Jordan Horrobin

Kyle Schwarber is on a home run streak, and I’m backing him to extend it on Saturday night.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Schwarber has homered in each of his past three games as part of an explosive month at the plate. Elsewhere, Elly De La Cruz hasn’t been nearly as hot — but he still has ample power potential.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 12.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Schwarber to hit a home run (+235)

This is relatively chalky as far as HR picks go, but how can you not be a fan of what Schwarber is doing right now?

His performance in July has been off the charts:

• 9 games
• 5 HRs
• .800 SLG

Schwarber has homered in three straight games, including the series opener at San Diego’s Petco Park last night. Petco isn’t a homer-friendly park, but Schwarber can slug anywhere.

Schwarber is an upper-crust masher, ranking in the 96th percentile or better in all the most crucial categories, as tracked by Baseball Savant: xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.

Padres starter Yu Darvish made his season debut on July 7 after being sidelined with an elbow injury. His first start didn’t go very well (3.2 innings, two runs on three hits), and Schwarber has gotten the best of him in the past.

In their career head-to-head matchup, Schwarber is 5-for-14 with two home runs, two doubles and a 98.6-mph average exit velocity.

Key stat: Schwarber already has 30 home runs, which is two behind Shohei Ohtani for the NL lead.

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Best HR predictions

De La Cruz to hit a home run (+280): De La Cruz is on a 16-game homerless slump, which isn’t a great selling point.

But now’s a great time to break out of that. He’s at home, batting on his preferred side and facing a very shaky pitcher.

• Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park is the most homer-friendly venue in MLB (30% more homers than average).

• De La Cruz is slugging .543 with 13 HRs from the left side. By comparison, he’s slugging .393 with five HRs from the right side.

• Colorado’s Bradley Blalock allowed 12 earned runs in 3.2 innings last time out, including three HRs.

Blalock has now allowed 21 runs over just three starts this season, and one of those outings was against the Reds. In that game, De La Cruz went 2-for-2 off Blalock.

MLB home run picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET on 07/12/2025.

In the final MLB game on Saturday night, the Toronto Blue Jays visit the Athletics in Sacramento.

The pregame narrative: When the Jays last faced A’s starter Jacob Lopez, they torched him for seven runs over just 1.2 innings in a blowout victory. Toronto is favoured to win tonight and clinch another series victory.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Athletics for July 12, featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ernie Clement.

Blue Jays picks vs. Athletics

Best Bet: Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (-132)

I hate paying this kind of price on the over for a bases prop, but I think it’s fair in this circumstance.

Guerrero is playing in a highly offence-friendly environment, and he’s matched up with a left-hander who has had some real ups and downs.

• According to Baseball Savant’s park factors data, Sutter Health Park allows the second-most hits and runs relative to the league average.

• Since the start of last season, Guerrero’s 165 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching ranks 11th among 135 qualified hitters.

• Lopez has a 4.91 ERA over his past eight outings, allowing 4+ runs in four of those games.

Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a walk, a stolen base and a run in last night’s series opener. He is now 18-12 against this prop in his past 30 games.

Playing at just a 20-homer pace, Guerrero hasn’t put up the kind of power numbers most would expect of him.

But his xSLG (.523) is well north of his actual SLG (.439), so it’s not like the contact quality has been suffering.

Key stat: Guerrero has a .318/.422/.533 slash line vs. LHPs since the start of the 2024 season.

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Quick pick

Clement over 1.5 hits (+138): Clement has some of the most drastic platoon splits you’ll ever see. And when a southpaw is on the mound, he’s always worth at least a look.

The infielder is batting .396 with a 1.074 OPS vs. LHPs this year. By comparison, he’s batting .240 with a .550 OPS vs. RHPs.

Clement is a good pick to collect multiple hits because his contact rate is high, and he rarely walks.

• 96th-percentile K rate
• 93rd-percentile whiff rate
• 22nd-percentile walk rate

Over his past 26 starts, Clement is batting .327 and has gone over 1.5 hits 12 times.

Blue Jays picks were made at 12:06 p.m. ET on 07/12/2025.

A pair of veteran aces headline Saturday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Though I don’t have a prediction on Jacob deGrom, his stellar work on the mound makes Isaac Paredes worth fading in a Lone Star State showdown. Elsewhere, look for Zack Wheeler to build on his NL-leading strikeout total.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 12, featuring a prediction on two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Paredes under 0.5 hits (+140)

Paredes has had an excellent first half for the Astros, mashing 19 home runs en route to being named an all-star replacement.

But I don’t like his chances in tonight’s matchup. Texas right-hander Jacob deGrom has a combination of sliders and upper-90s that is likely to baffle Paredes.

• Against right-hitting players, deGrom throws four-seam fastballs and sliders 96.2% of the time, per Baseball Savant. And his average fastball velocity is 97.4 mph.

• Against fastballs that are 97+ mph, Paredes is 6-for-46 (.130) with zero extra-base hits. Against sliders from right-handed pitchers, he’s 7-for-42 (.167).

deGrom (9-2, 2.29 ERA) looks like his old self, and the two-time Cy Young winner should be in contention for a third if he keeps it up.

He has the seventh-lowest opponent batting average this season (.193) among 99 pitchers with 80-plus innings of work.

The all-star fireballer also ranks in the 75th percentile or better in xBA, xERA, whiff rate, chase rate and barrel rate.

Key stat: Paredes ranks in the bottom-35th percentile in xBA, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

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Best MLB picks

Parlay: Ohtani 3+ strikeouts, 1+ hits (-103): Ohtani has been slowly building back up on the mound, and now going over 2.5 Ks should be within reach.

The NL MVP frontrunner threw a single inning in his first two outings of the year, and he completed 2.0 innings each of the past two starts. With an extended break on the horizon, I could see that workload ticking up again.

If Ohtani pitches into the third on Saturday, I really like his chances to cash this modest Ks prop.

The Giants have the sixth-highest K rate over the past two weeks (24.4%), and Ohtani has 16 Ks in 46 plate appearances against the active lineup (34.8 K%).

On the hitting side, Ohtani has a .998 OPS, which is the third-highest in MLB. He ranks in the 99th or 100th percentile in xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.

Wheeler over 6.5 Ks (+114): The San Diego Padres have one of the lowest strikeout rates in the majors, but I’m more focused on Wheeler’s side of this. He’s in a groove right now that cannot be ignored.

• Wheeler has 7+ Ks in six straight starts. In that span, he’s averaging 9.0 Ks per game.

• Last time out, Wheeler fanned 12 batters in a complete game one-hitter vs. the Reds.

Wheeler has cashed this bet in all four starts vs. the Padres since 2022, which includes a gem two weeks ago (8.0 innings, six hits, zero runs, 10 Ks).

The right-hander is five strikeouts shy of the MLB lead, so he should get back in front by day’s end.

MLB prop picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 07/12/2025.

With one final series left ahead of the all-star break, the Toronto Blue Jays visit the Athletics in Sacramento.

The pregame narrative: Toronto (54-38) already has its best pre-all-star win total in franchise history, but there’s time to pile on. The A’s are 1-10 in Luis Severino‘s past 11 starts, and he’s been particularly rough in the past six weeks.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Athletics for July 11, featuring Severino and Addison Barger.

Blue Jays picks vs. Athletics

Best Bet: Severino under 17.5 outs (-124)

Severino is on a nightmarish run for the A’s right now, and it all started once the calendar flipped to June.

Prior to June 1, the right-hander had a 3.89 ERA with a .643 opponent OPS.

But since then, Severino has an 8.03 ERA with a .917 OPS. His .297 opponent xBA since June 1 isn’t far off his actual opponent BA (.310), so this doesn’t seem like too much of a fluke.

And now he’s running into a buzzsaw of a Blue Jays squad.

Toronto is 10-1 in its past 11 games and has played at a 116-win pace since May 28. During their recent 10-game win streak, the Jays posted an .838 OPS and scored 6.6 runs per game.

Also, the opposing starter went under 17.5 outs in nine of 10 games during Toronto’s streak.

Severino has gone under 17.5 outs in six of his past seven, and I don’t expect the A’s to push him if he continues to struggle.

The all-star break is coming up on Monday, and only two of the Athletics’ nine relievers have pitched more than once in the past four days.

Key stat: Severino is 0-8 with a 7.04 ERA and an .829 opponent OPS at home this season.

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Quick pick

Barger over 0.5 RBI (-104): Not getting plus-money odds on an RBI prop just feels wrong, but I’m a huge fan of this matchup for Barger.

In case my Severino bashing in the section above wasn’t clear enough, I expect the Jays to put up some runs tonight.

Barger, who bats fifth, should have plenty of traffic on the basepaths ahead of him. And with a platoon advantage (.877 OPS vs. righties this year), he should be able to cash.

The third baseman has 14 RBI in his past 10 starts, going 8-2 vs. this prop in that span.

Blue Jays picks were made at 11:16 a.m. ET on 07/11/2025.