Riley Greene and Eugenio Suarez are Wednesday’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Greene has been mashing right-handed pitching all season and draws a particularly compelling matchup tonight. As for Suarez, he’s wielding a dangerous bat in a homer-friendly ballpark.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 9.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Greene to hit a home run (+400)
Greene will start for the American League in the upcoming MLB All-Star Game, and that has everything to do with his ability to crush right-handed pitching.
Against righties, Greene is an elite power bat. Against lefties, he’s a sub-replacement player:
- vs. RHPs: .618 SLG, 168 wRC+
- vs. LHPs: .314 SLG, 78 wRC+
On Wednesday, Greene will face Zack Littell, a righty who has allowed plenty of long balls this season.
Among 67 qualified pitchers, Littell is third-worst in HR-to-fly-ball ratio (16.9%) and in HR/9 (1.95).
Greene hasn’t homered off Littell yet, but the contact quality has been excellent in their past matchups. The outfielder is 5-for-9 with a pair of doubles off Littell, logging a 98.2 mph average exit velocity and a .790 xSLG, per Baseball Savant.
Detroit’s Comerica Park is a bit cavernous and certainly not ideal for dingers. But Greene has homered eight times at home, and with this matchup, I think he can add to the total.
Key stat: Since June 13, Greene has a .297/.343/.659 slash line and nine HRs in 22 starts.
Best HR predictions
Suarez to hit a home run (+480): Getting nearly 5-to-1 odds on a guy with 28 homers before the all-star break? Yeah, I’ll bite on that.
Suarez, who’s tied for fourth in MLB’s home run chase, has cashed this bet 11 times in his past 27 games. Not too shabby.
San Diego’s Petco Park has a reputation as a pitcher-friendly venue, but it’s actually a solid place to go yard.
According to Baseball Savant’s park factors, Petco allows 17% more homers to right-hitting players than the average stadium.
Padres starter Dylan Cease has allowed multiple HRs in back-to-back starts, and Suarez homered off him at Petco last season.
MLB home run picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 07/09/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.