Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

Canada Day Yankees vs. Blue Jays prop picks: Bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to stay hot, fade Kevin Gausman

Blue Jays picks

It’s Canada Day, and that means afternoon baseball for the Toronto Blue Jays in front of a jam-packed holiday crowd.

The pregame narrative: Max Fried (10-2, 1.92 ERA) faces Kevin Gausman (6-6, 4.21 ERA) for the second time this season. In the first go-round, on April 27, the New York Yankees cruised to an 11-2 victory at home.

Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks for July 1, featuring Gausman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks

Best Bet: Chisholm over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (+100)

Vibes were low for Chisholm at the end of April. He closed out the month batting .181 and hit the injured list with an oblique strain shortly thereafter.

But since his return at the start of June, things have been different. And by that, I mean much better.

Chisholm has homered in four of his past five games. Here’s what the infielder accomplished throughout the past month:

  • .318 BA
  • .614 SLG
  • 7 HR
  • 2.7 hits/runs/RBI per start
  • 2+ hits/runs/RBI in 16 of 23 starts

Chisholm strikes out a lot, but when he puts wood on the ball, the contact is usually elite.

According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 8th percentile in strikeout rate and the 95th percentile in barrel rate.

At 8.6 K/9, Gausman isn’t having a dominant strikeout season on the mound (more on that later). Chisholm is wielding a platoon advantage and a hot bat, which is an excellent combo to buy in on.

The left-hitting Chisholm is slugging .577 against right-handed pitchers this season (compared to a .321 SLG vs. lefties).

Key stat: Chisholm is 10-2 vs. this prop in his past 12 games.

Quick picks

Gausman under 6.5 Ks (-150): New York has the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the past 30 days, which makes this under feel a twinge risky.

But Gausman just hasn’t been a reliable strikeout force this season.

  • Under 6.5 Ks is 11-5 for Gausman this year. He’s averaging 5.6 Ks per outing.
  • Gausman has middling percentile rankings in whiff rate (57th percentile) and K rate (61st).

The Yankees have also really had Gausman’s number lately. Since the start of the 2024 season, he has allowed 25 runs in five starts (11.50 ERA) and has gone under 6.5 Ks four times.

Gausman does rank in the 80th percentile in chase rate … but the Yankees’ offence has the lowest chase rate in the majors (25.5%).

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+130): Guerrero went 0-for-3 against Fried earlier this year, but it’s difficult to back off this prop price for Toronto’s premier slugger right now.

In his past 21 games, Guerrero is 14-7 vs. this prop while posting a .312/.404/.558 slash line. That includes a 2-for-4 effort with a double and three RBI last night.

Fried is certainly an upper-tier lefty, and that context matters, but Vladdy has been a great bet against southpaws as a whole this season.

He ranks 12th among 161 qualified hitters in wRC+ vs. LHPs (174), which equates to a .982 OPS.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 07/01/2025.

Canada Day Yankees vs. Blue Jays prop picks: Bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to stay hot, fade Kevin Gausman

Blue Jays picks

It’s Canada Day, and that means afternoon baseball for the Toronto Blue Jays in front of a jam-packed holiday crowd.

The pregame narrative: Max Fried (10-2, 1.92 ERA) faces Kevin Gausman (6-6, 4.21 ERA) for the second time this season. In the first go-round, on April 27, the New York Yankees cruised to an 11-2 victory at home.

Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks for July 1, featuring Gausman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks

Best Bet: Chisholm over 1.5 total bases (+116)

Vibes were low for Chisholm at the end of April. He closed out the month batting .181 and hit the injured list with an oblique strain shortly thereafter.

But since his return at the start of June, things have been different. And by that, I mean much better.

Chisholm has homered in four of his past five games. Here’s what the infielder accomplished throughout the past month:

  • .318 BA
  • .614 SLG
  • 7 HR
  • 2.3 bases/start
  • 2+ bases in 14 of 23 starts

Chisholm strikes out a lot, but when he puts wood on the ball, the contact is usually elite.

According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 8th percentile in strikeout rate and the 95th percentile in barrel rate.

At 8.6 K/9, Gausman isn’t having a dominant strikeout season on the mound (more on that later). Chisholm is wielding a platoon advantage and a hot bat, which is an excellent combo to buy in on.

The left-hitting Chisholm is slugging .577 against right-handed pitchers this season (compared to a .321 SLG vs. lefties).

Key stat: Chisholm is 10-4 vs. this prop in his past 14 games.

Embed: #115403

Quick picks

Gausman under 6.5 Ks (-129): New York has the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the past 30 days, which makes this under feel a twinge risky.

But Gausman just hasn’t been a reliable strikeout force this season.

  • Under 6.5 Ks is 11-5 for Gausman this year. He’s averaging 5.6 Ks per outing.
  • Gausman has middling percentile rankings in whiff rate (57th percentile) and K rate (61st).

The Yankees have also really had Gausman’s number lately. Since the start of the 2024 season, he has allowed 25 runs in five starts (11.50 ERA) and has gone under 6.5 Ks four times.

Gausman does rank in the 80th percentile in chase rate … but the Yankees’ offence has the lowest chase rate in the majors (25.5%).

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+117): Guerrero went 0-for-3 against Fried earlier this year, but it’s difficult to back off this prop price for Toronto’s premier slugger right now.

In his past 21 games, Guerrero is 14-7 vs. this prop while posting a .312/.404/.558 slash line. That includes a 2-for-4 effort with a double and three RBI last night.

Fried is certainly an upper-tier lefty, and that context matters, but Vladdy has been a great bet against southpaws as a whole this season.

He ranks 12th among 161 qualified hitters in wRC+ vs. LHPs (174), which equates to a .982 OPS.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 07/01/2025.

Giants vs. Diamondbacks SGP predictions June 30: Bet on Arizona to cover F5 spread, Adames to get a hit

Giants vs. Diamondbacks predictions

Logan Webb gets the ball for the San Francisco Giants on Monday night as they open a four-game set against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The pregame narrative: Webb has recorded a quality start (6.0 or more innings, three or fewer earned runs) in nine of his past 10 games. His Giants are modest road favourites over the Diamondbacks, who have lost four games in a row.

Check out my Giants vs. Diamondbacks predictions, including props on Willy Adames and Randal Grichuk in a +285 SGP.

Giants vs. Diamondbacks predictions

Parlay: Diamondbacks +1.5 F5 | Adames 1+ hits | Grichuk under 1.5 bases (+285)

Diamondbacks +1.5 – first 5 innings (-205): Ryne Nelson is back in the Diamondbacks’ rotation after starting the year as a bulk reliever. And the results have been quite encouraging.

Part of the promotion was due to Corbin Burnes’ season-ending elbow injury, but Nelson seems deserving of the spot now, too.

In seven games (six starts) since May 20, he has a 2.62 ERA and a .174 opponent batting average. And that’s with one major blowup mixed in (seven runs in 3.0 innings vs. the Reds on June 7).

In five of six starts since late May, Nelson has allowed either one or zero runs.

In other words, he was covering this +1.5 first-five run line without any assistance from the Diamondbacks’ offence.

But remember, Arizona does have a strong offence that can pick up the slack if needed. The D-backs rank fourth in F5 runs per game (2.98), per Team Rankings.

Embed: #115379

MLB SGP legs

Adames over 0.5 hits (-195): It’s been a very trying year for Adames, and there’s no way I’d lay this juice in a straight wager on him to get a hit.

But it takes this SGP from +123 to +285, so I’m happy to buy in.

Adames is 3-for-4 against Nelson, and he’s finally putting together some solid overall numbers lately.

Over his past 18 games, the shortstop is batting .274 with an .844 OPS. His .275 xBA in that span, as measured by Baseball Savant, legitimizes Adames’ recent results.

Adames (.209 BA) is barely over the Mendoza line for the season, but at least things are looking up.

Also, the right-handed Nelson has reverse splits, meaning that right-hitting players — like Adames — have performed much better against him than left-hitting players (.718 OPS vs. .505 OPS).

Grichuk under 1.5 total bases (-210): Grichuk isn’t an everyday player at this point in his career, but if he’s in the lineup tonight, I’ll gladly fade him.

  • The 33-year-old journeyman has posted career lows in batting average (.238) and slugging percentage (.400) this season.
  • In June, Grichuk has a .180/.214/.240 slash line with 11 strikeouts and just two extra-base hits.
  • Grichuk is 1-for-12 with four Ks vs. Webb.

Webb (7-5, 2.52 ERA) makes life tough on most hitters he faces. There’s nothing that suggests Grichuk will have success in this matchup tonight.

Giants vs. Dodgers predictions made at 1:53 p.m. ET on 06/30/2025.

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MLB home run picks June 30: Look for Yandy Diaz, Willson Contreras to go deep

MLB home run picks

Yandy Diaz is playing out of this world right now, and he’s my top MLB home run prop pick for Monday night.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Diaz often struggles to hit the ball into the air, but against a fly-ball pitcher tonight, he should be able to do some damage. Elsewhere, Willson Contreras looks to capitalize on a platoon advantage.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 30.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Diaz to hit a home run (+333)

When it comes to generating hard contact, Diaz is in MLB’s elite tier.

In every season since 2022, Diaz has ranked in the 89th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and xBA, per Baseball Savant.

But his power numbers are often less explosive than you’d expect, given that Diaz hits a ton of grounders. His career average launch angle (5.1 degrees) is less than half of MLB’s average (12.4 degrees).

With that in mind, it might help Diaz to face a pitcher who serves up a lot of fly balls.

Enter A’s starter Jacob Lopez, who has the lowest ground-ball rate in the league (20.2%) among 185 pitchers with 40-plus innings.

Ideally, Lopez’s tendencies as a fly-ball pitcher can counteract Diaz’s propensity to generate a low launch angle. Add in the power Diaz wields, and we have a nice recipe for a home run.

Plus, Monday’s game is being played at homer-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field.

At the Rays’ temporary home, right-hitting players are hitting 31% more HRs than average, per Baseball Savant’s park factors data.

Key stat: Diaz has an otherworldly .449/.511/.718 slash line over his past 19 games, with five HRs in that span.

Best HR predictions

Contreras to hit a home run (+295): Contreras reached base and scored in all three weekend series games against the Guardians, continuing a strong run of production this month.

In his past 25 games, the St. Louis catcher is slugging .527 with 14 extra-base hits (five HRs).

Contreras will face left-hander Andrew Heaney, who has coughed up nine homers in his past six starts (including three HRs last time out).

The platoon advantage is part of the draw for this pick, as Contreras has a .500 SLG and a .239 ISO vs. lefties this season. For context, the MLB average for ISO is .143.

MLB home run picks made at 12:08 p.m. ET on 06/30/2025.

Best MLB prop bets June 30: Bobby Witt Jr. vies to extend hot streak

MLB prop bets

I’ve got a pair of MLB prop targets for Monday night’s action.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Bobby Witt Jr. has been flashing tons of power at the plate in the latter half of this month, and he’s in a good position to carry this hot streak into July. Elsewhere, Patrick Corbin should be tasked with eating a decent sum of innings.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 30.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Witt over 1.5 total bases (+100)

Witt is on a hot streak right now, and I’m digging his matchup tonight against Seattle’s George Kirby.

  • Over his past 13 games, the shortstop has a .333/.357/.630 slash line. In that span, 10 of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases.
  • Witt has just three walks in his past 22 games, which tells you he’s going up there to hit. On the season, his 7.1% walk rate ranks in MLB’s 35th percentile, per Baseball Savant.

Kirby is the right kind of pitcher for a free swinger to face.

The right-hander has a low walk rate (5.8%, 84th percentile), and he allows plenty of hard contact. He ranks in the 35th percentile or worse in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.

Witt is 4-for-9 with two doubles vs. Kirby. And as MLB’s doubles leader (29), I know he’s quite capable of cashing this bet on one swing.

Key stat: Witt is 10-3 vs. this prop in his past 13 games, averaging 2.6 bases per game over that time.

Best MLB picks

Corbin over 16.5 outs (-118): Corbin needs to get into meat shield mode to give his severely depleted bullpen a breather.

The Texas Rangers went to extras in all three games of their weekend series, playing 34 total innings from Friday through Sunday.

As a result, six of their eight relievers have worked two of the past three days. And another one is likely unavailable after throwing 39 pitches on Sunday.

Just because it’d be nice to get length out of Corbin doesn’t mean it’ll happen. But I expect his leash to be longer than usual under these circumstances.

Corbin is 4-6 vs. this prop since the start of May, but he’s averaging a hearty 17.2 outs/game in that time. He has pitched into the sixth inning or deeper in nine of his past 10 starts.

Burns over 6.5 Ks (+123): Burns, the No. 2 overall pick in last year’s draft, had an eventful MLB debut last week that flashed plenty of promise.

In 5.0 innings, Burns allowed three runs on six hits while striking out eight. The righty’s fastball ticked up to 100.1 mph, and he garnered six whiffs on his slider (40.0% whiff rate).

It’s debatable who has the upper hand when a lineup is facing a pitcher for the first time, but I think the edge goes to the pitcher. The matchup itself is advantageous, too.

Boston has the third-highest strikeout rate in MLB (24.1%). Over the past two weeks, the Red Sox’s K rate is up to 26.3%.

MLB prop picks made at 11:41 a.m. ET on 06/30/2025.

MLB home run picks June 30: Look for Yandy Diaz, Willson Contreras to go deep

MLB home run picks

Yandy Diaz is playing out of this world right now, and he’s my top MLB home run prop pick for Monday night.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Diaz often struggles to hit the ball into the air, but against a fly-ball pitcher tonight, he should be able to do some damage. Elsewhere, Willson Contreras looks to capitalize on a platoon advantage.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 30.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Diaz to hit a home run (+390)

When it comes to generating hard contact, Diaz is in MLB’s elite tier.

In every season since 2022, Diaz has ranked in the 89th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and xBA, per Baseball Savant.

But his power numbers are often less explosive than you’d expect, given that Diaz hits a ton of grounders. His career average launch angle (5.1 degrees) is less than half of MLB’s average (12.4 degrees).

With that in mind, it might help Diaz to face a pitcher who serves up a lot of fly balls.

Enter A’s starter Jacob Lopez, who has the lowest ground-ball rate in the league (20.2%) among 185 pitchers with 40-plus innings.

Ideally, Lopez’s tendencies as a fly-ball pitcher can counteract Diaz’s propensity to generate a low launch angle. Add in the power Diaz wields, and we have a nice recipe for a home run.

Plus, Monday’s game is being played at homer-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field.

At the Rays’ temporary home, right-hitting players are hitting 31% more HRs than average, per Baseball Savant’s park factors data.

Key stat: Diaz has an otherworldly .449/.511/.718 slash line over his past 19 games, with five HRs in that span.

Embed: #115371

Best HR predictions

Contreras to hit a home run (+400): Contreras reached base and scored in all three weekend series games against the Guardians, continuing a strong run of production this month.

In his past 25 games, the St. Louis catcher is slugging .527 with 14 extra-base hits (five HRs).

Contreras will face left-hander Andrew Heaney, who has coughed up nine homers in his past six starts (including three HRs last time out).

The platoon advantage is part of the draw for this pick, as Contreras has a .500 SLG and a .239 ISO vs. lefties this season. For context, the MLB average for ISO is .143.

MLB home run picks made at 11:38 a.m. ET on 06/30/2025.

Best MLB prop bets June 30: Burns looks to build off strong debut, Witt vies to extend hot streak

MLB prop bets

Chase Burns makes his second MLB start on Monday, and I’m buying in on his prop market at plus money.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Burns racked up a bunch of strikeouts in his debut, and he draws a stellar matchup to do that again tonight. Elsewhere, Bobby Witt Jr. looks to stay hot while Patrick Corbin should be tasked with eating a decent sum of innings.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 30.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Witt over 1.5 total bases (-106)

Witt is on a hot streak right now, and I’m digging his matchup tonight against Seattle’s George Kirby.

  • Over his past 13 games, the shortstop has a .333/.357/.630 slash line. In that span, 10 of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases.
  • Witt has just three walks in his past 22 games, which tells you he’s going up there to hit. On the season, his 7.1% walk rate ranks in MLB’s 35th percentile, per Baseball Savant.

Kirby is the right kind of pitcher for a free swinger to face.

The right-hander has a low walk rate (5.8%, 84th percentile), and he allows plenty of hard contact. He ranks in the 35th percentile or worse in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.

Witt is 4-for-9 with two doubles vs. Kirby. And as MLB’s doubles leader (29), I know he’s quite capable of cashing this bet on one swing.

Key stat: Witt is 10-3 vs. this prop in his past 13 games, averaging 2.6 bases per game over that time.

Embed: #115366

Best MLB picks

Corbin over 16.5 outs (-110): Corbin needs to get into meat shield mode to give his severely depleted bullpen a breather.

The Texas Rangers went to extras in all three games of their weekend series, playing 34 total innings from Friday through Sunday.

As a result, six of their eight relievers have worked two of the past three days. And another one is likely unavailable after throwing 39 pitches on Sunday.

Just because it’d be nice to get length out of Corbin doesn’t mean it’ll happen. But I expect his leash to be longer than usual under these circumstances.

Corbin is 4-6 vs. this prop since the start of May, but he’s averaging a hearty 17.2 outs/game in that time. He has pitched into the sixth inning or deeper in nine of his past 10 starts.

Burns over 6.5 Ks (+123): Burns, the No. 2 overall pick in last year’s draft, had an eventful MLB debut last week that flashed plenty of promise.

In 5.0 innings, Burns allowed three runs on six hits while striking out eight. The righty’s fastball ticked up to 100.1 mph, and he garnered six whiffs on his slider (40.0% whiff rate).

It’s debatable who has the upper hand when a lineup is facing a pitcher for the first time, but I think the edge goes to the pitcher. The matchup itself is advantageous, too.

Boston has the third-highest strikeout rate in MLB (24.1%). Over the past two weeks, the Red Sox’s K rate is up to 26.3%.

MLB prop picks made at 9:41 a.m. ET on 06/30/2025.

Nationals vs. Angels SGP predictions June 28: Fade Josh Bell, look for Mike Soroka to shine

Nationals vs. Angels predictions

In Saturday’s only late-night MLB showdown, the Los Angeles Angels host the Washington Nationals in SoCal.

The pregame narrative: Mike Soroka hit a strikeout milestone last time out and will look to continue mowing down hitters in a Grade-A matchup. Washington is a slight road underdog after winning 15-9 in L.A. last night.

Check out my Nationals vs. Angels predictions, with a +275 parlay featuring CJ Abrams and Josh Bell.

Nationals vs. Angels predictions

Parlay: Soroka over 5.5 Ks | Abrams 1+ hits | Bell under 1.5 bases (+275)

Soroka over 5.5 strikeouts (-148): Soroka doesn’t have the nastiest stuff out there, but he’s trending up ahead of what should be a very promising matchup in the strikeout department.

  • In four starts this month, he has 31 Ks and has cashed this bet three times (he had five Ks in the one start that went under).
  • The Angels have the second-highest K rate in the majors (26.6%).

The Calgary native just set a career high with 10 strikeouts last time out — after matching his previous career high in Ks, with nine, in his previous start.

In what has been an injury-plagued career, it’s nice to see Soroka find some solid ground.

His 5.06 ERA is nothing to write home about, but he’s at least giving the Nationals some length. Dating back to mid-May, he has worked into (or through) the sixth inning in seven straight outings.

Embed: #115316

MLB SGP legs

Abrams 1+ hits (-295): Coming off a three-hit night in the series opener, this is understandably the lightest ask of my SGP legs on Saturday.

  • Abrams has 1+ hits in 46 of 68 (67.6%) starts this season.
  • Over his past 17 games, he’s 14-3 vs. this prop while posting a .366/.444/.563 slash line.

Abrams is the Nationals’ leadoff hitter, so he’ll have as many plate appearances as anyone in Washington’s lineup tonight.

He’s the quintessential leadoff man, with excellent speed (17 steals, t-12th in MLB) and contact (.290 xBA, 87th percentile).

Bell under 1.5 total bases (-167): Bell’s batting average has ticked up slightly this month, but his productivity level isn’t moving in the right direction.

  • 2025 season: .194/.282/.355, 80 wRC+, 10.3% barrel rate
  • June 2025: .219/.275/.342, 72 wRC+, 9.0% barrel rate

The switch-hitting Bell is typically stronger from the left side, but Angels starter Kyle Hendricks is tougher on left-hitting players. So any perceived advantage there might be zapped.

Hendricks has held lefty hitters to a .370 SLG this season.

Also, Bell is just 4-for-25 (.160) against Hendricks with only one extra-base hit.

Bell has gone under 1.5 bases in 14 of 20 starts this month and is averaging 1.3 bases/game.

Nationals vs. Angels predictions made at 3:15 p.m. ET on 06/28/2025.

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MLB home run picks June 28: Look for Cowser, Lowe to make noise in Rays vs. Orioles

MLB home run picks

Both of my MLB home run picks on Saturday come from the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles matchup.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Zach Eflin and Zack Littell are on the mound today, and though they can’t agree on name spelling, they do share the same trait of coughing up homers in droves. Both are worth targeting in this prop market.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 28, featuring Colton Cowser and Brandon Lowe.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Cowser to hit a home run (+300)

A lot of the Orioles’ promising young hitters have underperformed expectations this season, but Cowser isn’t among them.

The 25-year-old outfielder is slugging .530 for Baltimore. Unfortunately, due to injury, he’s only played 23 games.

In small spurts, though, he’s really put a charge into the ball. His 12.7% barrel rate would be right around the 80th percentile if he was a qualified hitter, per Baseball Savant.

Cowser bats from the left side, and as you’d expect, he does most of his damage against right-handed pitchers. He has a .651 SLG in 63 at-bats vs. RHPs this season.

Among 121 pitchers with 60-plus innings, Tampa right-hander Zack Littell has the fourth-highest HR/9 (2.03) in the majors.

Littell has allowed 11 HRs in just his past four road starts.

He also has one of the lowest walk rates in MLB (2.8%, 99th percentile), along with a very low strikeout rate (16.9%, 14th percentile), so Cowser should have opportunities to barrel something up.

Key stat: Cowser is 17-for-63 (.270) vs. RHPs this season, and 12 of those 17 hits went for extra bases.

Best HR predictions

Lowe to hit a home run (+350): Eflin is just as homer-friendly of a pitcher as Littell, which makes a left bat like Lowe worth a look on Saturday.

In the aforementioned data set of 121 pitchers with 60-plus innings, Eflin has the second-highest HR/9 (2.21).

He also has a very low walk rate (4.2%, 96th percentile) and has allowed a ton of homers recently (13 HRs in his past seven starts).

Now let’s talk about Lowe, who is slugging .539 vs. RHPs this season and has homered in back-to-back games.

Lowe is currently on a 14-game hitting streak in which he has a .404/.433/.649 slash line. I love his opportunity to do some big-time damage against a mistake-prone pitcher.

MLB home run picks made at 1:48 p.m. ET on 06/28/2025.

MLB home run picks June 28: Look for Cowser, Lowe to make noise in Rays vs. Orioles

MLB home run picks

Both of my MLB home run picks on Saturday come from the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles matchup.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Zach Eflin and Zack Littell are on the mound today, and though they can’t agree on name spelling, they do share the same trait of coughing up homers in droves. Both are worth targeting in this prop market.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 28, featuring Colton Cowser and Brandon Lowe.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Cowser to hit a home run (+390)

A lot of the Orioles’ promising young hitters have underperformed expectations this season, but Cowser isn’t among them.

The 25-year-old outfielder is slugging .530 for Baltimore. Unfortunately, due to injury, he’s only played 23 games.

In small spurts, though, he’s really put a charge into the ball. His 12.7% barrel rate would be right around the 80th percentile if he was a qualified hitter, per Baseball Savant.

Cowser bats from the left side, and as you’d expect, he does most of his damage against right-handed pitchers. He has a .651 SLG in 63 at-bats vs. RHPs this season.

Among 121 pitchers with 60-plus innings, Tampa right-hander Zack Littell has the fourth-highest HR/9 (2.03) in the majors.

Littell has allowed 11 HRs in just his past four road starts.

He also has one of the lowest walk rates in MLB (2.8%, 99th percentile), along with a very low strikeout rate (16.9%, 14th percentile), so Cowser should have opportunities to barrel something up.

Key stat: Cowser is 17-for-63 (.270) vs. RHPs this season, and 12 of those 17 hits went for extra bases.

Embed: #115307

Best HR predictions

Lowe to hit a home run (+410): Eflin is just as homer-friendly of a pitcher as Littell, which makes a left bat like Lowe worth a look on Saturday.

In the aforementioned data set of 121 pitchers with 60-plus innings, Eflin has the second-highest HR/9 (2.21).

He also has a very low walk rate (4.2%, 96th percentile) and has allowed a ton of homers recently (13 HRs in his past seven starts).

Now let’s talk about Lowe, who is slugging .539 vs. RHPs this season and has homered in back-to-back games.

Lowe is currently on a 14-game hitting streak in which he has a .404/.433/.649 slash line. I love his opportunity to do some big-time damage against a mistake-prone pitcher.

MLB home run picks made at 1:08 p.m. ET on 06/28/2025.