Eric Lauer gets the ball for the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday afternoon as the team vies for an 11th consecutive victory.
The pregame narrative: A rain-shortened win on Tuesday night kept Toronto’s bullpen fresh, and it meant a three-game sweep is in play against the Chicago White Sox. With a win on Wednesday, Toronto would have its longest streak since 2015.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. White Sox for July 9, featuring Lauer and Bo Bichette.
Blue Jays picks vs. White Sox
Best Bet: Lauer over 4.5 Ks (-114)
My biggest concern with this pick is that the Blue Jays likely don’t need much length from Lauer.
The bullpen is in good shape, with five pitchers entering Tuesday on at least two days of rest. And Toronto is off tomorrow, with the all-star break (July 14-17) arriving shortly thereafter.
Still, I’m drawn to the over on this strikeouts prop because Chicago is an A+ fit for Lauer.
- The White Sox have the third-highest K rate in MLB vs. left-handed pitchers (26.5%). They also have the seventh-highest K rate overall (23.3%).
- Lauer’s two best pitches by whiff rate are his curveball and slider, per Baseball Savant. Chicago has the ninth-highest whiff rate on those pitches vs. LHPs (35.7%).
Since entering the rotation on a full-time basis last month, Lauer has pitched into the fifth inning or deeper in five consecutive starts.
He has at least four Ks in each of those outings, averaging 5.4 Ks overall in that span.
A five-inning start would be reasonable to expect from Lauer today. After all, the line on his outs prop is set at 15.5.
Given that Lauer has a 9.0 K/9 this season, he should clear this Ks prop with that type of workload in a highly favourable matchup.
Key stat: Over the past 30 days, the White Sox have the fourth-highest strikeout rate in MLB (24.2%).
Quick pick
Bichette under 1.5 total bases (-143): Fading a Blue Jays star amid the team’s hot streak isn’t a fun option.
But White Sox starter Adrian Houser has been excellent lately, and that has my attention.
- Houser, who made his season debut on May 20, has a 1.60 ERA and a .319 opponent SLG in eight starts.
- Right-hitting batters have a .183/.216/.215 slash line vs. Houser.
- Bichette is 2-for-10 with one strikeout and zero extra-base hits vs. Houser.
Bichette has cashed the under on his bases prop in seven of his past 11 starts, posting a .333 SLG in that span.
His 105 OPS+ on the season isn’t what you want from a cleanup hitter, even if Toronto’s lineup is getting the job done as a whole.
Blue Jays picks were made at 9:26 a.m. ET on 07/09/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.