In the final MLB game on Saturday night, the Toronto Blue Jays visit the Athletics in Sacramento.
The pregame narrative: When the Jays last faced A’s starter Jacob Lopez, they torched him for seven runs over just 1.2 innings in a blowout victory. Toronto is favoured to win tonight and clinch another series victory.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Athletics for July 12, featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ernie Clement.
Blue Jays picks vs. Athletics
Best Bet: Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (-132)
I hate paying this kind of price on the over for a bases prop, but I think it’s fair in this circumstance.
Guerrero is playing in a highly offence-friendly environment, and he’s matched up with a left-hander who has had some real ups and downs.
- According to Baseball Savant’s park factors data, Sutter Health Park allows the second-most hits and runs relative to the league average.
- Since the start of last season, Guerrero’s 165 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching ranks 11th among 135 qualified hitters.
- Lopez has a 4.91 ERA over his past eight outings, allowing 4+ runs in four of those games.
Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a walk, a stolen base and a run in last night’s series opener. He is now 18-12 against this prop in his past 30 games.
Playing at just a 20-homer pace, Guerrero hasn’t put up the kind of power numbers most would expect of him.
But his xSLG (.523) is well north of his actual SLG (.439), so it’s not like the contact quality has been suffering.
Key stat: Guerrero has a .318/.422/.533 slash line vs. LHPs since the start of the 2024 season.
Quick pick
Clement over 1.5 hits (+138): Clement has some of the most drastic platoon splits you’ll ever see. And when a southpaw is on the mound, he’s always worth at least a look.
The infielder is batting .396 with a 1.074 OPS vs. LHPs this year. By comparison, he’s batting .240 with a .550 OPS vs. RHPs.
Clement is a good pick to collect multiple hits because his contact rate is high, and he rarely walks.
- 96th-percentile K rate
- 93rd-percentile whiff rate
- 22nd-percentile walk rate
Over his past 26 starts, Clement is batting .327 and has gone over 1.5 hits 12 times.
Blue Jays picks were made at 12:06 p.m. ET on 07/12/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.