want to buy back in.

Keep in mind that the fifth-year forward has been putting on a 3-point shooting clinic for months.

March: 2.8 threes/game, 45.8 3PT%
April: 2.5 threes/game, 50.0 3PT%
May: 3.3 threes/game, 56.1 3PT%

Nesmith has cashed this bet in nine of 12 postseason games, including a 2-for-3 showing in Game 2.

I don’t understand why the Pacers aren’t consistently giving him more chances than that, but his efficiency makes him worth backing regardless.

Knicks vs. Pacers predictions made at 11:25 a.m. ET 05/24/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Rays prop picks May 24: Varsho has plus-money value to power up Toronto

The Toronto Blue Jays lost a low-scoring battle against the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday night, but Saturday’s rematch could be a different story.

The pregame narrative: The last time Shane Baz and Jose Berrios met on the mound was less than two weeks ago, and the result was an 11-9 win for the Rays. Tonight’s game has an over/under of 9 runs.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Rays prop picks on May 24, featuring Daulton Varsho and Josh Lowe.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays

Best Bet: Varsho over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (+100)

Varsho has a lot of all-or-nothing in his offensive profile right now. That’s fine with me, though, because I know he can cash this bet with one swing.

Varsho is striking out at a staggering 33.3% clip, and his .225 xBA is among the lowest in the majors.

But he’s also in elite company in terms of barrel rate (19.1%) and xSLG (.540), per Baseball Savant. MLB averages this season are an 8.7% barrel rate and a .424 xSLG.

Of his 14 hits, 11 have gone for extra bases. That’s a good way to drive in runs, or at least put yourself in position to score.

That includes a frozen-rope home run on May 13 that Varsho hit off Tampa right-hander Shane Baz, who will be on the mound again tonight.

Varsho tagged an inside fastball from Baz for a 113.9 mph exit velocity — the hardest-hit ball of his career.

Baz is having a rough go of it in May, allowing 21 runs on 30 hits in just 19.2 innings (9.61 ERA). His opponents have posted a .675 SLG in that span, which is higher than Shohei Ohtani’s season-long mark.

Key stat: Varsho has gone over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI in seven of his past nine games, as well as in 10 of 17 starts on the season.

Quick pick

Lowe over 0.5 runs (+100): After battling an oblique strain for a month and a half, Lowe is back and producing for the Rays.

Through nine games, he has a .281/.324/.563 slash line. And his .287 xBA suggests that there hasn’t been any excessive batted-ball luck so far.

I looked at Lowe’s bases prop, but I think there’s just as much value on him to score a run. The left-hitting outfielder has a platoon advantage tonight and should be up in the No. 1 or 2 spot in the Rays’ order.

When a lefty is on the mound, Lowe typically bats in the No. 6 or 7 spot.

Lowe is 4-for-13 (.308) with a double against Berrios. As a team, Tampa Bay owns a .500 SLG vs. Berrios in 104 at-bats.

Blue Jays vs. Rays picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 05/24/2025.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks Game 3: Bet on Gilgeous-Alexander, McDaniels to score in bunches

After struggling on offence in Games 1 and 2 of the Western Conference finals, the Minnesota Timberwolves look to flip the script at home on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota is down 2-0 thanks in large part to the efforts of Oklahoma City Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s been finding all sorts of ways to score. The T-wolves need someone to step up, and Jaden McDaniels has proven he’s up for the task.

Check out my Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks on SGA and McDaniels for Game 3 on May 24.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks

Best Bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 32.5 points (-108)

SGA is the only player in the world right now who’s worth this high of a points prop.

Based on what he’s shown so far in this series — and in the season as a whole, frankly — I’m content to ride with the over.

Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off a 38-point effort in Game 2. He had 31 points against the Timberwolves in the series opener.

In his past 10 playoff games, SGA is averaging 31.5 PPG. He’s 6-4 vs. this scoring line, landing on 31 points in two of the shortcomings.

He averaged an NBA-high 32.7 PPG during the regular season.

Gilgeous-Alexander has a 35.5% usage rate so far in this series, which is easily the highest of all players. He has nine more field-goal attempts (48) and 12 more free-throw attempts (29) than anyone else.

The Thunder are leaning heavily on their recently-anointed MVP, and can you blame them?

I can’t, and I don’t expect them to change that strategy. Game 3 has a 2.5-point spread in OKC’s favour, so it should be a tight game that requires another star effort from the Hamilton, Ontario native.

When he last played in Minnesota on Feb. 23, SGA had 37 points.

In six matchups against the T-wolves this year, he’s averaging 34.8 PPG. And he had at least 20 field-goal attempts and nine free-throw attempts in each of those matchups.

Key stat: Dating back to last year, Gilgeous-Alexander has 30-plus points in 14 of his past 18 playoff games.

Game 3 prop predictions

McDaniels over 13.5 points (-118): McDaniels provided a much-needed spark from the 3-point line in Game 2, going 4-for-8 from deep. The rest of the team shot just 22.6%.

That was part of a 22-point night for McDaniels, who should be well-positioned to thrive at home on Saturday.

In five games at Target Center this postseason, McDaniels is 4-1 vs. this line while averaging 17.6 PPG.

In his past five games against the Thunder, McDaniels has averaged 18.8 PPG. He cashed this bet in both regular season matchups at home vs. OKC.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks made at 9:25 a.m. ET 05/24/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Rays prop picks May 24: Varsho has plus-money value to power up Toronto

The Toronto Blue Jays lost a low-scoring battle against the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday night, but Saturday’s rematch could be a different story.

The pregame narrative: The last time Shane Baz and Jose Berrios met on the mound was less than two weeks ago, and the result was an 11-9 win for the Rays. Tonight’s game has an over/under of 9 runs.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Rays prop picks on May 24, featuring Daulton Varsho and Josh Lowe.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays

Best Bet: Varsho over 1.5 bases (+115)

Varsho has a lot of all-or-nothing in his offensive profile right now. That’s fine with me, though, because I know he can cash this bet with one swing.

Varsho is striking out at a staggering 33.3% clip, and his .225 xBA is among the lowest in the majors.

But he’s also in elite company in terms of barrel rate (19.1%) and xSLG (.540), per Baseball Savant. MLB averages this season are an 8.7% barrel rate and a .424 xSLG.

Of his 14 hits, 11 have gone for extra bases.

That includes a frozen-rope home run on May 13 that Varsho hit off Tampa right-hander Shane Baz, who will be on the mound again tonight.

Varsho tagged an inside fastball from Baz for a 113.9 mph exit velocity — the hardest-hit ball of his career.

Baz is having a rough go of it in May, allowing 21 runs on 30 hits in just 19.2 innings (9.61 ERA). His opponents have posted a .675 SLG in that span, which is higher than Shohei Ohtani’s season-long mark.

Key stat: Varsho has gone over 1.5 bases in five of his past seven games, as well as in nine of 17 starts on the season.

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Quick pick

Lowe over 0.5 runs (-107): After battling an oblique strain for a month and a half, Lowe is back and producing for the Rays.

Through nine games, he has a .281/.324/.563 slash line. And his .287 xBA suggests that there hasn’t been any excessive batted-ball luck so far.

I looked at Lowe’s bases prop, but I think there’s just as much value on him to score a run. The left-hitting outfielder has a platoon advantage tonight and should be up in the No. 1 or 2 spot in the Rays’ order.

When a lefty is on the mound, Lowe typically bats in the No. 6 or 7 spot.

Lowe is 4-for-13 (.308) with a double against Berrios. As a team, Tampa Bay owns a .500 SLG vs. Berrios in 104 at-bats.

Blue Jays vs. Rays picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 05/24/2025.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks Game 3: Bet on Gilgeous-Alexander, McDaniels to score in bunches

After struggling on offence in Games 1 and 2 of the Western Conference finals, the Minnesota Timberwolves look to flip the script at home on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota is down 2-0 thanks in large part to the efforts of Oklahoma City Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s been finding all sorts of ways to score. The T-wolves need someone to step up, and Jaden McDaniels has proven he’s up for the task.

Check out my Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks on SGA and McDaniels for Game 3 on May 24.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks

Best Bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points (-124)

SGA is the only player in the world right now who’s worth this high of a points prop.

Based on what he’s shown so far in this series — and in the season as a whole, frankly — I’m content to ride with the over.

Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off a 38-point effort in Game 2. He had 31 points against the Timberwolves in the series opener.

In his past 10 playoff games, SGA is averaging 31.5 PPG. He’s 6-4 vs. this scoring line, landing on exactly 31 points in two of the shortcomings.

He averaged an NBA-high 32.7 PPG during the regular season.

Gilgeous-Alexander has a 35.5% usage rate so far in this series, which is easily the highest of all players. He has nine more field-goal attempts (48) and 12 more free-throw attempts (29) than anyone else.

The Thunder are leaning heavily on their recently-anointed MVP, and can you blame them?

I can’t, and I don’t expect them to change that strategy. Game 3 has a 2.5-point spread in OKC’s favour, so it should be a tight game that requires another star effort from the Hamilton, Ontario native.

When he last played in Minnesota on Feb. 23, SGA had 37 points.

In six matchups against the T-wolves this year, he’s averaging 34.8 PPG. And he had at least 20 field-goal attempts and nine free-throw attempts in each of those matchups.

Key stat: Dating back to last year, Gilgeous-Alexander has 30-plus points in 14 of his past 18 playoff games.

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Game 3 prop predictions

McDaniels over 12.5 points (-130): McDaniels provided a much-needed spark from the 3-point line in Game 2, going 4-for-8 from deep. The rest of the team shot just 22.6%.

That was part of a 22-point night for McDaniels, who should be well-positioned to thrive at home on Saturday.

In five games at Target Center this postseason, McDaniels is 4-1 vs. this line while averaging 17.6 PPG.

In his past five games against the Thunder, McDaniels has averaged 18.8 PPG. He cashed this bet in both regular season matchups at home vs. OKC.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks made at 8:05 a.m. ET 05/24/2025.

Pacers vs. Knicks SGP predictions Game 2: Look for Towns to shine in high-scoring showdown

After a wild, dramatic finish in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals, the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers are back at it on Friday night for Game 2.

The pregame narrative: Indiana pulled off a stunning last-minute comeback over New York that culminated in a 138-135 overtime win. Karl-Anthony Towns (35 points, 12 rebounds) was one of the stars for the Knicks, and he should be expected to shine again.

Check out my Pacers vs. Knicks SGP predictions for Game 2 on May 23, featuring Towns and an alt total.

Pacers vs. Knicks predictions

Parlay: Knicks ML | Over 219.5 points | Towns over 23.5 points (+230)

Knicks moneyline (-250): It’s not hyperbolic to say that New York’s Game 1 loss was one of the most improbable outcomes in NBA history.

Make it 994-1. Pacers win 138-135 https://t.co/JBYMOUYPh0
— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) May 22, 2025

A monumental collapse at home is concerning for the Knicks, but it doesn’t wash away the strong showing from the team as a whole. And remember, this is the same New York squad that authored two 20-point comeback wins against the Celtics last round.

New York is 58-21 as a home favourite since the start of last year, per Team Rankings.

I expect the Knicks to build a fourth-quarter lead again — and not let it slip away this time.

NBA SGP legs

Over 219.5 points (-223): Indiana and New York didn’t need overtime to breeze past this total. They combined for 250 total points in regulation — including 70 points in a blistering first quarter.

Indiana has played at the fastest pace among all Eastern Conference playoff teams, averaging 99.03 possessions per game.

All four Knicks/Pacers matchups this year have gone over this total. The average total in those matchups is 247.5 points.

Overs are 5-1 in the past six matchups between these teams, which dates back to their second-round playoff series last May.

Also, since that 2024 playoff series, five of six meetings at Madison Square Garden have surpassed this total.

There was plenty of animosity and physicality in Game 1, but that didn’t stop these teams from running the floor and often scoring at will.

Towns over 23.5 points (-120): All these high-scoring games between Indiana and New York have coincided with some monster performances from Towns.

On Wednesday, Towns had 35 points on 11-of-17 shooting and added 12 rebounds in the Knicks’ losing effort.

KAT took eight shots from 3-point range, which matched his 2025 postseason high. Given that he went 4-for-8 from deep, I’m hopeful that he’ll keep firing.

Check out KAT’s four games vs. Indiana this year:

Oct. 25: 21 points, 32 minutes
Nov. 10: 30 points, 39 minutes
Feb. 11: 40 points, 38 minutes
May 21: 35 points, 39 minutes

Pacers vs. Knicks predictions made at 2:40 p.m. ET 05/22/2025.

Pacers vs. Knicks SGP predictions Game 2: Look for Towns to shine in high-scoring showdown

After a wild, dramatic finish in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals, the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers are back at it on Friday night for Game 2.

The pregame narrative: Indiana pulled off a stunning last-minute comeback over New York that culminated in a 138-135 overtime win. Karl-Anthony Towns (35 points, 12 rebounds) was one of the stars for the Knicks, and he should be expected to shine again.

Check out my Pacers vs. Knicks SGP predictions for Game 2 on May 23, featuring Towns and Aaron Nesmith.

Pacers vs. Knicks predictions

Parlay: Knicks ML | Over 219.5 points | Towns over 34.5 pts/reb | Nesmith 2+ threes (+410)

Knicks moneyline (-225): It’s not hyperbolic to say that New York’s Game 1 loss was one of the most improbable outcomes in NBA history.

Make it 994-1. Pacers win 138-135 https://t.co/JBYMOUYPh0
— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) May 22, 2025

A monumental collapse at home is concerning for the Knicks, but it doesn’t wash away the strong showing from the team as a whole. And remember, this is the same New York squad that authored two 20-point comeback wins against the Celtics last round.

New York is 58-21 as a home favourite since the start of last year, per Team Rankings.

I expect the Knicks to build a fourth-quarter lead again — and not let it slip away this time.

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NBA SGP legs

Over 219.5 points (-225): Indiana and New York didn’t need overtime to breeze past this total. They combined for 250 total points in regulation — including 70 points in a blistering first quarter.

Indiana has played at the fastest pace among all Eastern Conference playoff teams, averaging 99.03 possessions per game.

All four Knicks/Pacers matchups this year have gone over this total. The average total in those matchups is 247.5 points.

Overs are 5-1 in the past six matchups between these teams, which dates back to their second-round playoff series last May.

Also, since that 2024 playoff series, five of six meetings at Madison Square Garden have surpassed this total.

There was plenty of animosity and physicality in Game 1, but that didn’t stop these teams from running the floor and often scoring at will.

Towns over 34.5 points/rebounds (-124): All these high-scoring games between Indiana and New York have coincided with some monster performances from Towns.

On Wednesday, Towns had 35 points on 11-of-17 shooting and added 12 rebounds in the Knicks’ losing effort.

Will KAT cash this bet on points alone in Game 2? Probably not, but I wouldn’t put it past him. And with 11-plus rebounds in eight of his past nine games, he can afford to be a bit quieter in the scoring department.

Check out KAT’s four games vs. Indiana this year:

Oct. 25: 21 points, 15 rebounds
Nov. 10: 30 points, 9 rebounds
Feb. 11: 40 points, 12 rebounds
May 21: 35 points, 12 rebounds

Can Nesmith stay hot?

Nesmith 2+ threes (-195): Nesmith put on an all-timer of a performance in Game 1, going 8-for-9 from 3-point range. He did most of his work in the fourth quarter, dragging the Pacers out of the jaws of defeat.

Backing Nesmith at this 3s milestone isn’t a prisoner-of-the-moment thing. The fifth-year forward has been a menace from deep for months.

From March 1 through the end of the regular season, he shot 46.3% from deep and averaged 2.6 threes.

In the playoffs, Nesmith has a 53.8 3PT%, averaging 3.2 threes.

Altogether since March 1, Nesmith as 2+ threes in 24 of 33 games (72.7%).

Pacers vs. Knicks predictions made at 2:40 p.m. ET 05/22/2025.