Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

Blue Jays vs. Rangers prop picks May 27: Ride with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. , Bowden Francis in Texas

Blue Jays picks

It’s been a trying season for Bowden Francis, but he’s got a quality bounce-back chance on Tuesday night against the Texas Rangers.

The pregame narrative: Texas is 2-8 in its past 10 games, batting just .187 as a collective in that span. Francis (2-6, 5.54 ERA) authored a quality start at Globe Life Field last season and will look to do so again tonight.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Rangers prop picks on May 27, featuring Francis and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers

Best bet: Francis over 4.5 Ks (+100)

I typically look for a way to fade Francis when he’s on the mound, but this price caught my eye.

The Rangers’ offence is having a rough go of it, ranking 26th in MLB in wRC+. Francis has had trouble working deep into games this year, but Texas is unlikely to steamroll him, given how poorly the bats have fared.

And of course, the deeper he works into a game, the better his chances of cashing this bet.

Francis is 5-5 vs. this line, but he’s also only made it through 5.0 innings in half of his starts.

He doesn’t have the nastiest stuff, but it’s not as bad as it may initially seem.

All three of Francis’ off-speed pitches (splitter, slider, curveball) have a whiff rate of 34.3% or above. The MLB average whiff rate for non-fastballs is 31.9% this year, per Baseball Savant.

And remember, he’s drawing an enticing matchup tonight.

  • Over the past two weeks, the Rangers have the sixth-highest K rate in the majors (23.5%).
  • Francis had six strikeouts over 6.0 innings in Texas last year.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar result this time around.

Key stat: Opposing pitchers are 7-2 vs. a 4.5-strikeout line in the Rangers’ past nine games.

Quick pick

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+125): Backing Vladdy over 1.5 bases has been a tough pick to make this year because of his discerning eye at the plate.

Guerrero has a 13.7% walk rate, which ranks in the 90th percentile. Walks don’t count toward total bases, so that’s not good news for this bet.

But on the other side of this matchup, Nathan Eovaldi is even more diligent around the strike zone than Guerrero. The Texas starter has a 3.5% walk rate (98th percentile).

Guerrero is 10-for-23 with three extra-base hits and just one walk in his career against Eovaldi. Hopefully, the right-hander continues to challenge Vlad and forces him to put the ball in play.

In May, Guerrero has an .867 OPS and is averaging 1.7 total bases per game.

Blue Jays vs. Rangers picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 05/27/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Rangers prop picks May 27: Ride with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. , Bowden Francis in Texas

Blue Jays picks

It’s been a trying season for Bowden Francis, but he’s got a quality bounce-back chance on Tuesday night against the Texas Rangers.

The pregame narrative: Texas is 2-8 in its past 10 games, batting just .187 as a collective in that span. Francis (2-6, 5.54 ERA) authored a quality start at Globe Life Field last season and will look to do so again tonight.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Rangers prop picks on May 27, featuring Francis and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers

Best bet: Francis over 4.5 Ks (+106)

I typically look for a way to fade Francis when he’s on the mound, but this price caught my eye.

The Rangers’ offence is having a rough go of it, ranking 26th in MLB in wRC+. Francis has had trouble working deep into games this year, but Texas is unlikely to steamroll him, given how poorly the bats have fared.

And of course, the deeper he works into a game, the better his chances of cashing this bet.

Francis is 5-5 vs. this line, but he’s also only made it through 5.0 innings in half of his starts.

He doesn’t have the nastiest stuff, but it’s not as bad as it may initially seem.

All three of Francis’ off-speed pitches (splitter, slider, curveball) have a whiff rate of 34.3% or above. The MLB average whiff rate for non-fastballs is 31.9% this year, per Baseball Savant.

And remember, he’s drawing an enticing matchup tonight.

  • Over the past two weeks, the Rangers have the sixth-highest K rate in the majors (23.5%).
  • Francis had six strikeouts over 6.0 innings in Texas last year.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar result this time around.

Key stat: Opposing pitchers are 7-2 vs. a 4.5-strikeout line in the Rangers’ past nine games.

Embed: #114215

Quick pick

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+130): Backing Vladdy over 1.5 bases has been a tough pick to make this year because of his discerning eye at the plate.

Guerrero has a 13.7% walk rate, which ranks in the 90th percentile. Walks don’t count toward total bases, so that’s not good news for this bet.

But on the other side of this matchup, Nathan Eovaldi is even more diligent around the strike zone than Guerrero. The Texas starter has a 3.5% walk rate (98th percentile).

Guerrero is 10-for-23 with three extra-base hits and just one walk in his career against Eovaldi. Hopefully, the right-hander continues to challenge Vlad and forces him to put the ball in play.

In May, Guerrero has an .867 OPS and is averaging 1.7 total bases per game.

Blue Jays vs. Rangers picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 05/27/2025.

Knicks vs. Pacers SGP predictions Game 4: Bet on New York to cover, Haliburton to shine

Knicks vs. Pacers predictions

A series-shifting matchup awaits the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers on Tuesday night, as the Knicks look to even the series on the road

The pregame narrative: Road underdogs are 3-0 so far in a series that has been overflowing with drama. Indiana is a slight home favourite, as Tyrese Haliburton and co. look to stay in front.

Check out my Pacers vs. Knicks SGP predictions for Game 4 on May 27, featuring Haliburton and Josh Hart.

Pacers vs. Knicks predictions

Parlay: Knicks +5.5 | Hart 8+ rebounds | Haliburton 3+ threes (+295)

Knicks +5.5 (-190): It’s only been three games, but we’ve seen it all from this Knicks vs. Pacers series already.

  • New York led by 14 points with 3:26 left in Game 1 before losing in overtime, 138-135.
  • In Game 2, the Pacers and Knicks were tied entering the fourth quarter (and Indiana wound up winning by five).
  • On Sunday night, the Knicks won Game 3, 106-100, after trailing by as many as 20 points in the first half.

So the Knicks have blown a huge lead, overcome a huge deficit and lost a game that was close throughout. More importantly, they covered this number each time.

Road teams are 3-0 SU and ATS so far in this matchup. Another win at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is a pretty tough ask for New York, but I do expect the visiting squad to at least keep it close.

The Knicks have covered a +5.5 spread in five of six matchups vs. the Pacers this year.

Embed: #114202

NBA SGP legs

Hart 8+ rebounds (-162): I faded Hart as a scorer in Game 3, and it worked out. But I have no interest in fading him as a rebounder.

Hart has a ton of heart, for lack of a better phrase.

When there’s a loose ball up for grabs, the veteran wing plays a lot bigger than his 6-foot-4 stature.

Hart averages 2.9 contested rebounds per game, according to NBA.com, which is the second-most among all guards in the playoffs.

And he’s first among playoff guards in rebound chances per game (17.7), which counts the number of rebound opportunities in which the player is the closest to the ball at some point.

Hart has cashed this bet in five of six matchups vs. Indiana this season, averaging 9.8 RPG. He’s also 8-5 vs. this milestone in his past 13 games overall.

Haliburton 3+ threes (-177): Haliburton has done an excellent job creating space for himself beyond the arc, and he’s been very comfortable chucking high-arcing 3s against the Knicks.

According to NBA.com’s shot tracking data, 27 of Haliburton’s 30 attempted 3s in this series have come with at least four feet of separation. Any shot with 4-to-6 feet of separation is considered “open,” and beyond that is “wide open.”

Though he’s only shooting 30.0% from deep through three games, I’m heartened by the shot quality — and the volume.

Haliburton has established a nice track record of 3-point shooting success against the Knicks, and I expect more of the same on Tuesday night.

Since last year’s playoff matchup, Haliburton has averaged 3.4 triples on 9.2 attempts against New York (13 games).

Knicks vs. Pacers predictions made at 2:25 p.m. ET 05/26/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 26: Memorial Day predictions on Machado, Suarez and Herrera

MLB prop bets

It’s Memorial Day stateside, which means MLB action throughout the afternoon and evening.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Ivan Herrera has been a great story for the resurgent St. Louis Cardinals, and he draws a really enticing matchup this afternoon. Later on, Manny Machado looks to make the most of a platoon advantage, as he has for most of the season.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 26, featuring a prediction on Eugenio Suarez.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Herrera over 1.5 total bases (+120) 

The St. Louis Cardinals (30-23) are off to a surprisingly good start, and it’s been unexpected contributors like Herrera making it happen.

The backup catcher has hit his way into an everyday spot in the lineup (typically as a designated hitter), posting a .391/.463/.696 slash line.

He missed over a month with a knee injury, so the sample size is only 21 games. But the results are simply too good to ignore.

Since returning from the injured list, Herrera has cashed this bet in eight of 14 games.

No one expects Herrera to keep a Ted Williams pace for long. But his batted-ball metrics at Baseball Savant are glowing.

He’s well above average in nearly every category, most notably sitting in an elite tier for expected batting average (.320) and expected slugging percentage (.610).

Oh, and this bet is also inspired by the opposing pitcher, Charlie Morton (0-7, 7.68 ERA), who has been one of the very worst pitchers in baseball this year. Right-handed batters have posted a .903 OPS against him.

Herrera has no prior history against Morton, but I expect him to tee off in this matchup.

Key stat: Herrera is averaging 2.4 total bases in his 20 starts this season.

Best MLB picks

Suarez under 0.5 runs (-150): Suarez has been inexplicably poor against southpaws this season, and he’ll face a good one tonight.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are rolling with Andrew Heaney, who has a 2.87 ERA in his past seven outings. He has allowed two or fewer runs in five of those starts.

Suarez, who hits from the right side, has just a .111/.226/.244 slash line vs. LHPs in 53 plate appearances.

Against Heaney, Suarez is 0-for-9 with six Ks.

From the heart of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ lineup, Suarez is more typically tasked with driving in runs than scoring them himself. He has gone under 0.5 runs in 29 of 51 starts (56.9%).

Machado over 1.5 total bases (+105): I’m pleasantly surprised to see this plus-money price for Machado with a left-hander on the mound.

Machado is slugging .660 vs. LHPs this season. His 208 wRC+ against lefties ranks eighth among 154 qualified hitters.

The third baseman also has four multi-hit games in his past five and is averaging 2.1 total bases this month. What’s not to like?

Machado ranks in the 100th percentile in xBA (.331) and the 90th percentile in xSLG (.551).

MLB prop picks made at 12:35 p.m. ET on 05/26/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 26: Memorial Day predictions on Machado, Suarez and Herrera

MLB prop bets

It’s Memorial Day stateside, which means MLB action throughout the afternoon and evening.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Ivan Herrera has been a great story for the resurgent St. Louis Cardinals, and he draws a really enticing matchup this afternoon. Later on, Manny Machado looks to make the most of a platoon advantage, as he has for most of the season.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 26, featuring a prediction on Eugenio Suarez.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Herrera over 1.5 total bases (+125) 

The St. Louis Cardinals (30-23) are off to a surprisingly good start, and it’s been unexpected contributors like Herrera making it happen.

The backup catcher has hit his way into an everyday spot in the lineup (typically as a designated hitter), posting a .391/.463/.696 slash line.

He missed over a month with a knee injury, so the sample size is only 21 games. But the results are simply too good to ignore.

Since returning from the injured list, Herrera has cashed this bet in eight of 14 games.

No one expects Herrera to keep a Ted Williams pace for long. But his batted-ball metrics at Baseball Savant are glowing.

He’s well above average in nearly every category, most notably sitting in an elite tier for expected batting average (.320) and expected slugging percentage (.610).

Oh, and this bet is also inspired by the opposing pitcher, Charlie Morton (0-7, 7.68 ERA), who has been one of the very worst pitchers in baseball this year. Right-handed batters have posted a .903 OPS against him.

Herrera has no prior history against Morton, but I expect him to tee off in this matchup.

Key stat: Herrera is averaging 2.4 total bases in his 20 starts this season.

Embed: #114168

Best MLB picks

Suarez under 0.5 runs (-127): Suarez has been inexplicably poor against southpaws this season, and he’ll face a good one tonight.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are rolling with Andrew Heaney, who has a 2.87 ERA in his past seven outings. He has allowed two or fewer runs in five of those starts.

Suarez, who hits from the right side, has just a .111/.226/.244 slash line vs. LHPs in 53 plate appearances.

Against Heaney, Suarez is 0-for-9 with six Ks.

From the heart of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ lineup, Suarez is more typically tasked with driving in runs than scoring them himself. He has gone under 0.5 runs in 29 of 51 starts (56.9%).

Machado over 1.5 total bases (+115): I’m pleasantly surprised to see this plus-money price for Machado with a left-hander on the mound.

Machado is slugging .660 vs. LHPs this season. His 208 wRC+ against lefties ranks eighth among 154 qualified hitters.

The third baseman also has four multi-hit games in his past five and is averaging 2.1 total bases this month. What’s not to like?

Machado ranks in the 100th percentile in xBA (.331) and the 90th percentile in xSLG (.551).

MLB prop picks made at 10:35 a.m. ET on 05/26/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Rangers prop picks May 26: Look for deGrom, Gausman to thrive in pitchers’ duel

Blue Jays picks

In a game with the lowest over/under on the Memorial Day slate, the Toronto Blue Jays face Jacob deGrom and the Texas Rangers.

The pregame narrative: It’ll be difficult to overtake Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young race, but deGrom (4-1, 2.33 ERA) is one of the aces who’s expected to try. He has a 1.45 ERA and a .182 opponent batting average in his past five starts, and the Rangers are 4-1 in that span.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Rangers prop picks on May 26, featuring deGrom, Kevin Gausman and George Springer.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays

Best Bet: Springer under 0.5 hits (+115)

Talks of a renaissance season for Springer might have been a tad premature.

The 35-year-old outfielder, who’s seeking his first all-star nod since 2022, posted a .960 OPS in 32 games through May 6. But since then, he’s been slumping hard.

  • 7-for-56 (.125 BA)
  • .490 OPS
  • 17 Ks
  • Hitless in 10 of 15 starts

Staring down a matchup against deGrom, Springer looks like a prime fade candidate at this price.

deGrom has held right-hitting opponents to a .170/.217/.200 slash line so far through 10 starts. And his .217 xBA ranks in the 81st percentile, per Baseball Savant.

The two-time Cy Young winner is essentially a two-pitch pitcher against righty hitters, pumping upper-90s fastballs and spinning sliders with excellent run.

Springer is just 4-for-30 (.133) with 13 Ks against sliders this year, so that should be an effective out pitch for deGrom, as it often is anyway.

For a guy trying to break out of a growing slump, Springer hasn’t lucked out matchup-wise today.

Key stat: Springer is hitless in seven of his past eight starts, batting 2-for-29 (.069) in that span.

Quick pick

Gausman over 5.5 Ks (+105): Gausman had 14 Ks in two starts against the Rangers last season, cashing this bet both times.

His 8.5 K/9 this year is well below what we saw a couple of seasons ago, but he’s been reliable against this number in recent outings.

  • 6+ Ks in 6 of his past 8 starts
  • 9.8 K/9 in that span

Gausman has a 31.2% K rate against the current Rangers lineup in 103 at-bats. Also, Texas has the fourth-highest K rate in the majors over the past two weeks (24.1%).

Gausman has worked into the sixth inning or later in nine of 10 starts. If he does that again, I really like his chances of hitting this mark.

deGrom over 6.5 Ks (-112): Let’s just buy in on both sides of the pitching matchup, shall we?

deGrom has 26 Ks in his past three outings and is 4-1 vs. this prop in his past five.

He ranks in the 81st percentile or better in K rate, walk rate, chase rate and whiff rate. The limited walks are a good sign for his pitch count, while the other metrics speak to the nastiness of his arsenal.

Coming off a season-high 103 pitches, it’s nice to see that the Rangers are willing to give deGrom a long leash when he’s on.

Blue Jays vs. Rangers picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET on 05/26/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Rangers prop picks May 26: Look for deGrom, Gausman to thrive in pitchers’ duel

Blue Jays picks

In a game with the lowest over/under on the Memorial Day slate, the Toronto Blue Jays face Jacob deGrom and the Texas Rangers.

The pregame narrative: It’ll be difficult to overtake Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young race, but deGrom (4-1, 2.33 ERA) is one of the aces who’s expected to try. He has a 1.45 ERA and a .182 opponent batting average in his past five starts, and the Rangers are 4-1 in that span.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Rangers prop picks on May 26, featuring deGrom, Kevin Gausman and George Springer.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays

Best Bet: Springer under 0.5 hits (+125)

Talks of a renaissance season for Springer might have been a tad premature.

The 35-year-old outfielder, who’s seeking his first all-star nod since 2022, posted a .960 OPS in 32 games through May 6. But since then, he’s been slumping hard.

  • 7-for-56 (.125 BA)
  • .490 OPS
  • 17 Ks
  • Hitless in 10 of 15 starts

Staring down a matchup against deGrom, Springer looks like a prime fade candidate at this price.

deGrom has held right-hitting opponents to a .170/.217/.200 slash line so far through 10 starts. And his .217 xBA ranks in the 81st percentile, per Baseball Savant.

The two-time Cy Young winner is essentially a two-pitch pitcher against righty hitters, pumping upper-90s fastballs and spinning sliders with excellent run.

Springer is just 4-for-30 (.133) with 13 Ks against sliders this year, so that should be an effective out pitch for deGrom, as it often is anyway.

For a guy trying to break out of a growing slump, Springer hasn’t lucked out matchup-wise today.

Key stat: Springer is hitless in seven of his past eight starts, batting 2-for-29 (.069) in that span.

Embed: #114169

Quick pick

Gausman over 5.5 Ks (+100): Gausman had 14 Ks in two starts against the Rangers last season, cashing this bet both times.

His 8.5 K/9 this year is well below what we saw a couple of seasons ago, but he’s been reliable against this number in recent outings.

  • 6+ Ks in 6 of his past 8 starts
  • 9.8 K/9 in that span

Gausman has a 31.2% K rate against the current Rangers lineup in 103 at-bats. Also, Texas has the fourth-highest K rate in the majors over the past two weeks (24.1%).

Gausman has worked into the sixth inning or later in nine of 10 starts. If he does that again, I really like his chances of hitting this mark.

deGrom over 6.5 Ks (+100): Let’s just buy in on both sides of the pitching matchup, shall we?

deGrom has 26 Ks in his past three outings and is 4-1 vs. this prop in his past five.

He ranks in the 81st percentile or better in K rate, walk rate, chase rate and whiff rate. The limited walks are a good sign for his pitch count, while the other metrics speak to the nastiness of his arsenal.

Coming off a season-high 103 pitches, it’s nice to see that the Rangers are willing to give deGrom a long leash when he’s on.

Blue Jays vs. Rangers picks made at 10:00 a.m. ET on 05/26/2025.

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Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks Game 4: Edwards should stay heavily involved, fade Hartenstein

Thunder vs. Timberwolves picks

After steamrolling the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3, the Minnesota Timberwolves can even the Western Conference finals on Monday night at home.

The pregame narrative: Anthony Edwards showed up in a major way in Game 3, helping Minnesota earn a 42-point victory at Target Center. OKC is still the odds-on frontrunner to win the NBA Finals, though, and the visiting squad is favoured to take Game 4.

Check out my Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks on Edwards and Isaiah Hartenstein for Game 4 on May 26.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks

Best Bet: Edwards over 13.5 rebounds/assists (-118)

Edwards has his fingerprints all over this series, as you would expect from Minnesota’s alpha dog.

Check out some of the per-game stats Edwards leads the T-wolves in during the WCF:

  • Minutes (35.4)
  • Assists (5.0)
  • Rebounds (9.0)
  • Potential assists (9.0)
  • Rebound chances (13.3)

Oh, and he’s also the team’s leading scorer.

The ferocity of OKC’s defence wasn’t on full display in Game 3, but I have enough respect for the Thunder that I don’t want to mess with Edwards’ scoring prop.

But I think he has a great shot at clearing his rebounds/assists total, as he has more often than not this postseason.

Through 13 playoff games, Edwards is 9-4 vs. this line while averaging 13.9 RA.

Since February, Edwards is 5-1 vs. this line against the Thunder, averaging 15.7 RA in that span.

Edwards’ output as a scorer isn’t always predictable. But his effort level as a rebounder is. Combining that with his role as the primary facilitator, this is a solid way to back the T-wolves’ superstar guard.

Key stat: Edwards has cashed this bet in 14 of his past 19 playoff games (dating back to May 2024).

Game 4 prop predictions

Hartenstein under 18.5 points/rebounds/assists (-125): This line would’ve seemed low during the regular season, but things change.

Hartenstein has largely been a non-factor in this series, averaging just 8.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 0.7 assists (15.0 PRA).

He’s finished under this line in five straight games, which is thanks in part to a reduced minutes workload. Hartenstein is only averaging 21.6 minutes in that span, versus 26.9 minutes in his previous nine playoff games.

In his past five games against the Timberwolves, Hartenstein has gone under 18.5 PRA four times. I just don’t trust him to be a big part of OKC’s plans in this series.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks made at 3:00 p.m. ET 05/25/2025.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks Game 4: Edwards should stay heavily involved, fade Hartenstein

Thunder vs. Timberwolves picks

After steamrolling the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3, the Minnesota Timberwolves can even the Western Conference finals on Monday night at home.

The pregame narrative: Anthony Edwards showed up in a major way in Game 3, helping Minnesota earn a 42-point victory at Target Center. OKC is still the odds-on frontrunner to win the NBA Finals, though, and the visiting squad is favoured to take Game 4.

Check out my Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks on Edwards and Isaiah Hartenstein for Game 4 on May 26.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks

Best Bet: Edwards over 13.5 rebounds/assists (-120)

Edwards has his fingerprints all over this series, as you would expect from Minnesota’s alpha dog.

Check out some of the per-game stats Edwards leads the T-wolves in during the WCF:

  • Minutes (35.4)
  • Assists (5.0)
  • Rebounds (9.0)
  • Potential assists (9.0)
  • Rebound chances (13.3)

Oh, and he’s also the team’s leading scorer.

The ferocity of OKC’s defence wasn’t on full display in Game 3, but I have enough respect for the Thunder that I don’t want to mess with Edwards’ scoring prop.

But I think he has a great shot at clearing his rebounds/assists total, as he has more often than not this postseason.

Through 13 playoff games, Edwards is 9-4 vs. this line while averaging 13.9 RA.

Since February, Edwards is 5-1 vs. this line against the Thunder, averaging 15.7 RA in that span.

Edwards’ output as a scorer isn’t always predictable. But his effort level as a rebounder is. Combining that with his role as the primary facilitator, this is a solid way to back the T-wolves’ superstar guard.

Key stat: Edwards has cashed this bet in 14 of his past 19 playoff games (dating back to May 2024).

Embed: #114148

Game 4 prop predictions

Hartenstein under 18.5 points/rebounds/assists (-129): This line would’ve seemed low during the regular season, but things change.

Hartenstein has largely been a non-factor in this series, averaging just 8.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 0.7 assists (15.0 PRA).

He’s finished under this line in five straight games, which is thanks in part to a reduced minutes workload. Hartenstein is only averaging 21.6 minutes in that span, versus 26.9 minutes in his previous nine playoff games.

In his past five games against the Timberwolves, Hartenstein has gone under 18.5 PRA four times. I just don’t trust him to be a big part of OKC’s plans in this series.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks made at 2:00 p.m. ET 05/25/2025.

Dodgers vs. Mets Sunday Night Baseball prop bets: Shohei Ohtani has value on runs prop

Dodgers vs. Mets prop bets

A rematch of the 2024 NLCS continues on Sunday Night Baseball as the New York Mets host the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The pregame narrative: L.A. won the NL pennant last year en route to a World Series title, and both teams are among the championship favourites again this season. Tonight, the Mets will hand the ball to Kodai Senga, who has a 1.43 ERA through nine starts.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Mets prop bets, featuring Senga, Shohei Ohtani and Pete Alonso.

Dodgers vs. Mets prop bets

Best Bet: Ohtani over 0.5 runs (-154)

Senga’s 1.43 ERA is the second-lowest in MLB among 88 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 50 innings. That’s not a great place to start with this prop, but it helps explain why it’s priced at a playable spot.

Because if you check out what Ohtani is up to right now, -154 to score looks like an absolute steal.

Here are the two-time reigning MVP’s numbers over his past 25 games:

  • .434 OBP
  • 1.231 OPS
  • 30 runs
  • 1+ runs in 19 of 25
  • 2+ times on base in 19 of 25

“Elite” might be an undersell of Ohtani’s production. He’s been otherworldly.

And for as good as Senga has been this season, the Dodgers have gotten to him in the past. L.A.’s current lineup is 10-for-34 (.294) with a .500 SLG against him.

Individually, Ohtani is 2-for-3 with a double and three walks against Senga.

I did originally look at Ohtani over 1.5 bases (+100), but the walks factor steered me away.

Ohtani has a 13.6% walk rate (89th percentile, per Baseball Savant), while Senga walks batters at a 10.8% clip (24th percentile).

One way or another, I expect Ohtani to reach base multiple times and be in a position to score.

Key Stat: Ohtani has scored a run in seven of his past nine games.

Best MLB picks

Senga over 16.5 outs (-120): Although I like Ohtani’s price to score, I still think this is an achievable mark for Senga.

He has cashed this bet in six of his past seven starts, averaging 17.3 outs per game in that span. And he’s hit the 100-pitch mark in back-to-back outings.

The circumstances are fitting for Senga to have a long leash after Friday’s marathon game. In a 13-inning defeat, New York used seven relievers to cover 11.1 innings of work.

L.A. has a fearsome offence, but Senga has been excellent and has proven he can work fairly deep into games.

Alonso over 1.5 bases (+100): It’s a tough time to back Alonso, who has just a .203 SLG in his past 15 games.

But I’m riding with him based on a larger body of work — and the fact that he’s getting an enticing matchup tonight.

Alonso is still averaging 1.9 bases per game this year while ranking in the 99th percentile for xSLG (.616).

During his 15-game nadir, he’s still posted a 55% hard-hit rate (well above the league average of 40.9%).

Landon Knack will start for the Dodgers, and his results this year have been disastrous. The right-hander has allowed 21 runs on 33 hits in just 27.1 innings (6.17 ERA).

Alonso bats from the right side, where hitters have posted a .311/.340/.622 slash line vs. Knack so far.

Dodgers vs. Mets prop bets made at 12:43 p.m. ET on 05/25/2025.