Jordan Horrobin

It’s an all-ace matchup tonight between the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers, as Logan Webb and Yoshinobu Yamamoto take the mound.

The pregame narrative: Both pitchers own sub-2.60 ERAs, as well as top-five NL Cy Young odds, which should make for an electric matchup. The Giants (40-29) are one game back of the Dodgers (41-28) in the NL West standings.

Check out my Giants vs. Dodgers prop bets, featuring Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Willy Adames.

Giants vs. Dodgers prop bets

Best Bet: Ohtani over 0.5 runs (-141)

I know Webb is a talented pitcher, but I have a hard time staying away from Ohtani’s runs prop when it sits at a playable price.

Ohtani, a two-time reigning MVP, is the leadoff man for MLB’s highest-scoring offence.

With an NL-high 23 home runs, he’s more than capable of driving himself in. But he also has two elite bats right behind him that can handle the job.

Mookie Betts isn’t putting up his typically dominant offensive numbers, but he still has a 119 OPS+. Then there’s Freddie Freeman (182 OPS+), who current leads the NL with a .347 BA.

Betts and Freeman bat second and third, respectively, for the Dodgers. And they both have great numbers against Webb:

• Betts: 15-for-36, .639 SLG
• Freeman: 14-for-37 (.378), .541 SLG

Ohtani hasn’t seen Webb quite that much, but he still has the upper hand in their head-to-head matchup. He has reached base in seven of 14 plate appearances vs. Webb, with two doubles and three walks.

Key Stat: Ohtani has an MLB-high 68 runs, cashing this bet in 44 of 67 games (65.7%).

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Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+118): Webb hardly walks anybody, forcing opposing hitters to reach base on their own accord. Freeman is certainly the type of guy who can do that.

I’ve already mentioned his status as the NL batting leader (.347 BA) and his 14-for-37 stat line against Webb. But there’s even more to like.

• Freeman ranks in the 93rd percentile in xSLG (.546), per Baseball Savant.

• He has gone over 1.5 bases in 12 of his past 23 games and is averaging 2.2 bases/game this season.

Left-hitting players (like Freeman and Ohtani) have a .729 OPS vs. Webb this season. That’s 150 points north of what right-hitting players have posted vs. Webb.

Adames over 0.5 runs (+165): Adames is batting .204, so this might look like a reach.

But he was recently bumped back up to the No. 2 spot in the Giants’ order, and as long as he’s there, this price will have my attention.

• In 44 games from the No. 2 spot, Adames has scored 28 runs and posted a .693 OPS (vs. a .627 OPS overall).

• He has cashed this bet in exactly half of his starts from the second spot in the order (22 of 44).

Yamamoto has looked a bit more human in recent outings, allowing 14 runs with 37 baserunners in his past six starts (3.74 ERA).

Giants vs. Dodgers prop bets made at 2:12 p.m. ET on 06/13/2025.

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For the second time this month, the Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies embark on a three-game series.

The pregame narrative: Kevin Gausman and Ranger Suarez will take the mound tonight. Neither pitcher factored into the June 3-5 series, in which the Jays took two of three games in Toronto. Tonight, Suarez and the host Phillies are slight moneyline favourites.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Phillies for June 13, with predictions on Bo Bichette and Nick Castellanos.

Blue Jays picks vs. Phillies

Best Bet: Castellanos over 1.5 total bases (+138)

Castellanos is swinging a hot bat right now, and he tends to do his best work at home.

• Over his past 15 games, Castellanos is batting .345 with a .932 OPS. He’s averaging 2.1 bases/game in that span.

• This season, Castellanos has a .315/.343/.480 slash line in 34 home games. His OPS at home (.824) is 132 points better than his OPS on the road (.692).

Since the start of May, Castellanos has cashed this bet in 11 of 19 games at Citizens Bank Park.

Castellanos has been a slightly above-average hitter this year, but his lack of fielding value has made him a negative-WAR player overall. Fortunately, that’s of no concern for this wager.

It’s possible that the Phillies would like him to be a bit more selective, given his 5.0% walk rate (15th percentile, per Baseball Savant). But since walks don’t count toward bases totals, his free-swinging tendencies actually help us here.

As does Castellanos’ solid track record against Gausman.

Castellanos is 9-for-27 (.333) with two home runs and four doubles in this head-to-head matchup.

Key stat: Castellanos has gone over 1.5 bases in 10 of his past 15 games.

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Quick pick

Bichette under 1.5 total bases (-127): Bichette’s struggles against lefty pitchers started last year, and they haven’t stopped.

Check out his stats against southpaws since the beginning of 2024:

• .200 BA
• .261 SLG
• 43 wRC+

Tonight, he’ll have a tough task against Suarez (4-1, 2.70 ERA), who’s been dynamite after a brutal season debut.

From his second start onward, Suarez has a 1.36 ERA. Opponents have a .212/.263/.301 slash line against him in that span.

Blue Jays picks made at 12:10 p.m. ET on 06/13/2025.

The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals close the book on their season series Thursday night with a matchup at Kauffman Stadium.

The pregame narrative: New York is 5-0 vs. Kansas City, winning four of those matchups by multiple runs. The Royals are underdogs again tonight despite having a more promising starter on the mound.

Check out my Yankees vs. Royals prop bets, featuring three hitters: Jac Caglianone, Vinnie Pasquantino and Paul Goldschmidt.

Yankees vs. Royals prop bets

Best Bet: Pasquantino over 0.5 RBI (+155)

Pasquantino is having a great June, but his hot streak goes back further than that.

This is what the first baseman has accomplished in his past 20 games:

• .421 BA
• 1.054 OPS
• 11.6% K rate
• 1+ RBI in 9 of 20

Pasquantino has spent most of the season batting in the No. 3 spot for the Royals, but he shifted to the cleanup spot near the start of June. I’d say that’s an even better spot for RBI opportunities.

Sure enough, Pasquantino has cashed his RBI prop in five of eight games since becoming the cleanup hitter.

I’m hoping he can keep that up against Yankees starter Will Warren (4-3, 5.34 ERA), who isn’t a particularly imposing pitcher.

Warren has allowed a 50.7% hard-hit rate this season, per Baseball Savant, which ranks in the third percentile in MLB. His K rate is high (29.4%, 87th percentile), but Pasquantino isn’t a big strikeout guy.

Also, Warren has allowed a .798 OPS to left-hitting players this season, so Pasquantino should enjoy a nice platoon advantage.

Key Stat: In June, Pasquantino has had 18 at-bats with runners on base (t-30th in MLB).

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Caglianone over 1.5 bases (+160): Pasquantino isn’t the only left-hitting, heart-of-the-order bat for the Royals that I’m interested in.

Calgianone is 8-for-33 (.242) with two doubles so far. But his hard-hit rate (55.6%) and xBA (.339) suggest better results are on the way.

The fortunes could turn for the 22-year-old at any time.

In 152 at-bats against right-handed pitchers this season (minor league and majors), Caglianone is slugging .572.

Goldschmidt over 0.5 runs (+108): I wish I knew whether Goldschmidt was batting leadoff or not at the time of this writing.

He was in the No. 1 spot for the first two games of this series, and if that’s the case again, this price will be quite compelling.

Goldschmidt has scored 19 runs in 22 starts as the Yankees’ leadoff man. He cashed this prop on Tuesday and Wednesday against the Royals.

Kansas City starter Seth Lugo (3-5, 3.46) is having a solid year, but he allowed four runs on seven hits when he faced the Yankees in April. And he’s allowed multiple runs in 10 of 11 starts this year.

Also, Goldschmidt is 8-for-14 with two walks and two home runs vs. Lugo.

Yankees vs. Royals prop bets made at 10:38 a.m. ET on 06/12/2025.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres put on a thrilling series opener last night, and they’ll get back to it on Tuesday night at Petco Park.

The pregame narrative: L.A. won Monday’s tilt, 8-7, in a 10-inning game that featured four lead changes. Dylan Cease (1-5, 4.72 ERA) looks to overcome some mediocre performances against a Dodgers lineup that has seen him plenty of times before.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Padres predictions, including props on Max Muncy and Teoscar Hernandez in a +285 SGP.

Dodgers vs. Padres predictions

Parlay: Padres +1.5 | Muncy over 0.5 hits | Hernandez under 1.5 total bases (+285)

Padres +1.5 (-195): This pick cashed in a back-and-forth game last night and I feel good about running it back.

• The Padres are 20-11 at Petco Park this season with a +35 run differential. They’ve won four of their past five home series.

• San Diego has a 38-27 run line record, which is second-best in the majors, according to Team Rankings.

• As +1.5 run line underdogs, the Padres are 21-9.

• Since the start of last season (playoffs included), the Padres are 6-2 vs. a +1.5 run line when facing the Dodgers at home.

Cease’s 4.72 ERA for the season isn’t great, but his 3.20 FIP suggests some defensive bounces haven’t gone his way.

The right-hander has allowed three or fewer runs in 12 of 13 outings, so it’s not like he’s prone to implosion.

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MLB SGP legs

Muncy over 0.5 hits (-122): Muncy was once blind but now can see.

That’s only slightly hyperbolic. You see, Muncy was diagnosed with astigmatism during the season, which prompted him to start wearing prescription glasses during games.

He’s told reporters that he’s not buying into the glasses being the main source of his turnaround, but that “it’s hard to deny the results.”

• Pre-glasses: .180/.295/.236 slash line, 32.4 K%

• With glasses: .279/.407/.568 slash line, 17.9 K%

Muncy has recorded a hit in 16 of his past 24 starts and is batting .304 in that span.

He’s only 1-for-8 in his career against Cease, but this recent turnaround is too good for me to ignore.

Hernandez under 1.5 total bases (-295): I’m wondering if Hernandez still isn’t quite right after his groin strain. Or that maybe he needs more time to get back up to speed.

Through the early days of May, the ex-Toronto slugger was tearing it up for the Dodgers. He had a .600 SLG following L.A.’s game on May 5.

He exited that game with a groin injury, though, missing two weeks as a result. And the numbers since he’s returned are concerning:

• .164 BA
• .274 SLG
• 20 total bases in 19 games

Things have been particularly bleak in his past 10 games: 3-for-39 (.077), 11 Ks, four total bases.

Hernandez is just 2-for-14 with six strikeouts vs. Cease. I wouldn’t pay this kind of juice in a straight wager, but the pick makes sense as part of this SGP.

Dodgers vs. Padres predictions made at 3:05 p.m. ET on 06/10/2025.

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