Half of MLB is in action on Monday evening to kick off a new week.
Today’s MLB props narrative: The Toronto Blue Jays aren’t playing, but Jays fans can catch Robbie Ray on the mound as the Giants host the Royals out west. In the game with the highest projected total on the slate, Kyle Schwarber and the Phillies visit the Rockies.
Check out my MLB prop bets for May 19, featuring Ray, Schwarber and Riley Greene.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Ray over 5.5 Ks (-113)
Ray has been the quintessential effectively wild pitcher so far in 2025.
The veteran southpaw leads the NL in walks (26), yet he’s 6-0 with a 3.04 ERA.
And his FIP (3.74) is practically identical to what it was when he earned 2021 AL Cy Young honours with Toronto (3.69).
Though he ranks in the 12th percentile in walk rate, per Baseball Savant, Ray has overcome that issue by ranking in the 75th and 77th percentiles in K rate and whiff rate, respectively.
He has a knack for putting out his own fires. As his opponent tonight knows too well.
Against the active Kansas City Royals lineup, Ray has racked up 28 Ks in just 66 plate appearances — good for a staggering 42.4 K%.
The Royals have the second-lowest K rate in the majors (18.9%), which is why this number is set fairly low for someone of Ray’s pedigree.
Still, the head-to-head history against KC’s lineup is encouraging. As are Ray’s recent outings.
In his past seven starts, Ray is 5-2 vs. this prop while averaging 7.0 Ks.
Key stat: The average MLB whiff rate is 25.2%. Three of Ray’s four pitch offerings have a whiff rate of 34.5% or greater.
Best MLB picks
Schwarber under 0.5 runs (+155): The Phillies are facing a struggling pitcher (Kyle Freeland, 6.15 ERA) tonight in the very welcoming offensive environment of Coors Field. Still, this price looks off to me.
Schwarber is no longer the Phillies’ leadoff man, where his run-scoring potential was maximized. In early April, he was moved down in the order, and now he consistently bats third or fourth.
That’s still a great spot to mash, but it makes him less likely to cross the plate himself.
In his past 25 games — all as the No. 3 or 4 hitter — Schwarber has gone under 0.5 runs 13 times.
This is a dangerous play, but I think there’s serious upside based on the price.
Also, Schwarber is just 2-for-15 with seven Ks and zero walks against Colorado’s Freeland.
Greene over 1.5 bases (+120): Against right-handed pitching, Greene is absolutely worth a flier on his bases prop right now.
- The left-hitting outfielder has a .317/.354/.618 slash line against RHPs this season (compared to a .182/.274/.273 line vs. LHPs).
- Greene has 2+ bases in 6 of his past 8 games. In the two outliers, he went 0-for-5 with three Ks against lefty pitchers.
Greene will face right-hander Sonny Gray tonight, and Gray isn’t exactly coming in hot.
Over his past four starts, Gray has allowed 26 hits and a .500 SLG over 21.0 innings.
With a 91st-percentile barrel rate (16.3%), Greene has made a habit of delivering the highest-possible contact quality for the Tigers. When he has the platoon advantage, watch out.
MLB prop picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 05/19/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.