A trio of Saturday night games have my attention for today’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Luis Severino looks to bounce back from his roughest outing of the year, and the conditions seem ripe for him to do just that. Elsewhere, Canadian slugger Josh Naylor digs in for what should be a juicy matchup against Colorado right-hander German Marquez.
Check out my MLB prop bets for May 17, including my best bet on Rhys Hoskins.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Hoskins over 0.5 hits (-130)
I stared down Hoskins over 1.5 bases (+175) for a bit before opting for the safer play. If this prop wasn’t at such a playable price, I would’ve taken a bigger swing.
Where is the Hoskins disrespect coming from? I’m not sure.
He has a .286/.392/.451 slash line, which is good for a 136 wRC+ (39th out of 164 qualified hitters). Players with numbers like that don’t tend to see this type of price on their hits props.
The pitching matchup isn’t ideal, as Pablo Lopez (3-2, 2.77 ERA) is having a nice year so far. Lopez has held right-hitting players to 11-for-67 batting (.164) with 23 strikeouts.
But Hoskins knows how to figure Lopez out. In their previous matchups, Hoskins is 6-for-14 with three home runs and two doubles.
One of the biggest risks to this bet might be Hoskins’ watchful eye. He has a 13.9% walk rate, which ranks in the 88th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
Fortunately, Lopez is the type of pitcher who should force Hoskins to put the ball in play. Lopez’s 4.5% walk rate ranks in the 91st percentile among hurlers.
Key stat: In his past 12 games, Hoskins is 14-for-42 (.333) with a .999 OPS. He is 9-3 vs. this prop in that span.
Best MLB picks
Naylor over 1.5 bases (+100): A platoon advantage for a red-hot hitter against a struggling pitcher? Yeah, I’m buying that at even money.
- Naylor has a .330/.403/.536 slash line against RHPs this season in 130 plate appearances.
- Naylor has 2+ bases in four straight games and in 22 of 44 games this season.
- Colorado’s German Marquez has allowed a .351/.422/.542 slash line over his past seven starts.
Naylor is 3-for-9 vs. Marquez with two home runs. The Mississauga, Ontario native is well worth a play at this price.
Severino over 17.5 outs (-134): Severino got torched by a stellar Yankees offence last time out, but that doesn’t wash away the success of his first eight outings with the Athletics.
In each of his first eight starts, Severino pitched into the sixth inning or later, posting a 3.62 ERA and averaging 18.6 outs per game.
The Athletics’ Sutter Health Park has been the second-friendliest offensive environment so far, on par with Coors Field in Colorado. Understandably, Severino’s struggles this year have come in that venue.
In three road starts, he has allowed just two runs over 19.0 innings of work.
Last year, Severino cashed this bet in both starts against the Giants. The current San Francisco lineup has a .138 BA and a .207 SLG against him in 67 plate appearances.
MLB prop picks made at 2:25 p.m. ET on 05/17/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.