Coming off a crushing defeat that added to an extended rough patch, the Atlanta Braves are back at it Friday night in a road matchup against the San Francisco Giants.
The pregame narrative: Atlanta coughed up seven runs in the ninth inning on Thursday in a one-run loss against the Diamondbacks, sinking the Braves to 2-8 in their past 10. Tonight’s showdown in the Bay Area features two very talented starters, Spencer Schwellenbach (3.13 ERA) and Hayden Birdsong (2.37).
Check out my Braves vs. Giants predictions, including props on Birdsong and Ronald Acuna Jr. in a +275 SGP.
Braves vs. Giants predictions
Parlay: Under 8.5 runs | Acuna over 0.5 hits | Birdsong over 4.5 Ks (+275)
Under 8.5 runs (-165): Pitching depth in the rotation and bullpen has carried the Giants through a rather brutal offensive stretch lately.
San Francisco is 9-9 in its past 18 games despite scoring just 2.3 runs per game. How? Because the team has allowed just 2.4 runs/game in that span.
This under is 16-2 in the Giants’ past 18 games.
Check out where the Giants’ offence ranks over that time:
- 27th in wRC+ (74)
- 30th in ISO (.101)
- 29th in BA (.209)
- 30th in SLG (.310)
Schwellenbach is having a great year, which includes a 91st-percentile chase rate, per Baseball Savant. He should feast against a desperate lineup.
On the flip side, Birdsong’s past three outings for the Giants have featured an average of just 5.0 runs. He’s capable of holding up his end of the bargain in a pitchers’ duel.
MLB SGP legs
Acuna over 0.5 hits (-305): Acuna hasn’t stolen any bases yet, but he otherwise looks like his old self for a Braves team that can certainly use the pop.
The 2023 NL MVP, who has suffered multiple ACL tears, made his season debut on May 23 and homered on the first pitch he saw. He hasn’t slowed down since.
- 15-for-45 (.333 BA)
- 1.056 OPS
- 1+ hits in 10 of 12 games
Acuna hasn’t faced Birdsong yet, but I’ll put the right fielder up against any arm in this market.
So far, 23 of his 29 balls in play have been hard-hit (i.e., 95 mph exit velocity or greater). That’s an absurd clip.
Birdsong over 4.5 Ks (-137): Birdsong had his ups and downs as a starter last year, but the strikeout stuff was never in question.
As a rookie, the right-hander posted an 11.0 K/9 over 16 starts. He averaged 5.5 Ks per outing.
But given that he also had a 4.75 ERA, the Giants slid him into the bullpen to start this season. Now he’s back in the rotation and has cashed this bet in back-to-back starts.
Atlanta has MLB’s eighth-highest K rate over the past two weeks (25.3%), and this line isn’t asking for too much.
Birdsong is 13-6 vs. this Ks prop in 19 career starts. He had five Ks over 5.0 innings vs. the Braves last year.
Braves vs. Giants predictions made at 10:05 a.m. ET on 06/06/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.