For the second time this month, the Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies embark on a three-game series.
The pregame narrative: Kevin Gausman and Ranger Suarez will take the mound tonight. Neither pitcher factored into the June 3-5 series, in which the Jays took two of three games in Toronto. Tonight, Suarez and the host Phillies are slight moneyline favourites.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Phillies for June 13, with predictions on Bo Bichette and Nick Castellanos.
Blue Jays picks vs. Phillies
Best Bet: Castellanos over 1.5 total bases (+138)
Castellanos is swinging a hot bat right now, and he tends to do his best work at home.
- Over his past 15 games, Castellanos is batting .345 with a .932 OPS. He’s averaging 2.1 bases/game in that span.
- This season, Castellanos has a .315/.343/.480 slash line in 34 home games. His OPS at home (.824) is 132 points better than his OPS on the road (.692).
Since the start of May, Castellanos has cashed this bet in 11 of 19 games at Citizens Bank Park.
Castellanos has been a slightly above-average hitter this year, but his lack of fielding value has made him a negative-WAR player overall. Fortunately, that’s of no concern for this wager.
It’s possible that the Phillies would like him to be a bit more selective, given his 5.0% walk rate (15th percentile, per Baseball Savant). But since walks don’t count toward bases totals, his free-swinging tendencies actually help us here.
As does Castellanos’ solid track record against Gausman.
Castellanos is 9-for-27 (.333) with two home runs and four doubles in this head-to-head matchup.
Key stat: Castellanos has gone over 1.5 bases in 10 of his past 15 games.
Quick pick
Bichette under 1.5 total bases (-127): Bichette’s struggles against lefty pitchers started last year, and they haven’t stopped.
Check out his stats against southpaws since the beginning of 2024:
- .200 BA
- .261 SLG
- 43 wRC+
Tonight, he’ll have a tough task against Suarez (4-1, 2.70 ERA), who’s been dynamite after a brutal season debut.
From his second start onward, Suarez has a 1.36 ERA. Opponents have a .212/.263/.301 slash line against him in that span.
Blue Jays picks made at 12:10 p.m. ET on 06/13/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.