Mike Yastrzemski is my top MLB home run pick for Thursday afternoon.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Yastrzemski has the platoon advantage against a struggling pitcher, which at least partially makes up for the fact that he’s not playing in a HR-friendly park.
Check out the best MLB home run best bet for June 26.
MLB home run best bet
Best Bet: Yastrzemski to hit a home run (+500)
Miami’s Janson Junk is a nice pitcher to target for home run props, even if Oracle Park isn’t a HR-friendly venue.
Among 363 qualified pitchers, Junk has allowed the third-highest average exit velocity (92.9 mph) and the second-highest hard-hit rate (53.7%).
Batting from the left side, Yastrzemski will have the platoon advantage against the right-handed Junk. Yastrzemski has an .811 OPS vs. RHPs in his career, while Junk has allowed an .886 OPS to LHHs.
Over his past 14 games, Yastrzemski has a .340/.429/.553 slash line and a pair of home runs.
Key stat: Yastrzemski has hit five of his seven HRs at home this season.
MLB home run best bet made at 2:18 p.m. ET on 06/26/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.