The Toronto Blue Jays open a three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on Monday night.
The pregame narrative: Both teams are outperforming expectations so far as we approach the season’s midpoint. Toronto is 8-2 in its past 10, while St. Louis is coming off a series win over the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Tonight’s matchup is a pick’em.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Cardinals for June 9, with predictions on Addison Barger and Andre Pallante.
Blue Jays picks vs. Cardinals
Best Bet: Barger over 1.5 total bases (+140)
For years, the Blue Jays have been looking for a lefty power bat to consistently slot in the top half of their lineup.
With Barger, it seems like they’ve got their guy.
The 25-year-old, who was drafted by the Jays out of high school in 2018, is having a great sophomore season that includes a .496 SLG and five home runs in his past nine games.
As is often the case for left-hitting players, Barger does his best work when there’s a right-hander on the mound. He has a .525 SLG — as well as a .598 xSLG — vs. RHPs this season, per Baseball Savant.
Cardinals righty Andre Pallante has been getting away with some hard contact against lefties. He’s allowed a .226 BA and .406 SLG, but the expected numbers (.287 xBA, .489 xSLG) tell a different tale.
Pallante is coming off his worst start, too. He allowed seven earned runs over 4.1 innings on June 3 vs. the Royals.
In six starts since the beginning of May, Pallante has a 5.67 ERA. Opponents have a .281/.333/.444 slash line against him in that span.
Barger ranks in the 90th percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, xBA and xSLG. This looks like a great price for a guy with a platoon advantage.
Key stat: Barger has gone over 1.5 bases in nine of his past 13 games. On the season, he’s averaging 1.7 bases per game.
Quick pick
Pallante under 17.5 outs (+115): Barger isn’t the only hot hitter for the Blue Jays right now.
As a whole, the offence ranks No. 2 in wRC+ (132) and SLG (.475) over the past two weeks. The team is averaging 5.5 runs/game in that span.
Combine that with the fact that Pallante has been struggling mightily, and I think we have a recipe for an under here.
The Cardinals deploy a six-man rotation, so their bullpen is thinner than most. But it’s decently well-rested right now, and five of the seven relievers should be available based on recent workloads.
Pallante has cashed this under in three straight games, as well as in seven of 12 on the season.
Blue Jays picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET on 06/09/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.