Two of MLB’s brightest young stars, Bobby Witt Jr. and Jackson Merrill, feature in my MLB prop bets for Saturday.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Merrill is a heart-of-the-order bat who hasn’t found his footing against lefty pitchers yet — and he’s facing a surging one tonight. Witt is also fade-worthy against arguably the best pitcher in the game, Tarik Skubal.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for May 31.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Merrill under 0.5 runs (-154)
Batting order position matters a lot to me for run props, and I think Merrill’s spot in the heart of the order makes him fade-worthy a lot of the time.
- Merrill has batted in the No. 4 or 5 spot in 29 of 30 games this season.
- He’s gone under 0.5 runs in 12 of his past 15 games, posting a .242 OBP in that span.
Merrill will also be subjected to a lefty-on-lefty matchup tonight, which is far from ideal for him.
The centerfielder has a .277 OBP in his career vs. LHPs (compared to a .355 OBP vs. RHPs).
Pirates southpaw Bailey Falter has allowed just three earned runs in five starts this month, good for a 0.92 ERA. That includes 7.0 innings of two-hit ball against the Padres on May 3.
Key stat: Merrill has gone under 0.5 runs in 17 of 30 games (56.7%).
Best MLB picks
Witt under 1.5 bases (-118): With Skubal on the mound for the Detroit Tigers today, Witt and the rest of the Royals’ lineup are in an unenviable spot.
- Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, leads the majors in FIP (1.97) and currently has a career-low 0.845 WHIP.
- Witt is 4-for-27 (.148) against Skubal with zero extra-base hits and six strikeouts.
Skubal has the best changeup in the game, and it runs away from right-hitting players like Witt. The pitch has a 50.0% whiff rate and a .198 SLG in 88 plate appearances.
Witt has gone under 1.5 bases in seven of his past 12 games, posting a .184/.192/.327 slash line in that span.
MLB prop picks made at 2:00 p.m. ET on 05/31/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.