A pair of veteran aces headline Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Though I don’t have a prediction on Jacob deGrom, his stellar work on the mound makes Isaac Paredes worth fading in a Lone Star State showdown. Elsewhere, look for Zack Wheeler to build on his NL-leading strikeout total.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 12, featuring a prediction on two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Paredes under 0.5 hits (+140)
Paredes has had an excellent first half for the Astros, mashing 19 home runs en route to being named an all-star replacement.
But I don’t like his chances in tonight’s matchup. Texas right-hander Jacob deGrom has a combination of sliders and upper-90s that is likely to baffle Paredes.
- Against right-hitting players, deGrom throws four-seam fastballs and sliders 96.2% of the time, per Baseball Savant. And his average fastball velocity is 97.4 mph.
- Against fastballs that are 97+ mph, Paredes is 6-for-46 (.130) with zero extra-base hits. Against sliders from right-handed pitchers, he’s 7-for-42 (.167).
deGrom (9-2, 2.29 ERA) looks like his old self, and the two-time Cy Young winner should be in contention for a third if he keeps it up.
He has the seventh-lowest opponent batting average this season (.193) among 99 pitchers with 80-plus innings of work.
The all-star fireballer also ranks in the 75th percentile or better in xBA, xERA, whiff rate, chase rate and barrel rate.
Key stat: Paredes ranks in the bottom-35th percentile in xBA, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Best MLB picks
Parlay: Ohtani 3+ strikeouts, 1+ hits (-103): Ohtani has been slowly building back up on the mound, and now going over 2.5 Ks should be within reach.
The NL MVP frontrunner threw a single inning in his first two outings of the year, and he completed 2.0 innings each of the past two starts. With an extended break on the horizon, I could see that workload ticking up again.
If Ohtani pitches into the third on Saturday, I really like his chances to cash this modest Ks prop.
The Giants have the sixth-highest K rate over the past two weeks (24.4%), and Ohtani has 16 Ks in 46 plate appearances against the active lineup (34.8 K%).
On the hitting side, Ohtani has a .998 OPS, which is the third-highest in MLB. He ranks in the 99th or 100th percentile in xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
Wheeler over 6.5 Ks (+114): The San Diego Padres have one of the lowest strikeout rates in the majors, but I’m more focused on Wheeler’s side of this. He’s in a groove right now that cannot be ignored.
- Wheeler has 7+ Ks in six straight starts. In that span, he’s averaging 9.0 Ks per game.
- Last time out, Wheeler fanned 12 batters in a complete game one-hitter vs. the Reds.
Wheeler has cashed this bet in all four starts vs. the Padres since 2022, which includes a gem two weeks ago (8.0 innings, six hits, zero runs, 10 Ks).
The right-hander is five strikeouts shy of the MLB lead, so he should get back in front by day’s end.
MLB prop picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 07/12/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.