Jordan Horrobin

There are only a few night games on Saturday, and I’m drawing from one of them for one of my top MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Though he’s been slumping this month, Marcell Ozuna has demonstrated elite plate discipline this year that allows him to get on base at a high rate. Ozuna and the Braves face Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo, whose recent outings have been a rollercoaster ride.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 28, featuring Cal Raleigh and Jesus Sanchez.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Raleigh over 1.5 total bases (+110)

When I see Raleigh getting plus-money odds to go over 1.5 total bases, my interest is automatically piqued.

Amid a spectacular year in which he leads MLB in home runs (32) and RBI (69), Raleigh is a serious threat to cash this prop on a nightly basis.

• As a switch-hitter, he never has a platoon disadvantage. Raleigh is slugging is north of .600 from both sides of the plate.

• Hard contact comes at a high clip for Raleigh. He ranks in the 98th percentile for barrel rate (20.0%) and the 97th percentile for xSLG (.583), per Baseball Savant.

• Raleigh is 15-10 vs. this prop in his past 25 games, posting a 1.164 OPS in that span.

On Saturday, he’ll face struggling right-hander Kumar Rocker, who has a 6.68 ERA in eight starts.

Rocker ranks in the fourth percentile or worse in xBA (.306), xERA (5.75), hard-hit rate (49.6%) and average exit velocity (91.9 mph). This is a pitcher Raleigh should be able to take advantage of.

And we’ve seen it before, as Raleigh went 2-for-3 with a double in an April game that Rocker started against the Mariners.

Key stat: On the season, Raleigh is averaging 2.4 bases/game in 79 starts.

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Best MLB picks

Sanchez over 0.5 runs (+120): The Miami Marlins’ offence has been cooking so far on its NL West road trip, scoring 33 runs in four games. I think that kind of outburst can continue against Brandon Pfaadt.

Arizona’s starter has allowed 28 runs on 39 hits over his past 29.2 innings, which equates to an 8.49 ERA. Woof.

Sanchez, a left-hitting outfielder, has a .783 OPS in his career against right-handed pitchers.

And lefties have an .861 OPS off Pfaadt this year, so this matchup definitely swings in Sanchez’s favour.

From the No. 2 spot in the Marlins’ lineup, Sanchez should be right in the middle of the offensive action. He has scored 17 runs in his past 22 starts.

Ozuna over 0.5 runs (+128): Ozuna still wields a power bat in his age-34 season, but he also knows a thing or two about drawing a walk.

The designated hitter has a 16.9% walk rate, which ranks in the 100th percentile.

Ozuna sees left-handed pitching particularly well, evidenced by his .426 on-base percentage vs. LHPs this season.

Philadelphia’s Luzardo has allowed 15 runs in his past three road starts, and he’s someone Ozuna has thrived against in the past.

Ozuna is 5-for-13 in this head-to-head matchup with a home run, a double and a walk.

MLB prop picks made at 11:09 a.m. ET on 06/28/2025.

After blanking the Boston Red Sox last night, the Toronto Blue Jays are in position for a series win on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Chris Bassitt gets the ball for the Blue Jays, looking to make another deep start and continue a strong month of production. Toronto is 6-2 vs. Boston this season.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for June 28, featuring Bassitt and Bo Bichette.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best Bet: Bassitt over 17.5 outs (-130)

The Boston Red Sox sure could use a guy like Rafael Devers in their lineup.

Since trading away its top slugger on June 15, look at where Boston ranks among MLB’s 30 teams in some key offensive categories:

• 30th in wRC+ (52)
• 30th in BA (.187)
• 29th in strikeout rate (28.9%)
• 29th in SLG (.316)
• 25th in walk rate (7.1%)

Jose Berrios carved up the Red Sox last night, tossing 7.0 scoreless innings while striking out eight. Now it’s Bassitt’s turn.

Bassitt has pitched into the fifth inning or deeper in all 16 of his starts. He’s 8-8 vs. this prop but has come within two outs of cashing in five other games.

That includes an April 10 matchup against the Red Sox, in which Bassitt allowed just one run over 5.2 innings.

He’d only thrown 86 pitches when he was pulled, and he got the hook because there were runners on base in a scoreless game.

With an 89th-percentile walk rate, Bassitt is quite capable of working efficiently. He’s facing a squad that’s down in the dumps, which makes it a great time to back him to succeed.

Key stat: Bassitt has gone over 17.5 outs in all four starts this month, posting a 3.12 ERA in that span.

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Quick pick

Bichette over 0.5 runs (-120): Despite collecting multiple hits last night, Bichette didn’t score in Toronto’s 9-0 win.

But as the leadoff man for the Jays, he should be in a great spot to score on Saturday.

Bichette is 7-for-17 with a home run, two doubles and a walk (1.150 SLG) against Boston starter Lucas Giolito.

And as a whole, the Blue Jays have a .515 SLG vs. the Red Sox starter in 97 at-bats. So as long as Bichette gets on, I like his chances of coming around.

Giolito has a .299 opponent xBA, which ranks in MLB’s fourth percentile, per Baseball Savant. And his xERA (5.54) ranks in the sixth percentile.

Blue Jays picks made at 10:01 a.m. ET on 06/28/2025.

Bobby Witt Jr. and Mike Yastrzemski are my MLB home run picks for Thursday afternoon.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Neither player is in a particularly HR-friendly venue, but there are other factors that have my attention. Yastrzemski has the platoon advantage against a struggling pitcher, while Witt is looking to build on an emerging hot streak.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 26.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Witt to hit a home run (+340)

Witt is more of a gap-to-gap power guy rather than a home run hitter, but I think he’s in a decent spot to come through on Thursday.

There’s a solid breeze blowing out to left field at Kauffman Stadium, clocked at 12-14 mph, per Swish Analytics.

All but one of Witt’s 10 homers this season were hit to the pull side (i.e., left field), so that wind should help.

Ironically, the lone opposite-field HR for Witt this season came against today’s opposing pitcher, Shane Baz.

Baz is no stranger to giving up hard contact. He ranks in the 40th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, barrel rate and xERA.

Witt tends to struggle most against sliders from right-handed pitchers. But Baz’s struggles with his slider against right-hitting players is even worse.

Righties are 9-for-21 (.429) with six home runs off Baz’s slider. Ideally, he’ll turn Witt’s weakness into a strength.

Witt is MLB’s doubles leader (27), but hopefully today’s windy conditions can push an extra-base knock over the wall.

Key stat: Witt has a .333/.368/.639 slash line in his past nine games, with a pair of HRs in that span.

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Best HR predictions

Yastrzemski to hit a home run (+510): Miami’s Janson Junk is a nice pitcher to target for home run props, even if Oracle Park isn’t a HR-friendly venue.

Among 363 qualified pitchers, Junk has allowed the third-highest average exit velocity (92.9 mph) and the second-highest hard-hit rate (53.7%).

Batting from the left side, Yastrzemski will have the platoon advantage against the right-handed Junk. Yastrzemski has an .811 OPS vs. RHPs in his career, while Junk has allowed an .886 OPS to LHHs.

Over his past 14 games, Yastrzemski has a .340/.429/.553 slash line and a pair of home runs.

MLB home run picks made at 1:08 p.m. ET on 06/25/2025.

There’s an onslaught of afternoon baseball on Thursday, and three of my four MLB prop bets come from the earlier action.

Today’s MLB props narrative: The Los Angeles Dodgers have a juicy matchup against a left-hander in a hitter-friendly park, which makes Tommy Edman an enticing player to back. Elsewhere, Cristopher Sanchez will be tasked with navigating a Houston Astros lineup that has arguably been the best in MLB against left-handed pitching.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 26, featuring predictions on Pete Crow-Armstrong and Grant Holmes.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Edman over 0.5 runs (-137)

Dating back to last season, the Dodgers have scored 43 runs in their past six games at Coors Field.

This is an offence I want a piece of on Thursday, but it’s difficult to buy in on any of the big names at a playable price.

Enter Edman, who’s one of the guys tasked with rolling over the lineup from the No. 8 or 9 spot. If he gets on base, I at least know that the trio of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman isn’t far behind.

Edman’s overall numbers this year aren’t amazing, but his 104 OPS+ indicates that he’s been just on the right side of league average.

And in his past 15 games, he has a .345 OBP. That’s a solid clip given how many dangerous bats will follow.

Ohtani, Freeman and Betts are a combined 13-for-32 (.406) with three home runs, a triple and two doubles vs. Colorado starter Austin Gomber.

Pitching at Coors Field is a trying task for Gomber. In 228.0 innings at home since 2022, Gomber has allowed a .306/.345/.545 slash line.

L.A. should have a big day offensively, and I expect Edman to be part of that.

Key stat: Edman, a switch-hitter, has an .820 OPS in his career against lefties.

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Best MLB picks

Parlay: Sanchez over 3.5 Ks, under 18.5 outs (+117): I think this is a reasonable way to thread the needle on Sanchez, whose strikeout floor should be high enough to cash this ticket.

• Sanchez has 4+ Ks in 13 of 15 starts.

• He has gone under 18.5 outs in 10 of 15 starts and is averaging 17.5 outs/start.

The southpaw has gone over 18.5 outs in three straight games, so this might not be the best time to fade him in that regard. But now he’ll face a Houston Astros lineup that crushes lefties.

Against LHPs, the Astros lead the league in SLG (.468) and wRC+ (127).

Crow-Armstrong over 1.5 total bases (+123): Crow-Armstrong draws a lot of his value from his glove, but he has plenty of pop in his bat, too.

The all-star-to-be ranks in the 91st percentile in xSLG (.535), per Baseball Savant.

He’s also in the 97th percentile in sprint speed, which means stretching a single into a double — or beating out an infield hit — is in play.

PCA is 14-10 vs. this prop market in his past 24 games, posting an .897 OPS in that span.

The left-hitting centre fielder will have the platoon advantage against St. Louis righty Andre Pallante, too. Crow-Armstrong has a .482 SLG in his career vs. RHPs (compared to a .376 SLG vs. LHPs).

Braves vs. Mets prop bet

Holmes over 5.5 Ks (-136): Holmes is the definition of a late bloomer, tearing it up as a 29-year-old in his second MLB season.

The 2014 first-round draftee has a 3.71 ERA and a 10.3 K/9 for the Braves, but he’s been especially effective since the start of May:

• Before May 1: 4.50 ERA, 8.4 K/9
• Since May 1: 3.32 ERA, 11.2 K/9

Holmes has had issues with walks, but he’s facing an impatient New York Mets squad tonight.

Over the past month, New York has the ninth-highest strikeout rate and the 10th-lowest walk rate in MLB.

Holmes has worked into the sixth inning or later in 12 of his past 13 starts. With that in mind, clearing a 5.5-strikeout line should be well within reach.

MLB prop picks made at 11:03 a.m. ET on 06/26/2025.

In true getaway day fashion, nearly all of Thursday’s MLB games take place in the afternoon.

Today’s MLB narrative: The lone night game is the series finale between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets. Atlanta is 5-1 vs. New York this month, but the team is still five games under .500 right now. Some notable starters from earlier in the day include Cristopher Sanchez, Shota Imanaga and Clayton Kershaw.

Check out the latest MLB odds for June 26 below.

MLB odds and betting insights

• Imanaga (3-2) is back for the Cubs after missing the better part of two months with a hamstring strain. In three rehab starts this month, the left-hander struck out 16 batters over 10.1 scoreless innings. Last season, Chicago won both of his starts against St. Louis.

• Tampa Bay has been the best road team in MLB this year (18-12), which might make sense given that pretty much every game is a road game for the Rays this year. Kansas City, looking to avoid a three-game sweep today, faces Tampa starter Shane Baz. On May 1, Baz allowed seven runs on nine hits vs. the Royals in a losing effort.

• Say what you will about the Marlins (33-45), but they’re one win away from a 4-2 season series win over a talented Giants squad. Miami has the fifth-best run line record in MLB (43-35, 55.1%), per Team Rankings. Janson Junk recently moved from a bulk relief role to the starting rotation, and he turned in a strong effort last time out: 5.0 innings, five hits, one run, five Ks.

• The Mets are sliding, having lost 10 of their past 12 games, and five of those came against the Braves. New York is still 9.0 games up on the Braves in the standings, though. Griffin Canning has embodied the Mets’ recent struggles; after a 2.47 ERA in his first nine outings, he has a 6.49 ERA in his past six.

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Today’s MLB schedule

Toronto Blue Jays (+117) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-139)
Start time: 1:10 p.m. ET

Athletics (+128) vs. Detroit Tigers (-152)
Start time: 1:10 p.m. ET

Seattle Mariners (+102) vs. Minnesota Twins (-120)
Start time: 1:10 p.m. ET

Philadelphia Phillies (+130) vs. Houston Astros (-152)
Start time: 2:10 p.m. ET

Tampa Bay Rays (-122) vs. Kansas City Royals (+104)
Start time: 2:10 p.m. MT

Chicago Cubs (-137) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+117)
Start time: 2:15 p.m. ET

Los Angeles Dodgers (-295) vs. Colorado Rockies (+240)
Start time: 3:10 p.m. ET

Miami Marlins (+155) vs. San Francisco Giants (-182)
Start time: 3:45 p.m. ET

Atlanta Braves (-105) vs. New York Mets (-113)
Start time: 7:10 p.m. ET