It’s a light MLB slate on Thursday, and my three picks come from the five-game evening slate.
Today’s MLB props narrative: In the final game of the night, Isaac Paredes and the Houston Astros look to pounce on a pitcher making his season debut. Elsewhere, AJ Smith-Shawver will try to mow down the Washington Nationals for the second time in as many weeks.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Wednesday, May 22, which includes a prediction on Cedric Mullins.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Paredes over 0.5 runs (+132)
Paredes is known as a pull-happy slugger, but his game is a bit more well-rounded than that.
Last year, Paredes had a 93rd-percentile walk rate (11.9%), per Baseball Savant. And his 13.9% walk rate so far this year is even higher.
He can still mash, though, tagging four home runs in his past four games. The 2024 all-star has a .308/.419/.712 slash line since May 7 (14 games).
Paredes started the year in the No. 2 spot in the Astros’ lineup before sliding to No. 3. But Houston moved him back to No. 2 a few games ago, which makes him an even more compelling pick to score.
George Kirby gets the ball for the Seattle Mariners tonight in his season debut. Kirby started the year on the injured list with shoulder inflammation and has since made a few rehab starts.
On Friday, in his most recent minor league outing, Kirby allowed four runs on 10 hits in 4.0 innings.
Also, the whiff rate on his slider over his three rehab starts was just 15.4% — down from 26.9% last season.
Kirby is a talented pitcher, so I don’t want to make too much of those numbers. But he doesn’t seem to be entering tonight at his sharpest, and Paredes is on a hot streak that is too good to ignore.
Key stat: Over his past 14 games, Paredes is 10-4 against this prop.
Best MLB picks
Smith-Shawver over 5.5 Ks (+138): The Washington Nationals can stack as many as eight left-hitting players in their batting order tonight against the right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver. But that’s not necessarily to their benefit.
Smith-Shawver has enjoyed some notable reverse splits through seven outings this season:
- vs. LHHs: .154 BA, .471 OPS, 29.8 K%
- vs. RHHs: .297 BA, .814 OPS, 19.5 K%
Last Thursday, Smith-Shawver tossed 6.0 innings of two-hit ball against the Nationals, allowing just one unearned run while striking out six.
He’s 4-2 against this line in his past six starts. And he finished with exactly five Ks in both outliers.
Mullins over 0.5 hits (-134): Mullins is having a so-so year at the plate, but this is a really playable price for him against a struggling pitcher.
- Boston Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito has allowed 25 hits and 16 runs through four starts.
- Giolito’s opponents are batting .305 with an .861 OPS against him.
- Mullins is 8-for-13 with a triple and three doubles against Giolito.
Though Mullins is only batting .236 overall this season, his .261 career BA against righties is a fairly respectable mark.
Also, the outfielder has cashed this bet in seven of his past 10 games, batting 11-for-38 (.289) in that span.
MLB prop picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 05/22/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.