Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals betting preview: Stats, trends and odds for championship series

With the NBA Finals set to begin this week, let’s take a closer look at the unexpected matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers.

The latest: OKC, coming off its second season atop the Western Conference, was believed to be a championship-calibre squad all season long. Indiana, however, is a stunning Finals entrant as the No. 4 seed in the East. Both teams are deep and accustomed to playing at a frenetic pace.

Check out our Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals betting preview and odds for the series.

Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals preview

OKC is a massive favourite to win, and it’s easy to see why.

After an NBA-high 68 wins in the regular season, the Thunder have remained dominant in the playoffs and posted a +11.2 net rating (for context, in the regular season, they were the only team with a net rating above 10.0).

Despite the presence of a clear favourite and underdog, this NBA Finals matchup isn’t a clash of styles.

Depth is an asset on both sides, as OKC and Indiana are accustomed to playing eight or nine players on a nightly basis.

They both rank in the top three in fast-break points and pace this postseason.

The Thunder were expected to be here. The Pacers were not. But both have earned their spots by taking care of the basketball, rolling deep lineups and wearing down their opponents with fast-paced play.

NBA Finals preview: Series markets

Embed: #114408

As -715 favourites, the Thunder’s implied probability to win this series is 87.7%.

That’s far from the norm in a championship series, but it speaks to how well the Thunder have performed all season long.

Indiana is no stranger to the underdog role, mind you. The Pacers weren’t expected to knock out the Knicks or the top-seeded Cavaliers.

Of its 12 postseason wins so far, Indiana was the underdog for seven of them.

Unless you’re eyeing the Pacers to pull off a hefty upset, it makes more sense to scope out some other series markets:

Market	Betting odds
Thunder -2.5	-124
Pacers +2.5	-108
Thunder -1.5	-278
Pacers +1.5	+200
Over 5.5 games	+110
Under 5.5 games	-148
Over 6.5 games	+350
Under 6.5 games	-560

Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. NBA odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET on 06/02/2025.

OKC’s case to win

Youth doesn’t always mean inexperience, and OKC is proof of that.

After claiming the No. 1 seed in a loaded Western Conference last season, the Thunder entered 2024-25 as the youngest team in the NBA (24.15 years old).

Entering the Finals, OKC’s average age is 25.33 years, per NBA.com, making it the fourth-youngest team ever to reach this stage.

The Thunder play with a youthful energy, especially on defence. They’re leading the postseason in turnovers forced (18.0/game), defensive rating (104.7) and percentage of points off turnovers (20.3%).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, fresh off an MVP coronation, gives OKC the best individual performer in this matchup. With two rotational 7-footers, the Thunder also have more size than the Pacers. And let’s not forget how menacing Alex Caruso and Lu Dort are as wing defenders.

During the regular season, the Thunder went 2-0 vs. the Pacers. OKC won their most recent matchup, 132-111, at home on March 29.

Indiana’s case to win

If the Pacers are going to pull this off — and it’s a sizeable if — I think they have to do two things really, really well.

1. Keep turnovers to a minimum. As mentioned, OKC is as good as it gets in terms of forcing turnovers and capitalizing on them. But the Pacers have done well to limit their gaffes in that regard, posting the third-lowest turnover rate in the postseason (12.7%). Indiana can’t afford to cough up many easy buckets in this series, especially in the non-SGA minutes.

2. Over-index on 3-point shooting. Only 39.1% of the Pacers’ field goal attempts have come from beyond the arc, which ranks 11th of 16 playoff teams. But Indiana has been No. 1 in the postseason in 3PT% (40.1). OKC is 13th in 3PT% (33.6), so this is a rare area where the Pacers have a distinct advantage.

Protect the ball and take more shots from deep. That’s the basic formula that gives the Pacers their best shot.

NBA Finals preview: Star spotlight

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
Position: Point guard
’25 playoff stats: 29.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 85.7 FT%

Gilgeous-Alexander has -5,000 odds to lead the Finals in scoring, which is one way to illustrate his importance in this matchup.

The regular season scoring champ already has 10 playoff games with 30-plus points and five-plus assists. Since 1963, only LeBron James and Michael Jordan have ever had more in a single postseason.

During the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander scored 45 and 33 points, respectively, in his two matchups vs. Indiana. He also had seven rebounds and eight assists in both games.

Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers)
Position: Point guard
’25 playoff stats: 18.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 9.8 assists, nine double-doubles

Haliburton’s single-greatest moment of the 2025 postseason was his game-tying buzzer-beater against the Knicks in Game 1 of the ECF. Can he top that in the Finals?

People often use the term “clutch” anecdotally, but there are ways to quantify it, too. In the NBA, clutch time refers to the final five minutes of regulation or overtime when the score is within five points.

Haliburton has an NBA-high 8.0 assist-to-turnover ratio in clutch time this postseason. But he’s been a cold-blooded shooter in the biggest moments all year long, too.

Here’s another way to define Hali’s clutch gene, according to Tom Haberstroh on Substack: Haliburton is 12-for-14 this season on shots to tie or take the lead in the final two minutes. Sheesh.

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Betting trends

OKC Thunder
– 60-35-4 ATS (1st in the NBA)
– 58-34-4 ATS in home games (2nd)
– 43-7 SU in home games (1st)
– Overs are 29-20-1 in home games (7th)
– 2-0 ATS vs. Indiana this year

Indiana Pacers
– 47-48-3 ATS (17th)
– 23-17-1 ATS as underdogs (5th)
– 22-19 SU as underdogs (2nd)
– Overs are 26-21-1 in road games (12th)
– Overs are 25-14-2 as underdogs (4th)

NBA Finals prediction

My pick: Thunder -2.5 games (-124)

The star power, the size and even the depth. It’s all on OKC’s side.

No disrespect to the Pacers, but they fall short of the Thunder in all sorts of key areas. Indiana also has three wins this postseason in which it trailed by seven-plus points in the final minute. I don’t see anything like that happening against OKC.

The Thunder cashed this bet in the first round against Memphis and in the WCF against Minnesota. Having home-court advantage puts OKC in a great spot to win in four or five.

Some SPECIAL playoff home cooking in OKC 🚨

⛈️ 8-1 record
⛈️ +24.6 average margin (+221 total)
⛈️ Four 30+ point wins
⛈️ Five 25+ point wins pic.twitter.com/UU5Xaoq7Gt
— NBA (@NBA) May 29, 2025

Pacers vs. Thunder predictions made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 06/02/2025.

Mets vs. Dodgers prop bets June 2: Pete Alonso has value on his bases prop in L.A.

A pair of NL division leaders clash at Dodger Stadium on Monday night, as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets.

The pregame narrative: The Dodgers just put up 29 runs over three games against the Yankees, and now they’ll see a Mets squad that is 7-1 in its past eight games. New York won two of three games against L.A. less than two weeks ago, and this week’s four-game set will conclude their season series.

Check out my Mets vs. Dodgers prop bets, featuring Pete Alonso, Max Muncy and Dustin May.

Mets vs. Dodgers prop bets

Best Bet: Alonso over 1.5 total bases (+120)

May wasn’t a great month for Alonso, but I’m not sure I’d go as far as calling it a slump.

Alonso has posted a .234/.281/.432 slash line since May 1. His expected numbers in that span, according to Baseball Savant, paint a more encouraging story:

.279 xBA
.317 xOBP
.545 xSLG

Alonso still recorded a 95-plus mph exit velocity or greater (i.e., a “hard-hit” ball) on more than 50% of his balls in play since May 1. Consistently mashing the baseball is always a good place to start for a bases prop.

If you’re with me that Alonso’s recent dip in production is not as concerning as it initially seems, it’s easy to buy in on a guy who’s having a stellar season overall.

The first baseman ranks in the 96th percentile or above in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xSLG and average exit velocity.

Now he faces May, who has struggled to limit hard contact over his past several outings.

In seven games since April 22, May has coughed up a 47% hard-hit rate and posted a 5.59 ERA in 38.2 innings. He’s allowed at least one home run in five straight starts.

Key Stat: Alonso is averaging 2.0 bases/game this season and is 6-2 vs. this prop in his past eight games.

Best MLB picks

May over 5.5 Ks (+105): This isn’t a great matchup for May to rack up strikeouts, but the plus-money price is compelling nonetheless.

I mentioned that May has been giving up a lot of hard contact, but he’s also putting out his own fires with solid strikeout volume.

4-1 vs. this line last month
5.8 Ks/start this season
8+ Ks in three straight outings

May has dealt with a myriad of injuries throughout his career, and he no longer has an upper-90s fastball from when he broke into the majors.

But three of his four pitches have a whiff rate above 30.0% (MLB average is 25.0%), though, so he still has multiple ways to keep hitters guessing.

Muncy over 0.5 RBI (+140): Riding a hot streak, and staring down a lefty-righty platoon advantage, I love Muncy’s value to drive in a run tonight.

Munch has consistently batted in the Nos. 4-6 spots in the Dodgers’ order since the start of May. So he’s always in a prime RBI spot.

Over his past 16 games, Muncy has a .320/.422/.700 slash line with 23 RBI. He’s 10-3 vs. this prop over 13 starts in that span.

The left-hitting Muncy has an .886 OPS (141 wRC+) vs. right-handed pitchers dating back to the 2023 season.

Keep in mind that Mets starter Paul Blackburn is making his season debut tonight. He had a 4.66 ERA in 14 starts last year while posting a .266 xBA (14th percentile).

Mets vs. Dodgers prop bets made at 2:10 p.m. ET on 06/02/2025.

Mets vs. Dodgers prop bets June 2: Pete Alonso has value on his bases prop in L.A.

A pair of NL division leaders clash at Dodger Stadium on Monday night, as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets.

The pregame narrative: The Dodgers just put up 29 runs over three games against the Yankees, and now they’ll see a Mets squad that is 7-1 in its past eight games. New York won two of three games against L.A. less than two weeks ago, and this week’s four-game set will conclude their season series.

Check out my Mets vs. Dodgers prop bets, featuring Pete Alonso, Max Muncy and Dustin May.

Mets vs. Dodgers prop bets

Best Bet: Alonso over 1.5 total bases (+128)

May wasn’t a great month for Alonso, but I’m not sure I’d go as far as calling it a slump.

Alonso has posted a .234/.281/.432 slash line since May 1. His expected numbers in that span, according to Baseball Savant, paint a more encouraging story:

.279 xBA
.317 xOBP
.545 xSLG

Alonso still recorded a 95-plus mph exit velocity or greater (i.e., a “hard-hit” ball) on more than 50% of his balls in play since May 1. Consistently mashing the baseball is always a good place to start for a bases prop.

If you’re with me that Alonso’s recent dip in production is not as concerning as it initially seems, it’s easy to buy in on a guy who’s having a stellar season overall.

The first baseman ranks in the 96th percentile or above in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xSLG and average exit velocity.

Now he faces May, who has struggled to limit hard contact over his past several outings.

In seven games since April 22, May has coughed up a 47% hard-hit rate and posted a 5.59 ERA in 38.2 innings. He’s allowed at least one home run in five straight starts.

Key Stat: Alonso is averaging 2.0 bases/game this season and is 6-2 vs. this prop in his past eight games.

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Best MLB picks

May over 5.5 Ks (+120): This isn’t a great matchup for May to rack up strikeouts, but the plus-money price is compelling nonetheless.

I mentioned that May has been giving up a lot of hard contact, but he’s also putting out his own fires with solid strikeout volume.

4-1 vs. this line last month
5.8 Ks/start this season
8+ Ks in three straight outings

May has dealt with a myriad of injuries throughout his career, and he no longer has an upper-90s fastball from when he broke into the majors.

But three of his four pitches have a whiff rate above 30.0% (MLB average is 25.0%), though, so he still has multiple ways to keep hitters guessing.

Muncy over 0.5 RBI (+163): Riding a hot streak, and staring down a lefty-righty platoon advantage, I love Muncy’s value to drive in a run tonight.

Munch has consistently batted in the Nos. 4-6 spots in the Dodgers’ order since the start of May. So he’s always in a prime RBI spot.

Over his past 16 games, Muncy has a .320/.422/.700 slash line with 23 RBI. He’s 10-3 vs. this prop over 13 starts in that span.

The left-hitting Muncy has an .886 OPS (141 wRC+) vs. right-handed pitchers dating back to the 2023 season.

Keep in mind that Mets starter Paul Blackburn is making his season debut tonight. He had a 4.66 ERA in 14 starts last year while posting a .266 xBA (14th percentile).

Mets vs. Dodgers prop bets made at 9:12 a.m. ET on 06/02/2025.

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Knicks vs. Pacers SGP predictions Game 6: Fade offence, look for Anunoby to bounce back

Down 3-2 in the Eastern Conference finals, the New York Knicks are back on the road to face the Indiana Pacers.

The pregame narrative: Indiana, 4-1 as a home favourite this postseason, is a -175 favourite to win on Saturday night and advance to the NBA Finals. The Knicks held the Pacers to 94 points last time out, which was Indiana’s lowest total since Feb. 4.

Check out my Knicks vs. Pacers SGP predictions for Game 6 on May 31, featuring OG Anunoby and Aaron Nesmith.

Knicks vs. Pacers predictions

Parlay: Under 225.5 points | Nesmith under 11.5 points | Anunoby over 1.5 threes (+320)

Under 225.5 points (-167): This series started blazing fast out of the gates, but the track-meet style of play hasn’t stuck around.

After a 273-point total in Game 1, the ensuing four games have averaged 221.3 points.

Unders are 3-1 in the past four games of this series.

Unders are 10-8-2 when the Knicks are road underdogs, per Team Rankings. Also, unders are 19-17-0 when the Pacers are home favourites.

From Games 2-5, the pace has been 96.88 possessions per 48 minutes. That’s roughly two-and-a-half possessions fewer than what Indiana had averaged through its first 15 playoff games.

As we hit the crunch time portion of the series, I wouldn’t be surprised to see both teams continue to take a slightly more cautious approach.

NBA SGP legs

Nesmith under 11.5 points (-125): Nesmith’s 30-point performance in Game 1, featuring 8-of-9 shooting from beyond the arc, will always be the stuff of legends.

But that’s nowhere near his typical output, and he’s since come back down to Earth.

In his past four games, Nesmith is averaging 9.8 points on 37.5% shooting from the floor. He’s cashed this under in two of his past three matchups.

After his series-opening explosion, you might’ve expected the Pacers to continue feeding the fifth-year small forward. But heat checks don’t always carry from one game to another.

With single-digit shot attempts in four straight games, Nesmith is back into his standard role as a middle-tier scorer on a team with ample depth.

Anunoby over 1.5 threes (-188): It’s been back-to-back rough shooting performances from deep for Anunoby, but I’m buying in on what I hope will continue to be some solid volume.

After going 3-0 vs. this 3s milestone to open the series, Anunoby has hit the under twice while shooting 2-for-14 beyond the arc. Woof.

The glass-half-full approach — which I’m taking — is to appreciate that he’s taking as many 3-point attempts as he is.

With six or more attempted 3s in every game this series, the ex-Raptor is giving himself a chance to chase this bet every night.

Over his past eight playoff games, Anunoby is averaging 2.4 made 3s on 7.5 attempts.

Knicks vs. Pacers predictions made at 2:45 p.m. ET 05/31/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 31: Fade Jackson Merrill in lefty-on-lefty matchup vs. Pirates

Two of MLB’s brightest young stars, Bobby Witt Jr. and Jackson Merrill, feature in my MLB prop bets for Saturday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Merrill is a heart-of-the-order bat who hasn’t found his footing against lefty pitchers yet — and he’s facing a surging one tonight. Witt is also fade-worthy against arguably the best pitcher in the game, Tarik Skubal.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for May 31.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Merrill under 0.5 runs (-154)

Batting order position matters a lot to me for run props, and I think Merrill’s spot in the heart of the order makes him fade-worthy a lot of the time.

Merrill has batted in the No. 4 or 5 spot in 29 of 30 games this season.

He’s gone under 0.5 runs in 12 of his past 15 games, posting a .242 OBP in that span.

Merrill will also be subjected to a lefty-on-lefty matchup tonight, which is far from ideal for him.

The centerfielder has a .277 OBP in his career vs. LHPs (compared to a .355 OBP vs. RHPs).

Pirates southpaw Bailey Falter has allowed just three earned runs in five starts this month, good for a 0.92 ERA. That includes 7.0 innings of two-hit ball against the Padres on May 3.

Key stat: Merrill has gone under 0.5 runs in 17 of 30 games (56.7%).

Best MLB picks

Witt under 1.5 bases (-118): With Skubal on the mound for the Detroit Tigers today, Witt and the rest of the Royals’ lineup are in an unenviable spot.

Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, leads the majors in FIP (1.97) and currently has a career-low 0.845 WHIP.

Witt is 4-for-27 (.148) against Skubal with zero extra-base hits and six strikeouts.

Skubal has the best changeup in the game, and it runs away from right-hitting players like Witt. The pitch has a 50.0% whiff rate and a .198 SLG in 88 plate appearances.

Witt has gone under 1.5 bases in seven of his past 12 games, posting a .184/.192/.327 slash line in that span.

MLB prop picks made at 2:00 p.m. ET on 05/31/2025.

Nationals vs. Diamondbacks prop picks May 31: James Wood, Josh Naylor are both riding high

In the final matchup of the night, the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Washington Nationals at Chase Field.

The pregame narrative: Both teams enter with a 27-30 record, which is certainly a surprise on the D-backs’ side of things. The 2023 NL pennant winners are 1-8 in their past nine games and in desperate need of a turnaround.

Check out my Nationals vs. Diamondbacks prop picks for May 31, featuring James Wood and Josh Naylor.

Nationals vs. Diamondbacks prop picks

Best Bet: Naylor over 1.5 total bases (+105)

I’m not sold on Naylor keeping up his hot streak forever, but I do like his chances of putting together another solid stat line tonight.

The Mississauga, Ontario native will have a platoon advantage against right-hander (and fellow Canadian) Michael Soroka. Naylor is working on a fifth straight season with an OPS of .800 or better vs. RHPs.

Soroka, born and raised in Calgary, has had a precipitous fall from his NL Rookie of the Year runner-up season in 2019.

Since 2023 — after multiple Achilles tendon injuries and two lost seasons — Soroka has a 5.30 ERA over 137.2 innings.

One thing Soroka is doing right this year is living in the strike zone. He has a 4.6% walk rate, which ranks in the 92nd percentile, per Baseball Savant. But to me, that just means Naylor will have plenty of pitches to hit.

Let’s get back to Naylor’s side of this pick. I mentioned he’s been a menace vs. RHPs, but he’s also just on a roll overall right now.

He’s 11-5 vs. this prop in his past 16 games, averaging 1.9 bases per game in that span.

Naylor has gone over 1.5 bases in six straight games, with multiple hits in each of his past three.

As a guy who also rarely strikes out (12.2%, 92nd percentile in MLB), there’s just a lot to like here.

Key stat: Naylor is 4-for-6 vs. Soroka with a home run and a double.

Prop prediction

Wood over 0.5 runs (+100): The Nationals seem unlikely to threaten for a playoff berth this year, but the future is still bright thanks to guys like Wood.

The 22-year-old outfielder, who’s a DMV native, is having a superb sophomore season for the Nats:

5th in SLG (.579)
8th in OPS (.964)
9th in wRC+ (165)

He runs exceptionally well for someone with a 6-foot-7 frame, posting a 70th-percentile sprint speed (28.0 mph).

And he’s doing some of his best work right now.

Since May 12, Wood has cashed this bet in 12 of 16 games. He has a .322/.414/.712 slash line in that span.

Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt has allowed at least three runs in five of his past six outings. Wood has as much of a chance as anyone to cross the plate tonight.

Nationals vs. Diamondbacks predictions made at 1:56 p.m. ET on 05/31/2025.

Nationals vs. Diamondbacks prop picks May 31: James Wood, Josh Naylor are both riding high

In the final matchup of the night, the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Washington Nationals at Chase Field.

The pregame narrative: Both teams enter with a 27-30 record, which is certainly a surprise on the D-backs’ side of things. The 2023 NL pennant winners are 1-8 in their past nine games and in desperate need of a turnaround.

Check out my Nationals vs. Diamondbacks prop picks for May 31, featuring James Wood and Josh Naylor.

Nationals vs. Diamondbacks prop picks

Best Bet: Naylor over 1.5 total bases (+104)