Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks Game 6: Turner has value, Towns continues to score in bunches

The Eastern Conference finals shifts back to Indiana for Game 6, as the New York Knicks look to stave off elimination against the Pacers.

The pregame narrative: Karl-Anthony Towns was superb in Game 5 and helped lead New York to a comfortable victory. The Knicks have one win as road underdogs already in this series, but they’ll need another one to force Game 7.

I’m targeting Karl-Anthony Towns, Josh Hart and Myles Turner in my Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks for Game 6 on May 31.

Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks

Best bet: Hart over 18.5 points/rebounds (-110)

A move to the bench might’ve seemed like a death knell for Hart’s productivity at first, but that hasn’t been the case at all.

Hart, one of New York’s three “Nova Knicks,” played 34-plus minutes off the bench in Games 3-5.

His chemistry within the rotation is an obvious plus, but he’s also an elite pound-for-pound rebounder. In my view, his playing time is as safe as anyone in coach Tom Thibodeau’s inner circle.

The Knicks’ offence doesn’t flow through Hart, but he’s been efficient in this series. The 30-year-old wing is averaging 9.2 PPG on 52.0% shooting.

He’s also attempted six free throws in each of the past three games.

Even if the shooting numbers are tame on Saturday, I know Hart can get halfway to this number (or more) as a rebounder. He has 10-plus rebounds in five of his past six games.

In fact, Hart has 10-plus rebounds in seven of eight games vs. the Pacers this season (regular season and playoffs included).

Throughout the postseason, Hart has gone 11-6 against this prop while averaging 12.0 PPG and 8.9 RPG.

Whether he’s in the starting lineup or not, he’ll see big minutes and plenty of action around the ball.

Key stat: Hart has played 15 games vs. Indiana since the start of their 2024 playoff series. In that span, he’s 10-5 against this prop while averaging 23.7 PR.

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Game 6 prop prediction

Towns over 21.5 points (-125): I took the under on KAT’s points prop at this very number in Game 5. Wrong move.

How foolish of me to think that Towns’ presence on the injury report (knee, questionable) would hamper the 7-footer. He led the Knicks in shot attempts (20) and minutes (36) en route to a 24-point double-double.

Towns is now 4-1 vs. this points prop in the ECF.

He has 20+ points in all eight games vs. Indiana this year (27.3 PPG).

Towns, who was apparently playing hurt, had a physical edge to his game on Thursday that I didn’t expect. That’s certainly a good sign for his ability to cash this bet in Game 6.

Turner over 1.5 assists (+163): Turner isn’t thought of as a facilitator, but this price intrigues me.

The assist ceiling isn’t high for Turner, who’s averaging 1.5 APG this year (playoffs included). But he has cashed this bet in three of five games this series.

Dating back to last year’s Knicks/Pacers playoff matchup, Turner is 7-7 on this prop market against New York (1.7 APG).

At this price, I’ll buy that hit rate.

Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks made at 2:32 p.m. ET 05/30/2025.

Athletics vs. Blue Jays prop picks May 30: Bet on Bassitt, Kirk to perform for Toronto

The Toronto Blue Jays’ battery has my attention tonight as the team hosts the spiralling Athletics on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: Chris Bassitt looks to bounce back against an A’s squad that is 1-14 in its past 15 games. Toronto won the series opener last night, 12-0, thanks in part to a three-hit effort from catcher Alejandro Kirk.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Athletics prop picks on May 30.

Blue Jays picks vs. Athletics

Best bet: Bassitt over 5.5 Ks (-112)

The Athletics aren’t a team that strikes out too often, but even that facet of their game has gone haywire amid this extended slump.

On the season, the A’s have a 21.0% K rate, which is the 10th-lowest in the majors.

But in the past two weeks, the A’s have the sixth-highest K rate (23.9%).

Bassitt got rocked last time out (five runs on nine hits in 4.0 innings), but he’s been a much different pitcher on home turf. While I do like the match against a struggling club, the venue matters tonight, too.

Bassitt at home (5 starts): 1.61 ERA, 10.6 K/9, .665 opponent OPS

Bassitt on the road (6 starts): 4.86 ERA, 8.1 K/9, .764 opponent OPS

Bassitt is one of those kitchen sink pitchers who has seven or eight different pitches, but he generates most of his whiffs on curveballs and sweepers.

As it turns out, the A’s have been dreadful against those pitches, posting a combined 37.4% whiff rate (second-highest in MLB, per Baseball Savant).

Prior to Sunday’s dud in Tampa Bay, Bassitt had cashed this bet in three straight outings.

Look for him to stay in control against a desperate Athletics team while wielding home-field advantage.

Key stat: Bassitt is 6-5 vs. this Ks prop, averaging 5.7 Ks per start.

Quick pick

Kirk over 0.5 RBI (+160): Kirk is hitting lefties really well so far this season, posting a .371/.410/.486 slash line against them in 39 plate appearances.

Last night, with a left-handed starter on the mound, Kirk went 3-for-5 with two runs and an RBI. Now he’ll face another southpaw, Jeffrey Springs, in Game 2 of this four-game set.

Against LHPs as a team, the Jays rank ninth in wRC+ (111) and fifth in OBP (.338). There should be some traffic out there for the catcher to cash in.

Kirk has a 96th-percentile K rate (10.4%) and a 29th-percentile walk rate (6.4%), per Baseball Savant. So when he’s up at the dish, he’s almost always putting the ball in play.

Athletics vs. Blue Jays picks made at 12:25 p.m. ET on 05/30/2025.

Yankees vs. Dodgers SGP predictions May 30: Fade Betts, ride with Fried and Bellinger

In a potential World Series preview, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Yankees on Friday night at Dodger Stadium.

The pregame narrative: The Dodgers and Yankees are the favourites to come out of the NL and AL, respectively, making this a legitimate heavyweight bout. AL Cy Young hopeful Max Fried puts his pristine 7-0 record on the line against the defending-champion Dodgers.

Check out my Yankees vs. Dodgers predictions, including props on Fried, Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger in a +270 SGP.

Yankees vs. Dodgers predictions

SGP picks: Fried over 4.5 Ks | Betts under 1.5 total bases | Bellinger over 0.5 hits (+270)

Fried over 4.5 Ks (-152): Could Fried’s first season with the Yankees have started any better? I don’t think so.

The longtime Atlanta Brave is 7-0 with a 1.29 ERA and a 2.58 FIP through 11 starts. If not for a guy named Tarik Skubal, he’d be the AL Cy Young frontrunner.

Fried has never been a dominant strikeout guy, but his numbers in that regard are still solid. His 24.2 K% ranks in the 64th percentile, per Baseball Savant. And his 8.6 K/9 means he’s close to one strikeout per inning.

Given his run-suppression success, Fried is routinely working deep enough to cash this bet.

He’s 8-3 vs. this line while averaging 6.1 Ks per outing.

Last year, Fried posted 14 Ks over two starts against L.A. and cleared this total both times.

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MLB SGP legs

Betts under 1.5 total bases (-186): Betts is experiencing a power outage right now, and fading him makes a lot of sense in tonight’s matchup.

Against Fried, Betts is 2-for-30 with zero extra-base hits and nine Ks.

Betts has gone under 1.5 bases in 11 of his past 13 games.

Since May 15, Betts has a .220/.328/.340 slash line. In that span, he has more hitless games (four) than total extra-base hits (two).

Though he typically doesn’t strike out much, Betts hasn’t been consistently destroying the ball, either.

Betts has a 4.3% barrel rate, which ranks in the 16th percentile among all hitters.

Bellinger over 0.5 hits (-215): Bellinger entered play on May 4 below the Mendoza Line, but he’s really turned up the heat since then.

In 20 games since then, the ex-Dodger has batted .338 with a 1.019 OPS. His expected batting average in that time is .302, so it’s not like he’s wildly out-performing his batted-ball quality.

Also, Bellinger has recorded a hit in 16 of his past 20 games.

Bellinger’s lefty/righty career splits are marginally different, but he should still have an advantage against Dodgers right-hander Tony Gonsolin.

Left-hitting players have a .294 BA vs. Gonsolin through five games this season.

Yankees vs. Dodgers predictions made at 11:30 a.m. ET on 05/30/2025.

Athletics vs. Blue Jays prop picks May 30: Bet on Bassitt, Kirk to perform for Toronto

The Toronto Blue Jays’ battery has my attention tonight as the team hosts the spiralling Athletics on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: Chris Bassitt looks to bounce back against an A’s squad that is 1-14 in its past 15 games. Toronto won the series opener last night, 12-0, thanks in part to a three-hit effort from catcher Alejandro Kirk.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Athletics prop picks on May 30.

Blue Jays picks vs. Athletics

Best bet: Bassitt over 5.5 Ks (-117)

The Athletics aren’t a team that strikes out too often, but even that facet of their game has gone haywire amid this extended slump.

On the season, the A’s have a 21.0% K rate, which is the 10th-lowest in the majors.

But in the past two weeks, the A’s have the sixth-highest K rate (23.9%).

Bassitt got rocked last time out (five runs on nine hits in 4.0 innings), but he’s been a much different pitcher on home turf. While I do like the match against a struggling club, the venue matters tonight, too.

Bassitt at home (5 starts): 1.61 ERA, 10.6 K/9, .665 opponent OPS

Bassitt on the road (6 starts): 4.86 ERA, 8.1 K/9, .764 opponent OPS

Bassitt is one of those kitchen sink pitchers who has seven or eight different pitches, but he generates most of his whiffs on curveballs and sweepers.

As it turns out, the A’s have been dreadful against those pitches, posting a combined 37.4% whiff rate (second-highest in MLB, per Baseball Savant).

Prior to Sunday’s dud in Tampa Bay, Bassitt had cashed this bet in three straight outings.

Look for him to stay in control against a desperate Athletics team while wielding home-field advantage.

Key stat: Bassitt is 6-5 vs. this Ks prop, averaging 5.7 Ks per start.

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Quick pick

Kirk over 0.5 RBI (+163): Kirk is hitting lefties really well so far this season, posting a .371/.410/.486 slash line against them in 39 plate appearances.

Last night, with a left-handed starter on the mound, Kirk went 3-for-5 with two runs and an RBI. Now he’ll face another southpaw, Jeffrey Springs, in Game 2 of this four-game set.

Against LHPs as a team, the Jays rank ninth in wRC+ (111) and fifth in OBP (.338). There should be some traffic out there for the catcher to cash in.

Kirk has a 96th-percentile K rate (10.4%) and a 29th-percentile walk rate (6.4%), per Baseball Savant. So when he’s up at the dish, he’s almost always putting the ball in play.

Athletics vs. Blue Jays picks made at 9:25 a.m. ET on 05/30/2025.

Athletics vs. Blue Jays prop picks May 29: Fade Bo Bichette, look to Jacob Wilson for value

To kickstart a six-game homestand, the Toronto Blue Jays host the floundering Athletics on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: The A’s are 1-13 in their past 14 games and now have the second-worst run differential in the American League (-89). Unsurprisingly, the Blue Jays are favoured to win tonight at Rogers Centre.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Athletics prop picks on May 29, featuring Jacob Wilson and Bo Bichette.

Blue Jays picks vs. Athletics

Best bet: Wilson over 0.5 runs (+120)

I don’t understand this price, but it has my attention.

Wilson is piling up hits at an elite clip, and he bats right at the top of the Athletics’ order.

Since May 7, Wilson has been the A’s leadoff or No. 2 hitter in every game. And the rookie has earned that promotion.

The sixth-overall pick in the 2023 draft is batting .353, which is the third-highest BA in the majors.

He hardly ever walks, but he also has the second-lowest strikeout rate in MLB (5.4%).

In 18 games since moving up to the Nos. 1 and 2 spots in the lineup for good, Wilson has a .377/.449/.638 slash line.

Somehow, he’s only scored 11 runs in those 18 games. The A’s have a 103 wRC+ with runners on base — and a 101 wRC+ with runners in scoring position — so it’s not like the lineup as a whole should be dragging him down.

Run props are all about opportunities, and Wilson is generating plenty of those right now. I think there’s some serious value at this price.

Key stat: Wilson has scored a run in 24 of 53 games (45.3%).

Quick pick

Bichette under 1.5 total bases (-125): Bichette was the hero for Toronto last night, ripping a pinch-hit homer in the ninth inning to lift the Jays to a 2-0 win.

The shortstop had been dealing with lower-back tightness, which is why he was coming off the bench in the first place. I’m not sure if that tightness will be a factor tonight, but it’s something to consider.

My main reason for fading Bichette is that he’s been dreadful against lefties since the start of last season:

16-for-99 (.162)
.192 SLG

Bichette is 0-for-3 with a 40.0% whiff rate against A’s starter Jacob Lopez (0-2, 2.57 ERA), who has fared well in an extremely limited sample.

Last time out, Lopez held a loaded Philadelphia Phillies squad to one run on three hits in 7.0 innings.

Athletics vs. Blue Jays picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET on 05/29/2025.

Athletics vs. Blue Jays prop picks May 29: Fade Bo Bichette, look to Jacob Wilson for value

To kickstart a six-game homestand, the Toronto Blue Jays host the floundering Athletics on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: The A’s are 1-13 in their past 14 games and now have the second-worst run differential in the American League (-89). Unsurprisingly, the Blue Jays are favoured to win tonight at Rogers Centre.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Athletics prop picks on May 29, featuring Jacob Wilson and Bo Bichette.

Blue Jays picks vs. Athletics

Best bet: Wilson over 0.5 runs (+140)

I don’t understand this price, but it has my attention.

Wilson is piling up hits at an elite clip, and he bats right at the top of the Athletics’ order.

Since May 7, Wilson has been the A’s leadoff or No. 2 hitter in every game. And the rookie has earned that promotion.

The sixth-overall pick in the 2023 draft is batting .353, which is the third-highest BA in the majors.

He hardly ever walks, but he also has the second-lowest strikeout rate in MLB (5.4%).

In 18 games since moving up to the Nos. 1 and 2 spots in the lineup for good, Wilson has a .377/.449/.638 slash line.

Somehow, he’s only scored 11 runs in those 18 games. The A’s have a 103 wRC+ with runners on base — and a 101 wRC+ with runners in scoring position — so it’s not like the lineup as a whole should be dragging him down.

Run props are all about opportunities, and Wilson is generating plenty of those right now. I think there’s some serious value at this price.

Key stat: Wilson has scored a run in 24 of 53 games (45.3%). The implied probability of this prop is 41.7%.

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Quick pick

Bichette under 1.5 total bases (-121): Bichette was the hero for Toronto last night, ripping a pinch-hit homer in the ninth inning to lift the Jays to a 2-0 win.

The shortstop had been dealing with lower-back tightness, which is why he was coming off the bench in the first place. I’m not sure if that tightness will be a factor tonight, but it’s something to consider.

My main reason for fading Bichette is that he’s been dreadful against lefties since the start of last season:

16-for-99 (.162)
.192 SLG

Bichette is 0-for-3 with a 40.0% whiff rate against A’s starter Jacob Lopez (0-2, 2.57 ERA), who has fared well in an extremely limited sample.

Last time out, Lopez held a loaded Philadelphia Phillies squad to one run on three hits in 7.0 innings.

Athletics vs. Blue Jays picks made at 10:55 a.m. ET on 05/29/2025.

Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks Game 5: Fade Towns amid knee concerns, bet on Haliburton

The New York Knicks need a win on Thursday night to keep their season alive.

The pregame narrative: New York is a -175 favourite at home against the Indiana Pacers, who are one win away from their first NBA Finals appearance in 25 years. Indiana typically deploys a balanced approach, but Tyrese Haliburton exploded last game with a 32-point triple-double.

I’m targeting Haliburton and fading a banged-up Karl-Anthony Towns in my Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks for Game 5 on May 29.

Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks

Best bet: Haliburton over 9.5 assists (-143)

Haliburton is coming off an absolutely masterful performance against the Knicks in Game 4, when he finished with 32 points, 12 rebounds and 15 assists.

That matched his highest assist total of this playoff run and brought his postseason-long average up to 9.8 APG.

Haliburton, 24, has been an elite passer in the NBA for years now. Since being traded to the Pacers in the middle of 2021-22, he has averaged 10.1 assists in regular-season play.

Last year, Haliburton was the NBA assist leader (10.9 APG).

All of this is to say that a 10-assist night is well within reach for the Indiana point guard. After all, he’s cashed this bet in three of four games in this series — and eight of 14 in the playoffs.

One of the Pacers’ greatest strengths is their scoring depth. They had eight players this season who averaged north of 9.0 PPG.

What that tells me is that Haliburton has no shortage of scoring outlets to dish to. He leads the NBA playoffs in passes per game (76.1) and should continue to rack up assists.

Key stat: Haliburton is 4-2 vs. this prop when facing the Knicks this season, cashing the bet in both matchups in New York.

Game 5 prop prediction

Towns under 21.5 points (-118): Towns is clearly playing hurt, and I’m sure he’ll gut it out again with the Knicks’ season on life support. I’m just skeptical about his ability to put up big numbers on a bad knee.

Towns suffered a knee-on-knee collision late in the fourth quarter of Game 4 and was in obvious pain. He stayed in, but he didn’t mask his discomfort.

Karl Anthony Towns keeps “flexing” his left knee and seems bothered last couple of mins

This is the SAME knee he had a meniscus surgery in 2024 pic.twitter.com/VZq8uxdTC1
— Dr. Evan Jeffries, DPT (@GameInjuryDoc) May 26, 2025

Towns has gone over 21.5 points in three of four games in the Eastern Conference finals. But the under is still 9-7 for him at this number in the playoffs.

The 7-footer, who is officially listed as questionable with a knee contusion, is already a target on switches when Indiana gets into its half-court offence.

Assuming his mobility is hampered by this injury, Indiana should only attack him more. If so, that should lead to foul trouble or the necessity of a lineup change.

Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks made at 10:02 a.m. ET 05/29/2025.

Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks Game 5: Fade Towns amid knee concerns, bet on Haliburton

The New York Knicks need a win on Thursday night to keep their season alive.

The pregame narrative: New York is a -175 favourite at home against the Indiana Pacers, who are one win away from their first NBA Finals appearance in 25 years. Indiana typically deploys a balanced approach, but Tyrese Haliburton exploded last game with a 32-point triple-double.

I’m targeting Haliburton and fading a banged-up Karl-Anthony Towns in my Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks for Game 5 on May 29.

Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks

Best bet: Haliburton over 9.5 assists (-122)

Haliburton is coming off an absolutely masterful performance against the Knicks in Game 4, when he finished with 32 points, 12 rebounds and 15 assists.

That matched his highest assist total of this playoff run and brought his postseason-long average up to 9.8 APG.

Haliburton, 24, has been an elite passer in the NBA for years now. Since being traded to the Pacers in the middle of 2021-22, he has averaged 10.1 assists in regular-season play.

Last year, Haliburton was the NBA assist leader (10.9 APG).

All of this is to say that a 10-assist night is well within reach for the Indiana point guard. After all, he’s cashed this bet in three of four games in this series — and eight of 14 in the playoffs.

One of the Pacers’ greatest strengths is their scoring depth. They had eight players this season who averaged north of 9.0 PPG.

What that tells me is that Haliburton has no shortage of scoring outlets to dish to. He leads the NBA playoffs in passes per game (76.1) and should continue to rack up assists.

Key stat: Haliburton is 4-2 vs. this prop when facing the Knicks this season, cashing the bet in both matchups in New York.

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Game 5 prop prediction

Towns under 21.5 points (-125): Towns is clearly playing hurt, and I’m sure he’ll gut it out again with the Knicks’ season on life support. I’m just skeptical about his ability to put up big numbers on a bad knee.

Towns suffered a knee-on-knee collision late in the fourth quarter of Game 4 and was in obvious pain. He stayed in, but he didn’t mask his discomfort.

Karl Anthony Towns keeps “flexing” his left knee and seems bothered last couple of mins

This is the SAME knee he had a meniscus surgery in 2024 pic.twitter.com/VZq8uxdTC1
— Dr. Evan Jeffries, DPT (@GameInjuryDoc) May 26, 2025

Towns has gone over 21.5 points in three of four games in the Eastern Conference finals. But the under is still 9-7 for him at this number in the playoffs.

The 7-footer, who is officially listed as questionable with a knee contusion, is already a target on switches when Indiana gets into its half-court offence.

Assuming his mobility is hampered by this injury, Indiana should only attack him more. If so, that should lead to foul trouble or the necessity of a lineup change.

Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks made at 9:12 a.m. ET 05/29/2025.

Yankees vs. Angels SGP predictions May 27: Look for Judge to mash, Rodon to keep L.A. in check

A pair of capable lefties are on the mound Tuesday night as the Los Angeles Angels host the New York Yankees.

The pregame narrative: Tyler Anderson, who allowed two runs in 11.0 innings against the Yankees last year, gets the ball for the home team. He’s up against Carlos Rodon, who is 5-0 with a 1.48 ERA in his past seven starts.

Check out my Yankees vs. Angels predictions, including props on Rodon and Aaron Judge in a +330 SGP.

Yankees vs. Angels predictions

SGP picks: Rodon over 6.5 Ks | Judge over 1.5 total bases | Under 10.5 runs (+335)

Rodon over 6.5 Ks (-165): Rodon has a nice chance to cash this bet in any given outing. But tonight’s matchup makes me particularly bullish.

The Angels have the second-highest K rate vs. left-handed pitchers (27.3%), as well as the third-highest K rate of the past two weeks (26.4%).

Rodon’s third season with the Yankees is shaping up to be his best. He has a 2.88 ERA and an 11.0 K/9 through 11 starts.

He’s 8-3 vs. this prop and has a strong 26.6 K% vs. the Angels’ current lineup (64 plate appearances), per Baseball Savant.

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MLB SGP legs

Judge over 1.5 total bases (-143): With the kind of season Judge is having, this is absolutely a playable price to just bet this straight up. But that also means it fits nicely into the SGP, of course.

Judge is the runaway AL MVP favourite, which isn’t something that’s supposed to exist in May. But here we are.

Through 53 games, Judge has a 1.248 OPS and is averaging 2.9 total bases. He’s 36-17 vs. this prop.

If any doubt should creep in regarding this pick, it comes from the fact that Judge is 0-for-6 with three Ks against Anderson.

But Judge has been the best hitter in baseball vs. LHPs this year (1.182 SLG, 368 wRC+), so you can be sure that a six-at-bat sample won’t sway me.

Under 10.5 runs (-200): Although I’m hoping Judge continues to tee off, I don’t expect the game to be overrun by offence.

Last night’s matchup finished 5-1 in the Yankees’ favour. That marked New York’s 10th time in 12 games going under 10.5 runs.

Both starting pitchers have an ERA of 3.60 or below, which is also a positive indicator for this pick.

This under has cashed in 9 of Rodon’s 11 starts.

Anderson has a 2.51 ERA and a .190 opponent BA at home this year. This under is 4-1 in his home starts.

Yankees vs. Angels predictions made at 1:00 p.m. ET on 05/27/2025.

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Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks Game 4: Fade Brunson, look for Nembhard to stay consistent

Despite a dud from Jalen Brunson, the New York Knicks got into the win column in Game 3 and can level the Eastern Conference finals on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Brunson finished with 23 points on 6-of-18 shooting, and he spent the majority of the final quarter glued to the bench. The Indiana Pacers are 2.5-point home favourites to win tonight and claim a commanding 3-1 series lead.

I’m targeting Brunson and Andrew Nembhard in my Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks for Game 4 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on May 27.

Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks

Best bet: Nembhard over 11.5 points (-108)

Nembhard fits in perfectly with the Pacers, a team built on depth over superstardom.

Though he’s unlikely to put up gaudy volume stats, the Aurora, Ontario, native is an expert in efficiency.

His 50.0/50.0/83.3 shooting splits are superb. And there are enough opportunities on a nightly basis for me to feel good about this point total.

Check out his averages through 13 playoff games:

14.0 points/game
10.5 field-goal attempts/game
33.6 minutes/game

Those averages make this total look well within reach, and the steadiness of Nembhard’s stat lines backs it up.

He has attempted seven-plus shots in every game while playing 30-plus minutes in 11 of 13.

I don’t mind that Nembhard is coming off a 2-for-9 shooting effort. A night like that has been an anomaly, and his high floor overall makes this play worthwhile.

Key stat: Nembhard has gone over 11.5 points in nine of 13 postseason games.

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Game 4 prop prediction

Brunson under 30.5 points (-127): With a little juice, I think this price is worth it to fade Brunson on the road at a big number.

His home/road splits in the playoffs aren’t wildly different, but there are still notable discrepancies.

Home (8 games): 31.9 PPG, 47.8 FG%, 36.5 3PT%, 8.8 free throws/game

Road (7 games): 27.6 PPG, 41.7 FG%, 33.3 3PT%, 7.6 free throws/game

Brunson has now gone under this total in four straight road games, as well as five of seven overall.

He has also struggled to stay out of foul trouble, committing 13 fouls through three games in this series. That sort of behaviour can bite into his minutes.

The Knicks staged a fourth-quarter comeback largely without Brunson in Game 3, so maybe they don’t need to lean on him quite as hard as many people think.

Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks made at 11:32 a.m. ET 05/27/2025.