Kyle Schwarber is on a home run streak, and I’m backing him to extend it on Saturday night.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Schwarber has homered in each of his past three games as part of an explosive month at the plate. Elsewhere, Elly De La Cruz hasn’t been nearly as hot — but he still has ample power potential.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 12.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Schwarber to hit a home run (+235)
This is relatively chalky as far as HR picks go, but how can you not be a fan of what Schwarber is doing right now?
His performance in July has been off the charts:
- 9 games
- 5 HRs
- .800 SLG
Schwarber has homered in three straight games, including the series opener at San Diego’s Petco Park last night. Petco isn’t a homer-friendly park, but Schwarber can slug anywhere.
Schwarber is an upper-crust masher, ranking in the 96th percentile or better in all the most crucial categories, as tracked by Baseball Savant: xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
Padres starter Yu Darvish made his season debut on July 7 after being sidelined with an elbow injury. His first start didn’t go very well (3.2 innings, two runs on three hits), and Schwarber has gotten the best of him in the past.
In their career head-to-head matchup, Schwarber is 5-for-14 with two home runs, two doubles and a 98.6-mph average exit velocity.
Key stat: Schwarber already has 30 home runs, which is two behind Shohei Ohtani for the NL lead.
Best HR predictions
De La Cruz to hit a home run (+280): De La Cruz is on a 16-game homerless slump, which isn’t a great selling point.
But now’s a great time to break out of that. He’s at home, batting on his preferred side and facing a very shaky pitcher.
- Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park is the most homer-friendly venue in MLB (30% more homers than average).
- De La Cruz is slugging .543 with 13 HRs from the left side. By comparison, he’s slugging .393 with five HRs from the right side.
- Colorado’s Bradley Blalock allowed 12 earned runs in 3.2 innings last time out, including three HRs.
Blalock has now allowed 21 runs over just three starts this season, and one of those outings was against the Reds. In that game, De La Cruz went 2-for-2 off Blalock.
MLB home run picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET on 07/12/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.