After the Toronto Blue Jays’ Canada Day game, there’s still plenty more MLB action on July 1.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Emerson Hancock and the Mariners face a slumping Royals lineup tonight, which gives the right-hander a solid opportunity to give his team some length. On the hitting side, neither Teoscar Hernandez nor Willson Contreras is riding high into a new month.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for July 1.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Hernandez under 0.5 runs (-143)
I really think the extra juice is worth it on this prop, as Hernandez’s productivity took a nosedive last month.
Entering June, the ex-Blue Jay had a .298/.324/.556 slash line. He mostly batted in the Nos. 3 and 4 spots, so he was always right in the heart of the action for a loaded Los Angeles Dodgers lineup.
In June, Hernandez had a .189/.243/.347 slash line in 25 games.
He now bats fifth when a right-hander is on the mound, which is only a marginal difference, but it does slide him further out of run-scoring territory.
White Sox righty Shane Smith got roughed in his past two home outings, but he’s been solid on the road. In seven starts as a visitor, the rookie has a 2.55 ERA and an 8.9 K/9.
Smith has allowed a .649 OPS to right-hitting players this year, which is better than league average (.704).
This bet is more about fading Hernandez as a heart-of-the-order guy who’s scuffling at the plate. But from the pitching side, Smith is competent enough to hold up his end of the bargain.
Key stat: Hernandez has gone under 0.5 runs in six straight games, as well as 14 of his past 22.
Best MLB picks
Contreras under 0.5 hits (+115): Just past the halfway point of the MLB season, Paul Skenes is a -335 favourite to win NL Cy Young. He’s just that nasty.
Contreras, who’s 0-for-7 with four strikeouts vs. Skenes, is well aware of this.
Skenes has held right-hitting players to a .158 BA this season, and I think Contreras is worth a fade at this plus-money price.
The St. Louis first baseman is 12-for-56 (.214) in his past 16 games, going hitless seven times in that span.
Contreras ranks in the bottom 30th percentile in chase rate and whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. I expect Skenes to have him guessing (and guessing wrong).
Hancock over 16.5 outs (-130): With an ice-cold opposing lineup and a taxed bullpen behind him, Hancock should be able to eat some innings tonight.
Let’s start with the Royals’ side of this, as Kansas City has gone into quite the rut on offence.
In their past nine games, the Royals are averaging 2.2 runs while posting a .199/.263/.289 slash line. No wonder they’re 1-8 in that span.
As for the Mariners, a slew of recent extra-innings games has pushed their relief corps to the limit. Three relievers have pitched in three of the past four days, while four others have pitched twice in that span.
Hancock’s 5.30 ERA in 14 outings looks bad. But a lot of the damage was concentrated in three rough starts.
All told, he’s allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of 14 starts — and he’s pitched into the sixth or later in 10 of 14. Under the circumstances, Seattle should be asking for 18-plus outs from him.
MLB prop picks made at 3:11 p.m. ET on 07/01/2025.
