Two of MLB’s brightest young stars, Bobby Witt Jr. and Jackson Merrill, feature in my MLB prop bets for Saturday.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Merrill is a heart-of-the-order bat who hasn’t found his footing against lefty pitchers yet — and he’s facing a surging one tonight. Witt is also fade-worthy against arguably the best pitcher in the game, Tarik Skubal.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for May 31, featuring a prediction on Trent Grisham.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Grisham over 1.5 total bases (+132)
Grisham has earned his promotion within the New York Yankees’ batting order, and now he has the best lineup protection imaginable.
On a nightly basis, the left-hitting centerfielder bats just ahead of all-world slugger Aaron Judge.
When there’s an MVP favourite in the on-deck circle, pitchers tend to give the guy at the plate something to hit. I think Dodgers right-hander Landon Knack will do that anyway for Grisham, given that he’s only allowed four walks over his past four outings.
Knack is off to a rough start through seven appearances (29.1 innings):
- 30 hits allowed
- 5.22 ERA
- .479 SLG
To make matters worse, his xERA (5.35) and xSLG (.513) are both higher than his already inflated numbers.
Grisham has been tagging right-handed pitchers this year (.667 SLG in 99 at-bats) and looks like a good fit to keep that up against Knack.
More than 75.0% of Knack’s pitches to lefties this season have been four-seam fastballs or changeups, per Baseball Savant.
Against four-seamers and changeups thrown by righties, Grisham has an exceptional .321/.429/.792 slash line in 53 at-bats.
Key stat: Grisham has 79 total bases across 38 starts this season (2.08 bases per game).
Best MLB picks
Witt under 1.5 bases (-136): With Skubal on the mound for the Detroit Tigers today, Witt and the rest of the Royals’ lineup are in an unenviable spot.
- Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, leads the majors in FIP (1.97) and currently has a career-low 0.845 WHIP.
- Witt is 4-for-27 (.148) against Skubal with zero extra-base hits and six strikeouts.
Skubal has the best changeup in the game, and it runs away from right-hitting players like Witt. The pitch has a 50.0% whiff rate and a .198 SLG in 88 plate appearances.
Witt has gone under 1.5 bases in seven of his past 12 games, posting a .184/.192/.327 slash line in that span.
Merrill under 0.5 runs (-141): Batting order position matters a lot to me for run props, and I think Merrill’s spot in the heart of the order makes him fade-worthy a lot of the time.
- Merrill has batted in the No. 4 or 5 spot in 29 of 30 games this season.
- He’s gone under 0.5 runs in 12 of his past 15 games, posting a .242 OBP in that span.
Merrill will also be subjected to a lefty-on-lefty matchup tonight, which is far from ideal for him.
The centerfielder has a .277 OBP in his career vs. LHPs (compared to a .355 OBP vs. RHPs).
Pirates southpaw Bailey Falter has allowed just three earned runs in five starts this month, good for a 0.92 ERA. That includes 7.0 innings of two-hit ball against the Padres on May 3.
MLB prop picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 05/31/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.