In a game with the lowest over/under on the Memorial Day slate, the Toronto Blue Jays face Jacob deGrom and the Texas Rangers.
The pregame narrative: It’ll be difficult to overtake Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young race, but deGrom (4-1, 2.33 ERA) is one of the aces who’s expected to try. He has a 1.45 ERA and a .182 opponent batting average in his past five starts, and the Rangers are 4-1 in that span.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Rangers prop picks on May 26, featuring deGrom, Kevin Gausman and George Springer.
Blue Jays picks vs. Rays
Best Bet: Springer under 0.5 hits (+125)
Talks of a renaissance season for Springer might have been a tad premature.
The 35-year-old outfielder, who’s seeking his first all-star nod since 2022, posted a .960 OPS in 32 games through May 6. But since then, he’s been slumping hard.
- 7-for-56 (.125 BA)
- .490 OPS
- 17 Ks
- Hitless in 10 of 15 starts
Staring down a matchup against deGrom, Springer looks like a prime fade candidate at this price.
deGrom has held right-hitting opponents to a .170/.217/.200 slash line so far through 10 starts. And his .217 xBA ranks in the 81st percentile, per Baseball Savant.
The two-time Cy Young winner is essentially a two-pitch pitcher against righty hitters, pumping upper-90s fastballs and spinning sliders with excellent run.
Springer is just 4-for-30 (.133) with 13 Ks against sliders this year, so that should be an effective out pitch for deGrom, as it often is anyway.
For a guy trying to break out of a growing slump, Springer hasn’t lucked out matchup-wise today.
Key stat: Springer is hitless in seven of his past eight starts, batting 2-for-29 (.069) in that span.
Quick pick
Gausman over 5.5 Ks (+100): Gausman had 14 Ks in two starts against the Rangers last season, cashing this bet both times.
His 8.5 K/9 this year is well below what we saw a couple of seasons ago, but he’s been reliable against this number in recent outings.
- 6+ Ks in 6 of his past 8 starts
- 9.8 K/9 in that span
Gausman has a 31.2% K rate against the current Rangers lineup in 103 at-bats. Also, Texas has the fourth-highest K rate in the majors over the past two weeks (24.1%).
Gausman has worked into the sixth inning or later in nine of 10 starts. If he does that again, I really like his chances of hitting this mark.
deGrom over 6.5 Ks (+100): Let’s just buy in on both sides of the pitching matchup, shall we?
deGrom has 26 Ks in his past three outings and is 4-1 vs. this prop in his past five.
He ranks in the 81st percentile or better in K rate, walk rate, chase rate and whiff rate. The limited walks are a good sign for his pitch count, while the other metrics speak to the nastiness of his arsenal.
Coming off a season-high 103 pitches, it’s nice to see that the Rangers are willing to give deGrom a long leash when he’s on.
Blue Jays vs. Rangers picks made at 10:00 a.m. ET on 05/26/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.