Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals prop picks Game 3: Fade Jalen Williams, Tyrese Haliburton in Indiana

Knotted at one game apiece, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers resume their NBA Finals matchup on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: OKC is a road favourite in Game 3 after a convincing home victory last time out. The Pacers have deployed a remarkably balanced offence, with zero 20-point scorers through two games.

I’m targeting Jalen Williams and Tyrese Haliburton in my Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks on June 11.

Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks

Best bet: Williams under 26.5 points/rebounds (-108)

Williams soared to new heights in his third NBA season, setting career-highs in points (21.6/game) and rebounds (5.3/game) while earning third-team All-NBA honours.

But he wasn’t routinely clearing this points/rebounds line then, and he’s certainly not doing so now.

Williams is the No. 2 scoring option for the Thunder, but it’s been a pretty streaky postseason. He’s gone under 20 points in 10 of his past 14 games.

Though Williams is listed as the Thunder’s starting power forward, he isn’t a typical big man. He’s 6-foot-5 and spends plenty of time roaming the perimeter, too.

OKC has two 7-footers — Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein — who are currently playing in a staggered way that ensures a traditional big is always on the floor.

In my view, that lowers Williams’ ceiling as a rebounder.

Williams is shooting just 37.7% vs. the Pacers in four matchups this year, averaging 18.5 points and 3.8 rebounds (22.3 PR). He’s hit this under in all four games.

I know he’s likely to be heavily involved, but he hasn’t shown enough against the Pacers (or in the playoffs as a whole) to warrant this high of a line.

Key stat: Williams has averaged 25.8 PR in this postseason and 25.6 PR in 28 career playoff games.

Game 3 prop prediction

Haliburton under 8.5 assists (-150): This line would typically seem a bit low for Haliburton, but the Thunder have had the clamps on him so far this series.

The 2023-24 assist champ, who averaged 9.2 APG during the regular season, had just six assists apiece in Games 1 and 2.

In four games against the Thunder overall this season, he has 23 total assists and has gone under this mark all four times.

OKC allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game during the regular season (24.6). They’ve allowed even fewer APG during the playoffs (21.8).

Haliburton has gone under an 8.5-assist line in eight of his past 12 games.

Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks made at 12:47 p.m. ET 06/10/2025.

Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals prop picks Game 3: Fade Jalen Williams, Tyrese Haliburton in Indiana

Knotted at one game apiece, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers resume their NBA Finals matchup on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: OKC is a road favourite in Game 3 after a convincing home victory last time out. The Pacers have deployed a remarkably balanced offence, with zero 20-point scorers through two games.

I’m targeting Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso and Tyrese Haliburton in my Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks on June 11.

Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks

Best bet: Williams under 27.5 points/rebounds (-122)

Williams soared to new heights in his third NBA season, setting career-highs in points (21.6/game) and rebounds (5.3/game) while earning third-team All-NBA honours.

But he wasn’t routinely clearing this points/rebounds line then, and he’s certainly not doing so now.

Williams is the No. 2 scoring option for the Thunder, but it’s been a pretty streaky postseason. He’s gone under 20 points in 10 of his past 14 games.

Though Williams is listed as the Thunder’s starting power forward, he isn’t a typical big man. He’s 6-foot-5 and spends plenty of time roaming the perimeter, too.

OKC has two 7-footers — Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein — who are currently playing in a staggered way that ensures a traditional big is always on the floor.

In my view, that lowers Williams’ ceiling as a rebounder.

Williams is shooting just 37.7% vs. the Pacers in four matchups this year, averaging 18.5 points and 3.8 rebounds (22.3 PR). He’s hit this under in all four games.

I know he’s likely to be heavily involved, but he hasn’t shown enough against the Pacers (or in the playoffs as a whole) to warrant this high of a line.

Key stat: Williams has gone under 27.5 PR in 12 of 18 playoff games this season — and in 19 of 28 for his career.

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Game 3 prop prediction

Caruso over 8.5 points (-121): A relatively quiet night from Williams would help this Caruso bet cash, so I’m hoping for some harmony here with these picks.

Caruso isn’t in the starting lineup, and he’s known more for his defence. But I’ve noticed a steady offensive floor from him in recent games.

Here are his numbers over the past 12 matchups:

10.1 PPG
24.7 minutes/game
5+ shots in 11 of 12
3+ attempted 3s in every game

Caruso has cashed this bet in 12 of 18 games this postseason, including both so far in the Finals.

He matched a playoff-high with 20 points in Game 2, and we don’t even need half of that in Game 3 to hit the over.

Haliburton under 8.5 assists (-143): This line would typically seem a bit low for Haliburton, but the Thunder have had the clamps on him so far this series.

The 2023-24 assist champ, who averaged 9.2 APG during the regular season, had just six assists apiece in Games 1 and 2.

In four games against the Thunder overall this season, he has 23 total assists and has gone under this mark all four times.

OKC allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game during the regular season (24.6). They’ve allowed even fewer APG during the playoffs (21.8).

Haliburton has gone under an 8.5-assist line in eight of his past 12 games.

Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks made at 11:47 a.m. ET 06/10/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Cardinals prop picks June 10: Winn, Springer should drive offence

After last night’s extra-innings win, the Toronto Blue Jays are back at it on Tuesday against the St. Louis Cardinals.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is a slight moneyline favourite tonight after winning 10 of its previous 12 games. Chris Bassitt gave up nine runs on 10 hits when he last pitched in St. Louis, but that was back in April 2023.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Cardinals for June 10, with predictions on Masyn Winn and George Springer.

Blue Jays picks vs. Cardinals

Best Bet: Winn over 0.5 runs (+130)

My reasons for backing Winn to score a run are threefold:

He’s scoring at a solid clip right now. Winn’s on-base numbers aren’t out of this world, but he gets on enough to let a solid Cardinals lineup bring him around.

Over his past 26 games, he’s 14-12 vs. this prop with 20 total runs. On the season, Winn’s .343 on-base percentage ranks 59th out of 168 qualified hitters.

Bassitt has struggled on the road. Through six road starts, Bassitt has a 4.86 ERA and a .446 opponent SLG.

He has allowed four-plus runs in four consecutive outings as a visitor.

The Cardinals have hit Bassitt well. It’s a small sample, but it’s true. St. Louis’ lineup is 12-for-27 (.444) with four home runs and a double against Bassitt.

Winn started the year as the Cardinals’ No. 9 hitter to help roll the lineup over, but he shifted to the No. 2 spot in late April. He’s in a prime position to score, and I think the situation tonight makes this a value play.

Key stat: From April 1 onward, Winn has cashed this bet in 28 of 50 starts (56.0%).

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Quick pick

Springer over 1.5 total bases (+107): Springer had a bit of a cold spell from late April through late May, but he’s since come out of it.

Check out what he’s done from May 27 onward:

2+ bases in 8 of 13 games
.705 SLG
5 home runs
4 doubles

Springer’s contact quality has been elite this season. He ranks in the 95th percentile in xSLG (.566) and the 98th percentile in barrel rate (19.3%), per Baseball Savant.

Also, Springer is 5-for-9 with a home run against Miles Mikolas.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:18 a.m. ET on 06/10/2025.

Dodgers vs. Padres SGP predictions June 9: Back San Diego to cover, Cronenworth to deliver a hit

One of the best modern-day baseball rivalries is renewed on Monday night, as the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres begin their season series at Petco Park.

The pregame narrative: These divisional foes have met three times in the postseason since 2020, and they could be on a collision course again this season. L.A. is one game ahead of San Diego in the NL West, but those fortunes could shift over the next few days.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Padres predictions, including props on Jake Cronenworth and Freddie Freeman in a +295 SGP.

Dodgers vs. Padres predictions

Parlay: Padres +1.5 | Cronenworth over 0.5 hits | Freeman over 0.5 hits (+295)

Padres +1.5 (-177): San Diego has been on the road for most of the month, so I’d imagine it feels good to return home.

The Padres are 20-10 at Petco Park this season with a +36 run differential. They’ve won four of their past five home series.

San Diego also happens to be a stellar run line team. According to Team Rankings, the Padres’ 37-27 run line record is second-best in the majors.

As +1.5 run line underdogs, the Padres are 20-9.

During the 2024 regular season, San Diego went 8-5 straight up vs. L.A. (including a 4-2 record at home).

Canadian right-hander Nick Pivetta (6-2, 3.16 ERA) is having a solid season for the Padres. In his 12 starts, the team has covered a +1.5 run line nine times.

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MLB SGP legs

Cronenworth over 0.5 hits (-141): A handful of Padres have gotten a really good look at Dodgers starter Dustin May, and Cronenworth is one of them.

The infielder is 5-for-17 (.294) with a home run and a walk against May.

Cronenworth is 9-6 vs. this prop in his past 15 games. Through 40 games, he has a .373 on-base percentage, which would rank 25th in MLB if he had enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter.

As a left-hitting player, Cronenworth should have a bit of a platoon advantage against May tonight. So far this season, the University of Michigan product has a .256/.389/.430 slash line vs. RHPs.

Freeman over 0.5 hits (-200): Can Freeman really win a batting title in his age-35 season? It’d be a first in his career, so I’m going to say no.

But he does have an NL-best .345 BA right now, which makes him an exceptional addition to this SGP.

Freeman has 1+ hits in 39 of 53 starts (73.6%).

He’s hitless in back-to-back games but is still batting .325 over his past 20 starts.

There’s nothing to overthink about this one. Freeman is good for a hit most nights, and he’s tough to pitch around thanks to the depth throughout the Dodgers’ lineup.

Oh, and Freeman is 12-for-36 (.333) with five extra-base hits against Pivetta.

Dodgers vs. Padres predictions made at 1:05 p.m. ET on 06/09/2025.

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Blue Jays vs. Cardinals prop picks June 9: Addison Barger has value on total bases prop

The Toronto Blue Jays open a three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on Monday night.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are outperforming expectations so far as we approach the season’s midpoint. Toronto is 8-2 in its past 10, while St. Louis is coming off a series win over the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Tonight’s matchup is a pick’em.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Cardinals for June 9, with predictions on Addison Barger and Andre Pallante.

Blue Jays picks vs. Cardinals

Best Bet: Barger over 1.5 total bases (+140)

For years, the Blue Jays have been looking for a lefty power bat to consistently slot in the top half of their lineup.

With Barger, it seems like they’ve got their guy.

The 25-year-old, who was drafted by the Jays out of high school in 2018, is having a great sophomore season that includes a .496 SLG and five home runs in his past nine games.

As is often the case for left-hitting players, Barger does his best work when there’s a right-hander on the mound. He has a .525 SLG — as well as a .598 xSLG — vs. RHPs this season, per Baseball Savant.

Cardinals righty Andre Pallante has been getting away with some hard contact against lefties. He’s allowed a .226 BA and .406 SLG, but the expected numbers (.287 xBA, .489 xSLG) tell a different tale.

Pallante is coming off his worst start, too. He allowed seven earned runs over 4.1 innings on June 3 vs. the Royals.

In six starts since the beginning of May, Pallante has a 5.67 ERA. Opponents have a .281/.333/.444 slash line against him in that span.

Barger ranks in the 90th percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, xBA and xSLG. This looks like a great price for a guy with a platoon advantage.

Key stat: Barger has gone over 1.5 bases in nine of his past 13 games. On the season, he’s averaging 1.7 bases per game.

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Quick pick

Pallante under 17.5 outs (+115): Barger isn’t the only hot hitter for the Blue Jays right now.

As a whole, the offence ranks No. 2 in wRC+ (132) and SLG (.475) over the past two weeks. The team is averaging 5.5 runs/game in that span.

Combine that with the fact that Pallante has been struggling mightily, and I think we have a recipe for an under here.

The Cardinals deploy a six-man rotation, so their bullpen is thinner than most. But it’s decently well-rested right now, and five of the seven relievers should be available based on recent workloads.

Pallante has cashed this under in three straight games, as well as in seven of 12 on the season.

Blue Jays picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET on 06/09/2025.

Best MLB prop bets June 9: Fade Yusei Kikuchi and Jorge Polanco

There’s a trio of late-night MLB games in a relatively quiet Monday slate, and I’ve got MLB prop bets from two of them.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Jorge Polanco started the year off remarkably well for the Seattle Mariners, but he’s been in an extended slump that has no signs of stopping. Elsewhere, Yusei Kikuchi is struggling with command issues that have prevented him from working deep into ballgames.

Check out my best MLB prop bets for June 9, which include a prediction on Josh Lowe.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Lowe over 0.5 runs (+100)

The left-hitting Lowe typically bats leadoff (or No. 2) when facing a right-handed pitcher, which means he’ll be in an optimal spot to score.

Given how much damage the Rays have done against Boston starter Brayan Bello in the past, that’s compelling enough for me.

Tampa Bay’s active roster has compiled 94 plate appearances against Bello, batting 30-for-84 (.357) with a .512 SLG.

Lowe has been among the best of the bunch, going 7-for-17 (.412) with a home run, two doubles and a walk (1.150 OPS). Obviously, he has to get on base for this prop to cash, so that head-to-head history matters.

After Lowe, Tampa’s next three hitters are likely to be Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda. They are collectively 12-for-30 (.444) vs. Bello with three extra-base hits.

Bello has a 3.91 ERA through nine starts, but it could easily be a lot worse. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the eighth percentile in xERA (5.71) and the fifth percentile in xBA (.301).

Now he’ll face a lineup that knows how to attack him, and Lowe should be a beneficiary.

Key stat: Lowe has scored 11 runs in his past 14 starts.

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Best MLB picks

Kikuchi under 17.5 outs (-125): The Athletics have been brutal this season, but pitching is their main culprit. The lineup has been decent and should present some challenges for Kikuchi.

Over the past 14 days, here’s how the A’s rank within MLB in some notable categories:

30th (i.e., highest) in K rate — 28.2%
7th in walk rate — 9.5%
7th in wRC+ — 113

By walking and striking out a lot, the A’s are seeing a ton of pitches. And the 113 wRC+ indicates that they’re capable of doing damage.

Kikuchi has gone under 17.5 outs in four straight starts, thanks largely to an inability to stay in the zone. He has allowed 18 walks in that span.

Even if the A’s don’t put up a bunch of runs, they can chase Kikuchi from this game early by practicing a little patience.

Polanco under 0.5 runs (-125): Polanco was one of the best surprise stories through the first five-ish weeks of the season … but the crash has been real.

First 26 games: .369/.407/.750 slash line, 15 runs, 14 extra-base hits

Past 26 games: .151/.207/.209 slash line, six runs, three extra-base hits

Polanco has gone under 0.5 runs in 16 of his past 21 starts (76.2%). He’s a strong fade candidate right now.

Arizona starter Merrill Kelly had some rough starts at the end of May, but he’s coming off 7.0 innings of one-hit ball against Atlanta. Kelly has a 2.51 ERA over his past 10 outings.

MLB prop picks made at 10:12 a.m. ET on 06/09/2025.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Sunday Night Baseball prop bets: Aaron Judge has impressive value on bases prop

The Boston Red Sox are running into one of the hottest pitchers in baseball when they face the New York Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: Carlos Rodon has won seven consecutive decisions and is a key reason why the Yankees are home favourites tonight. Aaron Judge was quiet last night, but is still flirting with a .400 average well into the season.

Check out my Red Sox vs. Yankees prop bets, featuring Rodon and Judge.

Red Sox vs. Yankees prop bets

Best Bet: Judge over 1.5 total bases (+100)

What am I missing here?

Judge has easily been the best hitter on the planet this season, so I’ll take these even-money odds pretty much every time.

I might’ve hesitated last night, when Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet was on the mound. But tonight it’ll be rookie Hunter Dobbins, who has a 4.06 ERA and a .435 opponent SLG through 44.1 innings.

In other words, this isn’t a matchup to shy away from.

Let’s get back to Judge, who has an absurd .390/.488/.746 slash line this season. As you might imagine, he leads the majors in all three categories, along with total bases, hits and bWAR.

Judge has 176 total bases in 63 games … that’s 2.8 per game.

The reigning AL MVP is also a Baseball Savant darling, ranking in the 98th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xBA, xSLG and average exit velocity.

He also walks a lot (15.2%, 96th percentile), and that’s often the greatest risk with taking the over on Judge’s bases prop.

But on the bright side, Dobbins’ low walk rate (5.2%), which ranks in the 87th percentile, is arguably his greatest attribute.

This seems like a fantastic price to back MLB’s best hitter.

Key stat: Judge has gone over 1.5 bases in 41 of 63 games (65.1%).

Best MLB picks

Rodon over 7.5 Ks (-106): Rodon is absolutely rolling right now, posting a 1.27 ERA in his past nine starts. He’s cashed this bet in four of his past five, and I’ll happily buy in again.

The left-hander has two elite swing-and-miss pitches: changeup and slider. Overall, he ranks in the 90th percentile in whiff rate and the 92nd percentile in K rate.

Boston has the fourth-highest K rate this season (23.6%).

Recently, the Red Sox have been even more strikeout-happy than that. They have a 27.0 K% in their past 10 games, which is higher than any team’s season-long rate.

Red Sox vs. Yankees prop bets made at 3:50 p.m. ET on 06/08/2025.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Sunday Night Baseball prop bets: Aaron Judge has impressive value on bases prop

The Boston Red Sox are running into one of the hottest pitchers in baseball when they face the New York Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: Carlos Rodon has won seven consecutive decisions and is a key reason why the Yankees are home favourites tonight. Aaron Judge was quiet last night, but is still flirting with a .400 average well into the season.

Check out my Red Sox vs. Yankees prop bets, featuring Rodon and Judge.

Red Sox vs. Yankees prop bets

Best Bet: Judge over 1.5 total bases (+102)

What am I missing here?

Judge has easily been the best hitter on the planet this season, so I’ll take these plus-money odds pretty much every time.

I might’ve hesitated last night, when Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet was on the mound. But tonight it’ll be rookie Hunter Dobbins, who has a 4.06 ERA and a .435 opponent SLG through 44.1 innings.

In other words, this isn’t a matchup to shy away from.

Let’s get back to Judge, who has an absurd .390/.488/.746 slash line this season. As you might imagine, he leads the majors in all three categories, along with total bases, hits and bWAR.

Judge has 176 total bases in 63 games … that’s 2.8 per game.

The reigning AL MVP is also a Baseball Savant darling, ranking in the 98th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xBA, xSLG and average exit velocity.

He also walks a lot (15.2%, 96th percentile), and that’s often the greatest risk with taking the over on Judge’s bases prop.

But on the bright side, Dobbins’ low walk rate (5.2%), which ranks in the 87th percentile, is arguably his greatest attribute.

This seems like a fantastic price to back MLB’s best hitter.

Key stat: Judge has gone over 1.5 bases in 41 of 63 games (65.1%).

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Best MLB picks

Rodon over 7.5 Ks (-105): Rodon is absolutely rolling right now, posting a 1.27 ERA in his past nine starts. He’s cashed this bet in four of his past five, and I’ll happily buy in again.

The left-hander has two elite swing-and-miss pitches: changeup and slider. Overall, he ranks in the 90th percentile in whiff rate and the 92nd percentile in K rate.

Boston has the fourth-highest K rate this season (23.6%).

Recently, the Red Sox have been even more strikeout-happy than that. They have a 27.0 K% in their past 10 games, which is higher than any team’s season-long rate.

Red Sox vs. Yankees prop bets made at 2:10 p.m. ET on 06/08/2025.

Best MLB prop bets June 8: Look for Trout, Ramos to shine on Sunday

Mike Trout headlines my MLB prop bets for Sunday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Trout is still hammering the ball, but he hasn’t been rewarded as much as expected so far in 2025. He’ll face a struggling pitcher this afternoon and should be able to do damage.

Check out my best MLB prop bets for June 8, which include predictions on Heliot Ramos and Nolan Arenado.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Ramos over 0.5 runs (+120)

Ramos isn’t a household name, but he’s working toward that status with his production at the plate.

The 25-year-old was an all-star last season and is well on his way to that status again. He’s posted a .295/.361/.488 slash line for the Giants in 63 games.

After starting the year as primarily a heart-of-the-order hitter, Ramos has worked his way up the lineup. He’s batted in the first or second spot in 15 consecutive games.

Ramos hasn’t put up elite batted-ball numbers, but he’s solid across the board.

According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 73rd percentile or better in average exit velocity, barrel rate and expected slugging percentage.

Typically, with Spencer Strider on the other side, it might be difficult to bet on a runs prop like this. But Strider really hasn’t been himself.

His expected ERA (6.41) is among the worst in the majors, and his fastball velocity (95.2 mph) is down three miles an hour from where it was a few seasons ago. That’s what elbow surgery can do to a player.

Strider isn’t as imposing as usual, and Ramos is a rising star for the Giants. I think there’s some value here.

Key stat: Ramos has scored in 15 of his past 25 games, posting a 1.011 OPS in that span.

Best MLB picks

Arenado over 0.5 RBI (+150): Arenado came in clutch for the Cardinals yesterday, delivering a walk-off RBI single in the ninth against the Dodgers.

It hasn’t been a stellar season for him, but the third baseman continues racking up opportunities to make an impact.

Arenado ranks eighth in the majors in plate appearances with runners in scoring position (81). He averages 1.7 PAs with runners on second and/or third per game.

Today, Arenado faces a longtime (and familiar) foe in Clayton Kershaw. The veteran third baseman is 22-for-74 (.297) with a .554 SLG in this head-to-head matchup.

Arenado has cashed this bet in 12 of his past 20 games. If he has another RISP opportunity, I like his chances.

Trout over 1.5 total bases (-110): This isn’t a great price when you look at how Trout has fared. But his batted-ball quality remains elite, and this is a matchup he should be able to take advantage of.

Trout and the Angels will face Seattle’s George Kirby, who is still trying to find his way. Three starts into his 2025 season, Kirby has allowed 13 runs on 21 hits in just 13.2 innings (8.56 ERA).

In the past, Trout has batted 3-for-6 with a home run and two walks against Kirby.

Also, Trout has a .602 xSLG, per Baseball Savant, which far out-paces his actual SLG (.470). He has the ninth-highest slugging discrepancy in the majors.

MLB prop picks made at 9:42 a.m. ET on 06/08/2025.

Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals Game 2 SGP predictions: Back Gilgeous-Alexander, fade Haliburton

Game 2 of the NBA Finals is set for tip-off from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on Sunday night.

The pregame narrative: In Game 1, the Thunder were the latest victims of the Indiana Pacers’ never-say-die tendencies. Indiana wiped away a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter for yet another stunning victory. OKC is a massive favourite to even the series tonight.

Check out my Pacers vs. Thunder SGP predictions for Game 2 on June 8, featuring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard.

Pacers vs. Thunder predictions

Parlay: Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Nembhard over 4.5 assists | Haliburton under 18.5 points (+300)

Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-278): It’s hard to view 30 points as a given, but it’s in that range for Gilgeous-Alexander on a nightly basis.

The NBA MVP averaged a league-high 32.7 PPG this season.

He has 30+ points in 12 of his past 15 playoff games.

He scored 38 points in Game 1 on mediocre shooting (14-of-30).

If SGA takes 30 shots again, this is really going to feel like a lock. And I wouldn’t say that’s out of the question.

Gilgeous-Alexander attempted 55 shots over the final two games of the Western Conference finals. Everyone knows that the OKC offence runs through him, but that doesn’t mean there’s an easy way to stop it.

OKC can ill afford to go down 0-2 in the Finals, obviously. The Hamilton, Ontario native should stay heavily involved to give his team its best chance to win.

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NBA SGP legs

Nembhard over 4.5 assists (-143): Nembhard isn’t the primary passer on the Pacers, but there’s still plenty of room for him to get over this line.

Look at how Game 1 played out. Nembhard made half as many passes as Haliburton (45 vs. 89), but they finished with six assists apiece.

That might seem like a fluke, but it’s important to remember that not all passes are created equal.

According to NBA.com’s tracking data, Nembhard had 12 potential assists, which are marked as passes that lead directly to a shot. Haliburton had 13.

Throughout the playoffs, Nembhard has averaged 8.8 potential assists per game, meaning roughly half would have to convert for him to cash this bet. That’s certainly doable.

The Aurora, Ontario native is 10-7 vs. this prop in the postseason.

Haliburton under 18.5 points (-167): One reason why I like Nembhard’s assists prop is because the Pacers have so many capable scorers in their rotation. That’s also a reason to fade Haliburton.

In Game 1, Indiana had six scorers with 10-plus points. They had seven players averaging double figures during the regular season, so that type of balance isn’t an anomaly.

The Pacers need Haliburton to ball out, certainly, but he doesn’t have to carry the scoring load on his own.

He had 14 points in the series-opening victory. That’s the fifth time this postseason that he went under this point total in an Indiana win.

Haliburton has now gone under this total in all three games vs. OKC this year. He averaged 18.6 PPG during the regular season, so fading this total against the league’s top defence makes sense.

Pacers vs. Thunder predictions made at 11:56 a.m. ET 06/08/2025.