Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Trout is still hammering the ball, but he hasn’t been rewarded as much as expected so far in 2025. He’ll face a struggling pitcher this afternoon and should be able to do damage.
Check out my best MLB prop bets for June 8, which include predictions on Heliot Ramos and Nolan Arenado.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Ramos over 0.5 runs (+125)
Ramos isn’t a household name, but he’s working toward that status with his production at the plate.
The 25-year-old was an all-star last season and is well on his way to that status again. He’s posted a .295/.361/.488 slash line for the Giants in 63 games.
After starting the year as primarily a heart-of-the-order hitter, Ramos has worked his way up the lineup. He’s batted in the first or second spot in 15 consecutive games.
Ramos hasn’t put up elite batted-ball numbers, but he’s solid across the board.
According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 73rd percentile or better in average exit velocity, barrel rate and expected slugging percentage.
Typically, with Spencer Strider on the other side, it might be difficult to bet on a runs prop like this. But Strider really hasn’t been himself.
His expected ERA (6.41) is among the worst in the majors, and his fastball velocity (95.2 mph) is down three miles an hour from where it was a few seasons ago. That’s what elbow surgery can do to a player.
Strider isn’t as imposing as usual, and Ramos is a rising star for the Giants. I think there’s some value here.
Key stat: Ramos has scored in 15 of his past 25 games, posting a 1.011 OPS in that span.
Arenado over 0.5 RBI (+170): Arenado came in clutch for the Cardinals yesterday, delivering a walk-off RBI single in the ninth against the Dodgers.
It hasn’t been a stellar season for him, but the third baseman continues racking up opportunities to make an impact.
Arenado ranks eighth in the majors in plate appearances with runners in scoring position (81). He averages 1.7 PAs with runners on second and/or third per game.
Today, Arenado faces a longtime (and familiar) foe in Clayton Kershaw. The veteran third baseman is 22-for-74 (.297) with a .554 SLG in this head-to-head matchup.
Arenado has cashed this bet in 12 of his past 20 games. If he has another RISP opportunity, I like his chances.
Trout over 1.5 total bases (-115): This isn’t a great price when you look at how Trout has fared. But his batted-ball quality remains elite, and this is a matchup he should be able to take advantage of.
Trout and the Angels will face Seattle’s George Kirby, who is still trying to find his way. Three starts into his 2025 season, Kirby has allowed 13 runs on 21 hits in just 13.2 innings (8.56 ERA).
In the past, Trout has batted 3-for-6 with a home run and two walks against Kirby.
Also, Trout has a .602 xSLG, per Baseball Savant, which far out-paces his actual SLG (.470). He has the ninth-highest slugging discrepancy in the majors.
MLB prop picks made at 9:42 a.m. ET on 06/08/2025.
The NL-leading New York Mets visit the MLB-worst Colorado Rockies on Saturday night for a matchup at Coors Field.
The pregame narrative: For the second time in less than a week, Clay Holmes takes the mound against Carson Palmquist. Holmes’ Mets won the June 1 game, 5-3, in New York.
Check out my Mets vs. Rockies predictions, including props on Holmes and Pete Alonso in a +270 SGP.
Mets vs. Rockies predictions
Parlay: Mets ML | Holmes under 5.5 Ks | Alonso over 1.5 bases (+270)
Mets moneyline (-295): New York is light years ahead of Colorado in the standings right now. But let’s put that into perspective a little bit.
The Mets (40-24) are the first NL team to reach 40 wins. The Rockies (12-51) are on pace for just 30 wins.
Colorado did sweep the Miami Marlins this week, snapping a 22-series losing streak (MLB record). But that doesn’t wipe away how dreadful the Rockies have been all season long.
The Mets went 3-0 vs. the Rockies from May 30 through June 1, winning all three games by multiple runs.
Palmquist is 0-4 through four outings, posting an 8.50 ERA and a .965 opponent OPS so far. Not an ideal start to his MLB career.
Holmes under 5.5 strikeouts (-143): I think Holmes gives the Mets a good chance to win on Saturday, but I don’t think he’ll have to mow down the Rockies’ lineup to do it.
Holmes had just three Ks over 7.0 innings when he faced Colorado last weekend. Facing the same lineup twice in a week likely won’t help him fool the hitters.
Familiarity aside, this just isn’t a number Holmes typically exceeds. He’s averaging 4.9 Ks per start this year and has gone under this total in seven straight.
The Rockies have the highest K% in the majors, but Holmes isn’t a big strikeout guy. According to Baseball Savant, he has below-average percentile rankings in chase rate, whiff rate and K rate.
Alonso over 1.5 total bases (-143): I’m never eager to place a straight wager on a total bases prop at minus odds, but Alonso’s inclusion in this SGP makes sense.
Check out what the Mets slugger has accomplished in his past 13 games:
.340 BA
1.201 OPS
2+ bases in 10 of 13
Alonso is slugging .580 this year, which ranks fifth in MLB. But his xSLG (.649) suggests he could be doing a whole lot more.
In the thin air of Coors Field’s mile-high atmosphere, Alonso should be able to make the ball fly. He doubled in the series opener last night, and he homered off Palmquist last weekend.
Mets vs. Rockies predictions made at 10:05 a.m. ET on 06/07/2025.
A pair of leadoff hitters has my attention for Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Jackson Holliday has really turned things around and is leading a suddenly resurgent Baltimore Orioles squad. J.P. Crawford, meanwhile, is getting on base at an impressive clip and should see the run production follow.
Check out my best MLB prop bets for June 7, featuring a prediction on Jasson Dominguez.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Holliday over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Holliday moved up the the Orioles’ leadoff spot on an indefinite basis last month, and his numbers since then back up the move:
.275 BA
.835 OPS
2+ bases in 9 of 18 games
He’s still not batting quite like a typical leadoff hitter, though, with a 5.3% walk rate (19th percentile, per Baseball Savant). In fact, he’s only walked twice in 84 plate appearances since the lineup change.
My initial thought was to bet on Holliday to score a run, but the -112 price wasn’t as enticing when you consider his lack of walks.
It’s also worth noting that Athletics starter Luis Severino ranks in the 71st percentile for walk rate (6.9%) and the 14th percentile for strikeout rate (16.5%), so there’s a good chance Holliday will get something to hit.
The venue, Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, also helps. According to Baseball Savant, it’s the most offence-friendly park in the majors this season.
You don’t have to tell that to Severino, whose home/road splits are a real Jekyll-and-Hyde situation:
Home (8 starts): 6.99 ERA, .787 opponent OPS
Road (5 starts): 0.87 ERA, .461 opponent OPS
Key stat: The left-hitting Holliday has a .474 SLG and a 129 wRC+ vs. righties this year. By comparison, he has a .349 SLG and 88 wRC+ vs. lefties.
Best MLB picks
Crawford over 0.5 runs (-118): Crawford is cruising right now, batting 13-for-27 (.481) in his past seven games with four walks.
He’s only scored in three of those matchups, but I’ll gladly buy in on the opportunities he’s creating from Seattle’s leadoff spot.
Even if Crawford’s bat cools a bit, he’s got an elite eye at the plate and should find another way on base. His 15.1% walk rate ranks in the 96th percentile in the majors.
Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz has issued 18 walks over his past five starts. And left-hitting players (like Crawford) have a .313/.392/.521 slash line against him this year.
Dominguez under 0.5 hits (+105): Garrett Crochet is on the mound for the Red Sox tonight, which had me looking for someone to fade on the Yankees’ side. I think Dominguez fits the bill.
The switch-hitting outfielder is weaker from his right side, batting .143 with a 29.3% K rate vs. lefties in 49 career games.
Dominguez has never faced Crochet, whose 1.98 ERA and AL-high 101 strikeouts have him firmly in Cy Young conversations.
I expect Crochet to be able to keep the swing-happy 22-year-old guess. Four of Crochet’s five pitches are above-average in whiff rate, and Dominguez whiffs on 30.8% of his swings (13th percentile).
MLB prop picks made at 12:32 p.m. ET on 06/07/2025.
Well, the Indiana Pacers did it again. Thanks to yet another frenzied comeback in a postseason full of them, the underdogs have a 1-0 series lead in the NBA Finals.
The pregame narrative: The Oklahoma City Thunder were severely out-rebounded in Game 1, and they also failed to slow down the Pacers from 3-point range. Still, the Thunder are 11-point favourites on Sunday night to even the series.
I’m targeting Isaiah Hartenstein, Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin in my Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks on June 8.
My colleague Spencer backed Hartenstein to grab eight-plus rebounds in the series opener, and that prop cashed at +112, despite Hartenstein playing just 17 minutes and coming off the bench for the first time in the postseason.
There’s a pretty notable split in terms of Hartenstein’s usage, and it doesn’t paint a rosy picture:
First 9 playoff games: 26.9 minutes, 9.2 rebounds
Past 8 playoff games: 19.8 minutes, 6.5 rebounds
Why, then, am I bullish on Hartenstein’s rebound production in Game 2?
Because OKC went -17 in the rebounding count in Game 1. That can’t happen again, and Hartenstein is the top candidate to do something about it.
Frontcourt size was supposed to be a strength for OKC this series. They employ two 7-footers (Hartenstein, Chet Holmgren) to Indiana’s zero. But it seems the speed of the Pacers coaxed the Thunder to stray from that strategy.
Hartenstein led the Thunder with nine rebounds despite playing just 17 minutes. Three players on the Pacers had nine or more boards.
During the regular season, Hartenstein cashed this bet in 48 of 57 games (84.2%). I know he’s seen reduced minutes since then, but he’s still capable of hitting the over in a reduced role.
OKC cannot afford to get waxed on the glass again in Game 2. I expect Hartenstein to be a central figure in the Thunder’s adjustments.
Key stat: Hartenstein is 11-6 vs. this line in the postseason, and he has five-plus rebounds in every game.
Game 2 prop prediction
Siakam over 26.5 points/rebounds (-110): This pick has some Hartenstein insurance baked into it. If Hartenstein takes a backseat again, Siakam should have more rebounding opportunities.
Then again, the Eastern Conference Finals MVP is capable of clearing this line on points alone. So I’m not fixated on his rebounding upside.
Coming off a 19-point, 10-rebound performance, Siakam is now 6-3 vs. this line in his past nine games. He has three games of 30-plus points in that span.
For the postseason as a whole, Siakam is averaging 26.9 PR, consistently putting himself in a strong spot to hit this over.
Toppin over 1.5 threes (+135): One key for Indiana entering this Finals matchup was to shoot more 3s.
They nailed it in Game 1, attempting 39 shots from beyond the arc. That accounted for 47.6% of their total field-goal attempts, which was Indiana’s highest rate of the postseason.
Toppin was crucial to the perimeter success, posting team-highs in makes (five) and attempts (eight).
He hadn’t attempted more than four 3s in any of the first 16 playoff games during this run, so I can’t expect that type of volume again.
But I do think four attempts should be his floor if Indiana is committed to staying active from deep.
With that in mind, a +135 price on Toppin canning a couple of 3s has some value in my eyes.
Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks made at 12:07 p.m. ET 06/07/2025.
A pair of leadoff hitters has my attention for Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Jackson Holliday has really turned things around and is leading a suddenly resurgent Baltimore Orioles squad. J.P. Crawford, meanwhile, is getting on base at an impressive clip and should see the run production follow.
Check out my best MLB prop bets for June 7, featuring a prediction on Jasson Dominguez.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Holliday over 1.5 total bases (-108)
Holliday moved up the the Orioles’ leadoff spot on an indefinite basis last month, and his numbers since then back up the move:
.275 BA
.835 OPS
2+ bases in 9 of 18 games
He’s still not batting quite like a typical leadoff hitter, though, with a 5.3% walk rate (19th percentile, per Baseball Savant). In fact, he’s only walked twice in 84 plate appearances since the lineup change.
My initial thought was to bet on Holliday to score a run, but the -139 price wasn’t particularly enticing when you consider his lack of walks.
It’s also worth noting that Athletics starter Luis Severino ranks in the 71st percentile for walk rate (6.9%) and the 14th percentile for strikeout rate (16.5%), so there’s a good chance Holliday will get something to hit.
The venue, Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, also helps. According to Baseball Savant, it’s the most offence-friendly park in the majors this season.
You don’t have to tell that to Severino, whose home/road splits are a real Jekyll-and-Hyde situation:
Home (8 starts): 6.99 ERA, .787 opponent OPS
Road (5 starts): 0.87 ERA, .461 opponent OPS
Key stat: The left-hitting Holliday has a .474 SLG and a 129 wRC+ vs. righties this year. By comparison, he has a .349 SLG and 88 wRC+ vs. lefties.
Crawford over 0.5 runs (-129): Crawford is cruising right now, batting 13-for-27 (.481) in his past seven games with four walks.
He’s only scored in three of those matchups, but I’ll gladly buy in on the opportunities he’s creating from Seattle’s leadoff spot.
Even if Crawford’s bat cools a bit, he’s got an elite eye at the plate and should find another way on base. His 15.1% walk rate ranks in the 96th percentile in the majors.
Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz has issued 18 walks over his past five starts. And left-hitting players (like Crawford) have a .313/.392/.521 slash line against him this year.
Dominguez under 0.5 hits (+112): Garrett Crochet is on the mound for the Red Sox tonight, which had me looking for someone to fade on the Yankees’ side. I think Dominguez fits the bill.
The switch-hitting outfielder is weaker from his right side, batting .143 with a 29.3% K rate vs. lefties in 49 career games.
Dominguez has never faced Crochet, whose 1.98 ERA and AL-high 101 strikeouts have him firmly in Cy Young conversations.
I expect Crochet to be able to keep the swing-happy 22-year-old guess. Four of Crochet’s five pitches are above-average in whiff rate, and Dominguez whiffs on 30.8% of his swings (13th percentile).
MLB prop picks made at 11:42 a.m. ET on 06/07/2025.
Well, the Indiana Pacers did it again. Thanks to yet another frenzied comeback in a postseason full of them, the underdogs have a 1-0 series lead in the NBA Finals.
The pregame narrative: The Oklahoma City Thunder were severely out-rebounded in Game 1, and they also failed to slow down the Pacers from 3-point range. Still, the Thunder are 11-point favourites on Sunday night to even the series.
My colleague Spencer backed Hartenstein to grab eight-plus rebounds in the series opener, and that prop cashed at +112, despite Hartenstein playing just 17 minutes and coming off the bench for the first time in the postseason.
There’s a pretty notable split in terms of Hartenstein’s usage, and it doesn’t paint a rosy picture:
First 9 playoff games: 26.9 minutes, 9.2 rebounds
Past 8 playoff games: 19.8 minutes, 6.5 rebounds
Why, then, am I bullish on Hartenstein’s rebound production in Game 2?
Because OKC went -17 in the rebounding count in Game 1. That can’t happen again, and Hartenstein is the top candidate to do something about it.
Frontcourt size was supposed to be a strength for OKC this series. They employ two 7-footers (Hartenstein, Chet Holmgren) to Indiana’s zero. But it seems the speed of the Pacers coaxed the Thunder to stray from that strategy.
Hartenstein led the Thunder with nine rebounds despite playing just 17 minutes. Three players on the Pacers had nine or more boards.
During the regular season, Hartenstein cashed this bet in 48 of 57 games (84.2%). I know he’s seen reduced minutes since then, but he’s still capable of hitting the over in a reduced role.
OKC cannot afford to get waxed on the glass again in Game 2. I expect Hartenstein to be a central figure in the Thunder’s adjustments.
Key stat: Hartenstein is 11-6 vs. this line in the postseason, and he has five-plus rebounds in every game.
Siakam over 25.5 points/rebounds (-121): This pick has some Hartenstein insurance baked into it. If Hartenstein takes a backseat again, Siakam should have more rebounding opportunities.
Then again, the Eastern Conference Finals MVP is capable of clearing this line on points alone. So I’m not fixated on his rebounding upside.
Coming off a 19-point, 10-rebound performance, Siakam is now 6-3 vs. this line in his past nine games. He has three games of 30-plus points in that span.
For the postseason as a whole, Siakam is averaging 26.9 PR, consistently putting himself in a strong spot to hit this over.
Toppin over 1.5 threes (+150): As I mentioned in my NBA Finals series preview, one key for Indiana in this matchup was to shoot more 3s.
They nailed it in Game 1, attempting 39 shots from beyond the arc. That accounted for 47.6% of their total field-goal attempts, which was Indiana’s highest rate of the postseason.
Toppin was crucial to the perimeter success, posting team-highs in makes (five) and attempts (eight).
He hadn’t attempted more than four 3s in any of the first 16 playoff games during this run, so I can’t expect that type of volume again.
But I do think four attempts should be his floor if Indiana is committed to staying active from deep.
With that in mind, a +150 price on Toppin canning a couple of 3s has some value in my eyes.
Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks made at 10:07 a.m. ET 06/07/2025.
After a terrific homestand, the Toronto Blue Jays are in Minnesota on Friday night to face the Twins.
The pregame narrative: Toronto went 6-1 in its past two series at Rogers Centre and will now face a Minnesota squad that just wrapped up a 10-game road trip. Bailey Ober has been in a nice groove for the Twins, who are favourites in Friday’s game.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Twins for June 6, with a fade of Ober and a plus-money pick on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The Blue Jays are dialled at the plate right now. After they thrashed the Phillies, 9-1, on Thursday, Philadelphia starter Jesus Luzardo wondered aloud whether he was tipping pitches.
Look at the seven-game homestand Toronto just put together on the offensive side of things:
7.6 runs/game
.328 BA
.972 OPS
10.9 K%
9.8 BB%
With numbers like that, the Jays are a threat to chase any starting pitcher out of a game early. But even if that doesn’t happen, their strikeout rate is low enough that I don’t trust Ober to clear tonight’s line regardless.
Ober has gone under 4.5 Ks in four straight starts.
He did dice the Blue Jays last year, tallying 18 Ks over two starts, but his stuff hasn’t been nearly as baffling for hitters in 2025. His K% is down 8.3 percentage points (to 18.6%) and his whiff rate is down 3.9 percentage points (to 25.1%).
Ober is still garnering an elite chase rate — 94th percentile, per Baseball Savant — but I don’t see that as being much of a problem.
Toronto has the highest chase contact rate in the majors (62.4%, where the league average is 55.1%).
Key stat: Toronto has the lowest K rate in the majors this season (18.2%).
Quick pick
Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+125): Expected data only gets you so far, but there’s enough of a chasm between that and Guerrero’s actual results that I feel compelled to buy in.
Over his past 15 games, Guerrero is only 5-10 vs. this prop. But that number really should be a lot better.
In that span, Guerrero’s slash line is .224/.328/.362. But his expected slash line is .367/.453/.659.
He has a 96.1 mph average exit velocity in those 15 games, as well as a 61.5% hard-hit rate. Only Shohei Ohtani has a higher hard-hit rate than that over the full season.
Guerrero is adept at drawing walks, which is always a risk. But Ober’s 88th-percentile walk rate (5.2%) lessens that concern.
If you expect Guerrero’s misfortune to turn around at some point, this is a fair price to buy the perceived dip.
Blue Jays picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET on 06/06/2025.
After a terrific homestand, the Toronto Blue Jays are in Minnesota on Friday night to face the Twins.
The pregame narrative: Toronto went 6-1 in its past two series at Rogers Centre and will now face a Minnesota squad that just wrapped up a 10-game road trip. Bailey Ober has been in a nice groove for the Twins, who are favourites in Friday’s game.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Twins for June 6, with a fade of Ober and a plus-money pick on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Blue Jays picks vs. Twins
Best Bet: Ober under 4.5 Ks (-136)
The Blue Jays are dialled at the plate right now. After they thrashed the Phillies, 9-1, on Thursday, Philadelphia starter Jesus Luzardo wondered aloud whether he was tipping pitches.
Look at the seven-game homestand Toronto just put together on the offensive side of things:
7.6 runs/game
.328 BA
.972 OPS
10.9 K%
9.8 BB%
With numbers like that, the Jays are a threat to chase any starting pitcher out of a game early. But even if that doesn’t happen, their strikeout rate is low enough that I don’t trust Ober to clear tonight’s line regardless.
Ober has gone under 4.5 Ks in four straight starts.
He did dice the Blue Jays last year, tallying 18 Ks over two starts, but his stuff hasn’t been nearly as baffling for hitters in 2025. His K% is down 8.3 percentage points (to 18.6%) and his whiff rate is down 3.9 percentage points (to 25.1%).
Ober is still garnering an elite chase rate — 94th percentile, per Baseball Savant — but I don’t see that as being much of a problem.
Toronto has the highest chase contact rate in the majors (62.4%, where the league average is 55.1%).
Key stat: Toronto has the lowest K rate in the majors this season (18.2%).
Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+125): Expected data only gets you so far, but there’s enough of a chasm between that and Guerrero’s actual results that I feel compelled to buy in.
Over his past 15 games, Guerrero is only 5-10 vs. this prop. But that number really should be a lot better.
In that span, Guerrero’s slash line is .224/.328/.362. But his expected slash line is .367/.453/.659.
He has a 96.1 mph average exit velocity in those 15 games, as well as a 61.5% hard-hit rate. Only Shohei Ohtani has a higher hard-hit rate than that over the full season.
Guerrero is adept at drawing walks, which is always a risk. But Ober’s 88th-percentile walk rate (5.2%) lessens that concern.
If you expect Guerrero’s misfortune to turn around at some point, this is a fair price to buy the perceived dip.
Blue Jays picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 06/06/2025.
Coming off a crushing defeat that added to an extended rough patch, the Atlanta Braves are back at it Friday night in a road matchup against the San Francisco Giants.
The pregame narrative: Atlanta coughed up seven runs in the ninth inning on Thursday in a one-run loss against the Diamondbacks, sinking the Braves to 2-8 in their past 10. Tonight’s showdown in the Bay Area features two very talented starters, Spencer Schwellenbach (3.13 ERA) and Hayden Birdsong (2.37).
Check out my Braves vs. Giants predictions, including props on Birdsong and Ronald Acuna Jr. in a +275 SGP.
Braves vs. Giants predictions
Parlay: Under 8.5 runs | Acuna over 0.5 hits | Birdsong over 4.5 Ks (+275)
Under 8.5 runs (-165): Pitching depth in the rotation and bullpen has carried the Giants through a rather brutal offensive stretch lately.
San Francisco is 9-9 in its past 18 games despite scoring just 2.3 runs per game. How? Because the team has allowed just 2.4 runs/game in that span.
This under is 16-2 in the Giants’ past 18 games.
Check out where the Giants’ offence ranks over that time:
27th in wRC+ (74)
30th in ISO (.101)
29th in BA (.209)
30th in SLG (.310)
Schwellenbach is having a great year, which includes a 91st-percentile chase rate, per Baseball Savant. He should feast against a desperate lineup.
On the flip side, Birdsong’s past three outings for the Giants have featured an average of just 5.0 runs. He’s capable of holding up his end of the bargain in a pitchers’ duel.
Acuna over 0.5 hits (-305): Acuna hasn’t stolen any bases yet, but he otherwise looks like his old self for a Braves team that can certainly use the pop.
The 2023 NL MVP, who has suffered multiple ACL tears, made his season debut on May 23 and homered on the first pitch he saw. He hasn’t slowed down since.
15-for-45 (.333 BA)
1.056 OPS
1+ hits in 10 of 12 games
Acuna hasn’t faced Birdsong yet, but I’ll put the right fielder up against any arm in this market.
So far, 23 of his 29 balls in play have been hard-hit (i.e., 95 mph exit velocity or greater). That’s an absurd clip.
Birdsong over 4.5 Ks (-137): Birdsong had his ups and downs as a starter last year, but the strikeout stuff was never in question.
As a rookie, the right-hander posted an 11.0 K/9 over 16 starts. He averaged 5.5 Ks per outing.
But given that he also had a 4.75 ERA, the Giants slid him into the bullpen to start this season. Now he’s back in the rotation and has cashed this bet in back-to-back starts.
Atlanta has MLB’s eighth-highest K rate over the past two weeks (25.3%), and this line isn’t asking for too much.
Birdsong is 13-6 vs. this Ks prop in 19 career starts. He had five Ks over 5.0 innings vs. the Braves last year.
Braves vs. Giants predictions made at 10:05 a.m. ET on 06/06/2025.
With the NBA Finals set to begin this week, let’s take a closer look at the unexpected matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers.
The latest: OKC, coming off its second season atop the Western Conference, was believed to be a championship-calibre squad all season long. Indiana, however, is a stunning Finals entrant as the No. 4 seed in the East. Both teams are deep and accustomed to playing at a frenetic pace.
Check out our Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals betting preview and odds for the series.
Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals preview
OKC is a massive favourite to win, and it’s easy to see why.
After an NBA-high 68 wins in the regular season, the Thunder have remained dominant in the playoffs and posted a +11.2 net rating (for context, in the regular season, they were the only team with a net rating above 10.0).
Despite the presence of a clear favourite and underdog, this NBA Finals matchup isn’t a clash of styles.
Depth is an asset on both sides, as OKC and Indiana are accustomed to playing eight or nine players on a nightly basis.
They both rank in the top three in fast-break points and pace this postseason.
The Thunder were expected to be here. The Pacers were not. But both have earned their spots by taking care of the basketball, rolling deep lineups and wearing down their opponents with fast-paced play.
As -667 favourites, the Thunder’s implied probability to win this series is 87.0%.
That’s far from the norm in a championship series, but it speaks to how well the Thunder have performed all season long.
Indiana is no stranger to the underdog role, mind you. The Pacers weren’t expected to knock out the Knicks or the top-seeded Cavaliers.
Of its 12 postseason wins so far, Indiana was the underdog for seven of them.
Unless you’re eyeing the Pacers to pull off a hefty upset, it makes more sense to scope out some other series markets:
Market
Betting odds
Thunder -2.5
-125
Pacers +2.5
-112
Thunder -1.5
-313
Pacers +1.5
+210
Over 4.5 games
-455
Under 4.5 games
+290
Over 6.5 games
+320
Under 6.5 games
-500
NBA odds as of 3:30 p.m. ET on 06/02/2025.
OKC’s case to win
Youth doesn’t always mean inexperience, and OKC is proof of that.
After claiming the No. 1 seed in a loaded Western Conference last season, the Thunder entered 2024-25 as the youngest team in the NBA (24.15 years old).
Entering the Finals, OKC’s average age is 25.33 years, per NBA.com, making it the fourth-youngest team ever to reach this stage.
The Thunder play with a youthful energy, especially on defence. They’re leading the postseason in turnovers forced (18.0/game), defensive rating (104.7) and percentage of points off turnovers (20.3%).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, fresh off an MVP coronation, gives OKC the best individual performer in this matchup. With two rotational 7-footers, the Thunder also have more size than the Pacers. And let’s not forget how menacing Alex Caruso and Lu Dort are as wing defenders.
During the regular season, the Thunder went 2-0 vs. the Pacers. OKC won their most recent matchup, 132-111, at home on March 29.
Indiana’s case to win
If the Pacers are going to pull this off — and it’s a sizeable if — I think they have to do two things really, really well.
1. Keep turnovers to a minimum. As mentioned, OKC is as good as it gets in terms of forcing turnovers and capitalizing on them. But the Pacers have done well to limit their gaffes in that regard, posting the third-lowest turnover rate in the postseason (12.7%). Indiana can’t afford to cough up many easy buckets in this series, especially in the non-SGA minutes.
2. Over-index on 3-point shooting. Only 39.1% of the Pacers’ field goal attempts have come from beyond the arc, which ranks 11th of 16 playoff teams. But Indiana has been No. 1 in the postseason in 3PT% (40.1). OKC is 13th in 3PT% (33.6), so this is a rare area where the Pacers have a distinct advantage.
Protect the ball and take more shots from deep. That’s the basic formula that gives the Pacers their best shot.
Gilgeous-Alexander has -5,000 odds to lead the Finals in scoring, which is one way to illustrate his importance in this matchup.
The regular season scoring champ already has 10 playoff games with 30-plus points and five-plus assists. Since 1963, only LeBron James and Michael Jordan have ever had more in a single postseason.
During the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander scored 45 and 33 points, respectively, in his two matchups vs. Indiana. He also had seven rebounds and eight assists in both games.
Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) Position: Point guard ’25 playoff stats:18.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 9.8 assists, nine double-doubles
Haliburton’s single-greatest moment of the 2025 postseason was his game-tying buzzer-beater against the Knicks in Game 1 of the ECF. Can he top that in the Finals?
People often use the term “clutch” anecdotally, but there are ways to quantify it, too. In the NBA, clutch time refers to the final five minutes of regulation or overtime when the score is within five points.
Haliburton has an NBA-high 8.0 assist-to-turnover ratio in clutch time this postseason. But he’s been a cold-blooded shooter in the biggest moments all year long, too.
Here’s another way to define Hali’s clutch gene, according to Tom Haberstroh on Substack: Haliburton is 12-for-14 this season on shots to tie or take the lead in the final two minutes. Sheesh.
Betting trends
OKC Thunder – 60-35-4 ATS (1st in the NBA) – 58-34-4 ATS in home games (2nd) – 43-7 SU in home games (1st) – Overs are 29-20-1 in home games (7th) – 2-0 ATS vs. Indiana this year
Indiana Pacers – 47-48-3 ATS (17th) – 23-17-1 ATS as underdogs (5th) – 22-19 SU as underdogs (2nd) – Overs are 26-21-1 in road games (12th) – Overs are 25-14-2 as underdogs (4th)
NBA Finals prediction
My pick: Thunder -2.5 games (-125)
The star power, the size and even the depth. It’s all on OKC’s side.
No disrespect to the Pacers, but they fall short of the Thunder in all sorts of key areas. Indiana also has three wins this postseason in which it trailed by seven-plus points in the final minute. I don’t see anything like that happening against OKC.
The Thunder cashed this bet in the first round against Memphis and in the WCF against Minnesota. Having home-court advantage puts OKC in a great spot to win in four or five.
Some SPECIAL playoff home cooking in OKC 🚨
⛈️ 8-1 record ⛈️ +24.6 average margin (+221 total) ⛈️ Four 30+ point wins ⛈️ Five 25+ point wins pic.twitter.com/UU5Xaoq7Gt
