To kickstart a six-game homestand, the Toronto Blue Jays host the floundering Athletics on Thursday night.
The pregame narrative: The A’s are 1-13 in their past 14 games and now have the second-worst run differential in the American League (-89). Unsurprisingly, the Blue Jays are favoured to win tonight at Rogers Centre.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Athletics prop picks on May 29, featuring Jacob Wilson and Bo Bichette.
Blue Jays picks vs. Athletics
Best bet: Wilson over 0.5 runs (+140)
I don’t understand this price, but it has my attention.
Wilson is piling up hits at an elite clip, and he bats right at the top of the Athletics’ order.
Since May 7, Wilson has been the A’s leadoff or No. 2 hitter in every game. And the rookie has earned that promotion.
The sixth-overall pick in the 2023 draft is batting .353, which is the third-highest BA in the majors.
He hardly ever walks, but he also has the second-lowest strikeout rate in MLB (5.4%).
In 18 games since moving up to the Nos. 1 and 2 spots in the lineup for good, Wilson has a .377/.449/.638 slash line.
Somehow, he’s only scored 11 runs in those 18 games. The A’s have a 103 wRC+ with runners on base — and a 101 wRC+ with runners in scoring position — so it’s not like the lineup as a whole should be dragging him down.
Run props are all about opportunities, and Wilson is generating plenty of those right now. I think there’s some serious value at this price.
Key stat: Wilson has scored a run in 24 of 53 games (45.3%). The implied probability of this prop is 41.7%.
Quick pick
Bichette under 1.5 total bases (-121): Bichette was the hero for Toronto last night, ripping a pinch-hit homer in the ninth inning to lift the Jays to a 2-0 win.
The shortstop had been dealing with lower-back tightness, which is why he was coming off the bench in the first place. I’m not sure if that tightness will be a factor tonight, but it’s something to consider.
My main reason for fading Bichette is that he’s been dreadful against lefties since the start of last season:
- 16-for-99 (.162)
- .192 SLG
Bichette is 0-for-3 with a 40.0% whiff rate against A’s starter Jacob Lopez (0-2, 2.57 ERA), who has fared well in an extremely limited sample.
Last time out, Lopez held a loaded Philadelphia Phillies squad to one run on three hits in 7.0 innings.
Athletics vs. Blue Jays picks made at 10:55 a.m. ET on 05/29/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.