For Thursday’s MLB home run picks, I’m targeting a pair of hitters who excel against lefty pitching.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Jo Adell is finally making a name for himself several years after being a highly regarded prospect, and he’s been particularly hot in the past 20 games. Elsewhere, Agustin Ramirez can take sole possession of the rookie HR lead if he leaves the yard tonight.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 10.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Ramirez to hit a home run (+440)
If you haven’t been following the Marlins (and who could blame you for that?), you likely don’t know who Ramirez is. But I think he’s a real threat to go deep on Thursday.
The 23-year-old rookie, who was Baseball Prospectus’ No. 55 prospect entering the year, has a 113 OPS+ through 67 games. He’s a dead-pull hitter who should enjoy playing at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
GABP allows 22% more homers than average to right-hitting players, per Baseball Savant, and all 14 of Ramirez’s homers this year have been pulled into the left field seats.
Thursday’s pitching matchup should work in Ramirez’s favour, too. He’ll face left-hander Nick Lodolo, who has allowed 1.34 HR/9 (17th-most among 68 qualified pitchers).
Lodolo has allowed at least one HR in all six of his starts since the beginning of June.
Ramirez does his best work against southpaws, slugging .500 against them this season. He also has a .305/.339/.627 slash line in his past 15 games.
Key stat: Ramirez is tied for the MLB rookie lead in HRs (14).
Best HR predictions
Adell to hit a home run (+360): Once upon a time, Adell was a top-10 draftee and a blue chip prospect.
Now he’s 26, in his sixth MLB season, and things are finally coming together.
The outfielder has an .819 OPS this season in 85 games and has been worth 1.1 bWAR. For context, he was worth a combined -0.6 bWAR through his first five years.
Adell is slugging .558 vs. left-handed pitchers, which definitely has my attention.
He’ll face LHP Patrick Corbin tonight at Angel Stadium, which is the fourth-friendliest HR venue for right-hitting players (17% more HRs than average).
Over his past 20 games, Adell has six homers and a .324/.414/.622 slash line.
MLB home run picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 07/10/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.