The NL-leading New York Mets visit the MLB-worst Colorado Rockies on Saturday night for a matchup at Coors Field.
The pregame narrative: For the second time in less than a week, Clay Holmes takes the mound against Carson Palmquist. Holmes’ Mets won the June 1 game, 5-3, in New York.
Check out my Mets vs. Rockies predictions, including props on Holmes and Pete Alonso in a +270 SGP.
Mets vs. Rockies predictions
Parlay: Mets ML | Holmes under 5.5 Ks | Alonso over 1.5 bases (+270)
Mets moneyline (-295): New York is light years ahead of Colorado in the standings right now. But let’s put that into perspective a little bit.
The Mets (40-24) are the first NL team to reach 40 wins. The Rockies (12-51) are on pace for just 30 wins.
Colorado did sweep the Miami Marlins this week, snapping a 22-series losing streak (MLB record). But that doesn’t wipe away how dreadful the Rockies have been all season long.
The Mets went 3-0 vs. the Rockies from May 30 through June 1, winning all three games by multiple runs.
Palmquist is 0-4 through four outings, posting an 8.50 ERA and a .965 opponent OPS so far. Not an ideal start to his MLB career.
MLB SGP legs
Holmes under 5.5 strikeouts (-143): I think Holmes gives the Mets a good chance to win on Saturday, but I don’t think he’ll have to mow down the Rockies’ lineup to do it.
Holmes had just three Ks over 7.0 innings when he faced Colorado last weekend. Facing the same lineup twice in a week likely won’t help him fool the hitters.
Familiarity aside, this just isn’t a number Holmes typically exceeds. He’s averaging 4.9 Ks per start this year and has gone under this total in seven straight.
The Rockies have the highest K% in the majors, but Holmes isn’t a big strikeout guy. According to Baseball Savant, he has below-average percentile rankings in chase rate, whiff rate and K rate.
Alonso over 1.5 total bases (-143): I’m never eager to place a straight wager on a total bases prop at minus odds, but Alonso’s inclusion in this SGP makes sense.
Check out what the Mets slugger has accomplished in his past 13 games:
- .340 BA
- 1.201 OPS
- 2+ bases in 10 of 13
Alonso is slugging .580 this year, which ranks fifth in MLB. But his xSLG (.649) suggests he could be doing a whole lot more.
In the thin air of Coors Field’s mile-high atmosphere, Alonso should be able to make the ball fly. He doubled in the series opener last night, and he homered off Palmquist last weekend.
Mets vs. Rockies predictions made at 10:05 a.m. ET on 06/07/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.