With one final series left ahead of the all-star break, the Toronto Blue Jays visit the Athletics in Sacramento.
The pregame narrative: Toronto (54-38) already has its best pre-all-star win total in franchise history, but there’s time to pile on. The A’s are 1-10 in Luis Severino‘s past 11 starts, and he’s been particularly rough in the past six weeks.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Athletics for July 11, featuring Severino and Addison Barger.
Blue Jays picks vs. Athletics
Best Bet: Severino under 17.5 outs (-124)
Severino is on a nightmarish run for the A’s right now, and it all started once the calendar flipped to June.
Prior to June 1, the right-hander had a 3.89 ERA with a .643 opponent OPS.
But since then, Severino has an 8.03 ERA with a .917 OPS. His .297 opponent xBA since June 1 isn’t far off his actual opponent BA (.310), so this doesn’t seem like too much of a fluke.
And now he’s running into a buzzsaw of a Blue Jays squad.
Toronto is 10-1 in its past 11 games and has played at a 116-win pace since May 28. During their recent 10-game win streak, the Jays posted an .838 OPS and scored 6.6 runs per game.
Also, the opposing starter went under 17.5 outs in nine of 10 games during Toronto’s streak.
Severino has gone under 17.5 outs in six of his past seven, and I don’t expect the A’s to push him if he continues to struggle.
The all-star break is coming up on Monday, and only two of the Athletics’ nine relievers have pitched more than once in the past four days.
Key stat: Severino is 0-8 with a 7.04 ERA and an .829 opponent OPS at home this season.
Quick pick
Barger over 0.5 RBI (-104): Not getting plus-money odds on an RBI prop just feels wrong, but I’m a huge fan of this matchup for Barger.
In case my Severino bashing in the section above wasn’t clear enough, I expect the Jays to put up some runs tonight.
Barger, who bats fifth, should have plenty of traffic on the basepaths ahead of him. And with a platoon advantage (.877 OPS vs. righties this year), he should be able to cash.
The third baseman has 14 RBI in his past 10 starts, going 8-2 vs. this prop in that span.
Blue Jays picks were made at 11:16 a.m. ET on 07/11/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.