Jordan Horrobin

Alec Burleson has been powering up for the St. Louis Cardinals lately, and I like his chances of going deep on Friday night.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Burleson is one of tonight’s two MLB home run picks, alongside Taylor Ward. Last night, Ward mashed his 21st home run of the season (tied for fifth in the American League).

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 11.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Burleson to hit a home run (+500)

Burleson only has 11 HRs this year, which isn’t a ton for an everyday player situated in the Nos. 3-5 spots in the lineup.

But there’s plenty to like about his matchup tonight against Braves starter Grant Holmes:

• Burleson is swinging a hot bat. In his past 21 games, he has six HRs and a .549 SLG.

• He’ll have a platoon advantage. Against right-handed pitchers this season, the left-hitting Burleson has a .308/.353/.493 slash line.

• Holmes’ strikeout prowess shouldn’t be too much of a factor. Holmes ranks in the 81st percentile or better in whiff rate and strikeout rate … but Burleson is in the 90th percentile in both categories on the hitting side, per Baseball Savant.

On the road, Holmes hasn’t been at his sharpest this season. He has a 4.46 ERA, with eight HRs allowed in 40.1 innings (compared to seven HRs allowed in 61.2 IP at home).

I’m confident in Burleson’s ability not to go down via the strikeout. And if he holds up in that regard, Holmes is likely to give him a crushable pitch to hit.

Holmes allows a 14th-percentile barrel rate (11.1%).

Key stat: Among 68 qualified pitchers, Holmes has the seventh-highest HR-to-fly-ball ratio in MLB (15.8%).

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Best HR predictions

Ward to hit a home run (+390): Ward went deep last night at Angel Stadium, and I’m eager to see if he can run it back.

The outfielder is strikeout-prone and doesn’t really hit for average, but that’s okay. His 84th-percentile barrel rate (13.6%), per Baseball Savant, indicates that a high rate of his batted balls are crushed.

Tonight, he’ll face Arizona starter Ryne Nelson (5-2, 3.39 ERA), who’s having a solid season on paper. But Nelson allows a lot of hard contact, which has my attention.

Nelson ranks in the 15th percentile in average exit velocity allowed (90.8 mph), and his opponent xBA (.259) far exceeds his actual opponent BA (.193).

Also, Ward’s home park is the fourth-friendliest HR venue for right-hitting players (17% more HRs than average).

MLB home run picks made at 10:10 a.m. ET on 07/11/2025.

In their final series before the Midsummer Classic, the Toronto Blue Jays are in Sacramento to face the Athletics.

Buoyed by a recent 10-game win streak, Toronto has been playing at a 116-win pace dating back to May 28. That includes a four-game sweep of the Athletics (May 29-June 1), who are tied for the third-worst record in MLB.

Check out our Blue Jays vs. Athletics preview for the July 11-13 series, highlighting the starting pitching matchups, betting trends and more.

Blue Jays vs. Athletics preview: The streak

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The impending all-star break isn’t coming at the best time for the Blue Jays, given that they’re currently the hottest club in MLB.

From June 29 through July 8, the Jays ripped off a 10-game win streak that marked their longest run of victories since 2015.

Five of those wins came against AL East foes (Red Sox, Yankees), and in the process, Toronto vaulted into the No. 1 spot in the division.

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During the win streak, the Jays posted a 132 wRC+ as a team. For context, that’s the same as Manny Machado’s season-long wRC+.

A lineup-wide heater like that isn’t sustainable, but it’s nice to know what Toronto is capable of when things are going well.

Starting pitcher matchups

July 11: RHP Max Scherzer (0-0, 4.76 ERA) vs. RHP Luis Severino (2-10, 5.30 ERA)

• A thumb injury put Scherzer on the shelf for most of the spring, and he’s been on a pretty tight leash since returning on June 25. In his three starts since then, Scherzer has averaged 75.3 pitches and completed no more than 5.0 innings.

• Severino probably hates being pencilled in for a home start. He’s 0-8 in 11 outings at Sutter Health Park, with a 7.04 ERA and an .829 opponent OPS.

July 12: RHP Kevin Gausman (6-6, 4.13 ERA) vs. LHP Jacob Lopez (2-5, 4.26 ERA)

• Gausman’s splitter is working wonders this season. He’s allowing a .161 opponent BA on the pitch, per Baseball Savant, while generating a 37.2% whiff rate. The A’s have the third-highest whiff rate vs. splitters this season (39.3%).

• Lopez allowed seven earned runs in just 1.2 innings vs. the Blue Jays on May 29. But maybe that was a wake-up call. Since then, the southpaw has a 3.34 ERA and a 12.1 K/9 over seven starts.

July 13: RHP Jose Berrios (5-3, 3.53 ERA) vs. LHP Jeffrey Springs (7-6, 3.92 ERA)

• Berrios spun a gem against the A’s in late May, tossing 6.0 innings of scoreless, two-hit ball. He has a 31.0% K rate and a .203 opponent BA against the Athletics’ current lineup (71 plate appearances).

• Like Lopez, Springs got shellacked by the Jays in late May (2.0 IP, six earned runs) but has been on a roll ever since. In his past seven outings, he has a 2.76 ERA while allowing no more than three earned runs in a game.

Who’s hot and who’s not

George Springer (OF): Springer set a Blue Jays record for most RBI on Canada Day (7), setting the tone for an epic month. In July, the veteran outfielder has a .412/.487/.882 slash line in eight starts. He has five home runs, 13 RBI and 10 runs in that span from the No. 2 spot in the lineup.

Ernie Clement (INF): This will be an interesting series for Clement, who’s slumping hard right now but should see action with a pair of lefties due up in the A’s rotation. Clement is batting .220 with zero extra-base hits in the past two weeks… but he has a 1.074 OPS vs. southpaws this year.

Max Muncy (INF): He’s the lesser-known Max Muncy in pro ball, but the rookie is making a name for himself these days. In the past two weeks, his 170 wRC+ ranks 30th in MLB among 183 qualified hitters. He’s also scored a run in seven of his past 10 games.

Severino (SP): The veteran entered June with a sub-4.00 ERA, but the wheels have completely fallen off. He has an 8.03 ERA and a .297 xBA in his past seven outings.

Blue Jays vs. Athletics preview: Betting trends

• Toronto has the 2nd-best run line record in MLB (55-38, 59.1%).

• The Athletics have the 8th-worst run line record at home (19-28, 40.4%).

• Overs are 48-38-8 in A’s home games (1st in MLB).

• Overs are 21-18-2 when the Blue Jays are favourites (6th in MLB).

• Springer has cashed his 1.5 total bases prop in 6 of 8 starts this month.

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is averaging 1.7 total bases since June 1. But he only has four HRs in 33 games over that span.

The New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners close the book on their season series on Thursday night at Yankee Stadium.

The pregame narrative: New York is 4-1 with a +16 run differential against Seattle this season, including a pair of comfortable wins the past two nights. Seattle should have the pitching advantage tonight, though, with Bryan Woo facing Marcus Stroman.

Check out my Mariners vs. Yankees prop bets for July 10, featuring Woo, Jasson Dominguez and Cal Raleigh.

Mariners vs. Yankees prop bets

Best Bet: Dominguez over 0.5 runs (+100)

After spending much of the season in the heart of the Yankees’ batting order, Dominguez has recently risen to the leadoff spot.

That’s exactly where you want to be for a runs prop — especially with how hot New York’s lineup is.

Over the past two weeks, the Yankees rank second in wRC+ (138) and slugging percentage (.504). They’ve also scored 6.2 runs per game in that span.

Dominguez has contributed plenty to the recent offensive surge. In his past 13 games (12 starts), the rookie-eligible outfielder has scored nine runs while posting a 1.041 OPS.

Getting on base is one thing, but Dominguez has a stellar cast behind him that can bring him around.

New York’s Nos. 2, 3 and 5 hitters — Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. — all rank in the top 20 in wRC+ over the past two weeks.

Although Dominguez is a switch-hitter, he fares much better from the left side. He’s got a .285/.361/.500 slash line against right-handed pitchers this year.

Key Stat: Dominguez has spent three of the past four games in the leadoff spot, and he’s scored four runs in those games.

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Woo over 5.5 Ks (-148): There’s a lot of juice on this prop, which is the reason it hasn’t risen to best bet territory.

But I do expect Woo to cover the line based on his recent strikeout success and his consistently robust workload.

• Woo has 6+ Ks in 5 of 6 starts since the beginning of June. He’s averaging 6.8 Ks per game in that span.

• On the season, Woo is 11-6 vs. this line.

• Woo has completed 6.0 innings or more in all 17 outings this season.

Over the past 30 days, the Yankees have the ninth-highest K rate in the majors (23.1%). And Woo has a 29.2 K% against New York’s active lineup (14 Ks in 48 plate appearances).

Raleigh under 0.5 runs (+102): Raleigh has been an exceptionally tough player to fade this season, but I want to give it a go tonight.

The switch-hitting catcher has finally found himself in a mini-slump, batting .159 over his past 13 games. Also, he’s 0-for-7 with four Ks vs. Stroman.

After a few rough outings to begin the season, Stroman hit the injured list. His results have been better in two starts since his return:

• June 29: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R
• July 4: 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 R

Raleigh likely won’t stay down for long, but this plus-money price has piqued my interest.

Mariners vs. Yankees prop bets made at 11:22 a.m. ET on 07/10/2025.

For Thursday’s MLB home run picks, I’m targeting a pair of hitters who excel against lefty pitching.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Jo Adell is finally making a name for himself several years after being a highly regarded prospect, and he’s been particularly hot in the past 20 games. Elsewhere, Agustin Ramirez can take sole possession of the rookie HR lead if he leaves the yard tonight.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 10.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Ramirez to hit a home run (+440)

If you haven’t been following the Marlins (and who could blame you for that?), you likely don’t know who Ramirez is. But I think he’s a real threat to go deep on Thursday.

The 23-year-old rookie, who was Baseball Prospectus’ No. 55 prospect entering the year, has a 113 OPS+ through 67 games. He’s a dead-pull hitter who should enjoy playing at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

GABP allows 22% more homers than average to right-hitting players, per Baseball Savant, and all 14 of Ramirez’s homers this year have been pulled into the left field seats.

Thursday’s pitching matchup should work in Ramirez’s favour, too. He’ll face left-hander Nick Lodolo, who has allowed 1.34 HR/9 (17th-most among 68 qualified pitchers).

Lodolo has allowed at least one HR in all six of his starts since the beginning of June.

Ramirez does his best work against southpaws, slugging .500 against them this season. He also has a .305/.339/.627 slash line in his past 15 games.

Key stat: Ramirez is tied for the MLB rookie lead in HRs (14).

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Best HR predictions

Adell to hit a home run (+360): Once upon a time, Adell was a top-10 draftee and a blue chip prospect.

Now he’s 26, in his sixth MLB season, and things are finally coming together.

The outfielder has an .819 OPS this season in 85 games and has been worth 1.1 bWAR. For context, he was worth a combined -0.6 bWAR through his first five years.

Adell is slugging .558 vs. left-handed pitchers, which definitely has my attention.

He’ll face LHP Patrick Corbin tonight at Angel Stadium, which is the fourth-friendliest HR venue for right-hitting players (17% more HRs than average).

Over his past 20 games, Adell has six homers and a .324/.414/.622 slash line.

MLB home run picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 07/10/2025.

In the final MLB game on Wednesday’s slate, the struggling Atlanta Braves visit the Athletics.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta is 2-10 in its past 12 games. The bats are cold, the rotation is depleted, and the vibes are on the floor. The Athletics won last night’s series opener, 10-1, thanks to some big-time power from Lawrence Butler.

Check out my Braves vs. Athletics predictions, featuring Austin Riley.

Braves vs. Athletics predictions

Parlay: Athletics +1.5 | Butler over 1.5 bases | Riley over 0.5 hits (+300)

Athletics +1.5 (-159): Atlanta starter Bryce Elder was an all-star two seasons ago. But much like the Braves as a team, his fortunes have taken a turn for the worse since then.

In 24 starts since the beginning of 2024, Elder has a 6.16 ERA and a .297/.359/.511 opponent slash line.

This season, the Braves are 5-9 in Elder’s outings, and 4-10 vs. a -1.5 run line.

Elder’s woes could be further amplified by how awful the Braves’ offence has been lately. Atlanta has scored one run or fewer in seven of its past 12 games.

The Athletics waxed the Braves in the opener, 10-1. Another outright win wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest, but I’ll take some cushion for this parlay.

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MLB SGP legs

Butler over 1.5 total bases (-110): The time to back Butler is when he’s at home against a right-handed pitcher.

That’ll be the situation tonight, and hopefully the outfielder can build on some very strong splits:

• vs. RHPs: .805 OPS, 122 wRC+
• Home games: .862 OPS, 132 wRC+

For context, Butler has a 73 wRC+ against left-handers and a 95 wRC+ on the road.

Butler homered twice last night and is now 9-for-25 (.360) with a .720 SLG in his past seven games. This is not a guy Elder will be eager to see in the batter’s box.

Riley over 0.5 hits (-315): This super-juiced prop has an important role to play in this SGP, lengthening the odds from +170 to +300. To me, that’s worth tossing it in.

Riley is 12-for-37 (.324) in his past nine games, cashing this bet seven times.

The right-hitting third baseman has reverse splits this year, meaning he hits righties better than lefties. Riley has a .276/.331/.442 slash line vs. RHPs.

Athletics right-hander Mitch Spence has coughed up 25 hits in 19.2 innings over his past four starts.

Braves vs. Athletics predictions made at 2:40 p.m. ET on 07/09/2025.

Riley Greene and Eugenio Suarez are Wednesday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Greene has been mashing right-handed pitching all season and draws a particularly compelling matchup tonight. As for Suarez, he’s wielding a dangerous bat in a homer-friendly ballpark.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 9.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Greene to hit a home run (+400)

Greene will start for the American League in the upcoming MLB All-Star Game, and that has everything to do with his ability to crush right-handed pitching.

Against righties, Greene is an elite power bat. Against lefties, he’s a sub-replacement player:

• vs. RHPs: .618 SLG, 168 wRC+
• vs. LHPs: .314 SLG, 78 wRC+

On Wednesday, Greene will face Zack Littell, a righty who has allowed plenty of long balls this season.

Among 67 qualified pitchers, Littell is third-worst in HR-to-fly-ball ratio (16.9%) and in HR/9 (1.95).

Greene hasn’t homered off Littell yet, but the contact quality has been excellent in their past matchups. The outfielder is 5-for-9 with a pair of doubles off Littell, logging a 98.2 mph average exit velocity and a .790 xSLG, per Baseball Savant.

Detroit’s Comerica Park is a bit cavernous and certainly not ideal for dingers. But Greene has homered eight times at home, and with this matchup, I think he can add to the total.

Key stat: Since June 13, Greene has a .297/.343/.659 slash line and nine HRs in 22 starts.

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Best HR predictions

Suarez to hit a home run (+480): Getting nearly 5-to-1 odds on a guy with 28 homers before the all-star break? Yeah, I’ll bite on that.

Suarez, who’s tied for fourth in MLB’s home run chase, has cashed this bet 11 times in his past 27 games. Not too shabby.

San Diego’s Petco Park has a reputation as a pitcher-friendly venue, but it’s actually a solid place to go yard.

According to Baseball Savant’s park factors, Petco allows 17% more homers to right-hitting players than the average stadium.

Padres starter Dylan Cease has allowed multiple HRs in back-to-back starts, and Suarez homered off him at Petco last season.

MLB home run picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 07/09/2025.