Jordan Horrobin

The NBA’s two most iconic franchises meet for one of their biannual matchups on Thursday night at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.

The pregame narrative: LeBron James remains a steady scorer for the Lakers, and I expect him to at least hit the 20-point milestone tonight. I’m also backing player props on Jrue Holiday and Derrick White for this +370 ticket.

Check out my Celtics vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 23.

Celtics vs. Lakers predictions

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Parlay: Under 225.5 points + LeBron over 19.5 points + Holiday over 3.5 rebounds + White over 1.5 threes (+370)

Under 225.5 points (-220): The Lakers have hit this under in five of their past six home games. And given how unders-friendly the Celtics have been on the road, I think this is a worth alt total to take.

Unders are 15-6-0 (71.4%) when Boston plays on the road this season, per Team Rankings. That’s the highest rate in the NBA.

The Celtics did sneak past this total last night in a 117-113 win over the Clippers, but perhaps the back-to-back will slow their scoring pace on Thursday.

Boston has hit the under in eight of 11 games this season when playing with a rest disadvantage.

SGP legs

LeBron over 19.5 points (-225): LeBron’s scoring average is at a 20-year low (not an exaggeration), but he’s still putting up 23.7 points per game.

His ceiling as a scorer isn’t nearly as high as it used to be, but one of LeBron’s greatest accomplishments has been his ability to maintain a steady floor of production.

• LeBron has 20+ points in 25/38 games this year.

• He’s averaging 25.9 PPG since Dec. 4, scoring 18+ points in 17/17 games in that span.

Boston has a top-five defensive rating and is a tough matchup for most. But the King tends to get his. He’s cashed this prop in five of six games against the Celtics since the 2020-21 season.

Holiday over 3.5 rebounds (-186): Holiday missed last night’s game with a shoulder injury, so there’s no guarantee he’ll be on the floor tonight. As of this writing, the Celtics hadn’t yet released their Thursday injury report.

If Holiday does play, though, he should be the freshest guy on the team. And he’ll be in a great spot to hit this rebound total.

• Holiday has 4+ rebounds in 8/9 games since Jan. 3.

• He’s averaging 4.4 RPG this year.

• He’s cashed this bet in 6/6 games vs. Los Angeles since the 2021-22 season.

White over 1.5 threes (-420): It’s been an atrocious stretch of 3-point shooting for White, who owns a 23.5 3PT% over his past eight games.

Still, his shot volume is so high that canning a pair of 3s should be a nightly occurrence.

White has cashed this bet in four straight games despite the nightmarish efficiency. And on the season, he’s gone over 1.5 threes in 35 of 42 matchups.

If you remove this leg, the SGP odds sink from +370 to +245. With that in mind, I’m happy to tack it on.

Picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET 01/23/2025

From early afternoon through the night, I’ve got three NBA prop bets to cover Thursday’s action.

The pregame narrative: Victor Wembanyama is the headliner of today’s NBA matchup in France, and I expect him to put on a defensive masterclass for his countrymen. In the evening, look for Daniel Gafford to capitalize in a plus matchup and for Zach LaVine to rain 3s.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 23.

Best NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Gafford to record a double-double (+105)

For a second consecutive night, I’m targeting a starting centre in a favourable matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

What makes OKC, the league’s No. 1 team, so favourable? It’s the lack of size brought on by injuries to Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Without them, the Thunder’s biggest player is 6-foot-8 forward Jaylin Williams.

Last night, Utah Jazz centre Walker Kessler took advantage of the size mismatch by putting up 17 points and 15 rebounds — far above his season averages.

Tonight, I think the 6-foot-10 Gafford can do similar damage.

Gafford has only re-entered the Dallas Mavericks’ starting lineup because of an injury to Dereck Lively. In four games since then, he’s put up excellent numbers:

• 20.0 PPG
• 11.3 RPG
• 76.2 FG%
• Three double-doubles

The catch is that Gafford’s only game in that stretch without a double-double came against the Thunder (eight points, six rebounds). But that’s because foul trouble restricted him to just 20 minutes of action.

Gafford has played 30-plus minutes in the three other recent starts, and a similar workload should be enough for him to cash this bet.

Key stat: OKC allows the third-most rebounds per game (46.4) in the NBA.

Quick picks

Wembanyama over 4.5 steals/blocks (-141): Thursday’s matchup for Wembanyama is more of a home game than any matchup he’s had in San Antonio, as his Spurs take on the Indiana Pacers in Paris.

Wemby’s prop markets are pretty juiced up for this 2 p.m. ET tip-off, but I’m willing to pay the price in his steals/blocks (i.e., “stocks”) market.

The heavy favourite to win Defensive Player of the Year is leading the league in blocks (4.0), and he also averages 1.1 steals per game.

Over his past 16 matchups, Wembanyama has cashed this bet 12 times while averaging 5.8 stocks.

Indiana plays at the eighth-fastest pace in the NBA (100.5 possessions/game). More possessions means more opportunities for Wemby to be a menace in front of the French faithful.

LaVine over 2.5 threes (-137): LaVine’s days with the Chicago Bulls could be numbered as the trade deadline looms. If a deal does happen, his talent as a 3-point shooter will be a key reason why.

The 11-year vet has always been a solid shooter from deep, but he’s found a new level this year. He’s averaging 3.2 makes on an NBA-high 45.0% shooting.

Coming off a 5-for-12 effort from beyond the arc on Monday (vs. the Clippers), LaVine has now cashed this bet in 19 of his past 28 games.

Tonight he’ll face the Golden State Warriors, who allow 3.1 threes per game to opposing small forwards (fifth-most in the NBA, per Betting Pros).

Picks made at 9:35 a.m. ET on 01/23/2025.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are massive home favourites on Wednesday night against the woeful Utah Jazz.

The pregame narrative: In a game with significant blowout potential, I’m looking for B- and C-list players to make some noise. My +340 SGP features player props for Walker Kessler, Jaylin Williams and Luguentz Dort.

Check out my Jazz vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 22.

Jazz vs. Thunder predictions

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Parlay: Kessler over 19.5 points/rebounds + Williams over 6.5 rebounds + Dort 2+ threes (+340)

Kessler over 19.5 points/rebounds (-120): I’m fascinated by the size mismatch that Kessler will have tonight, and I expect the seven-footer to take advantage.

With both Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren hurt, the Thunder don’t have a rotation player taller than 6-foot-8. That might be a problem.

Especially when you consider that Kessler is playing stellar basketball right now. Check out his numbers over the past 10 games:

• 12.9 PPG
• 12.4 RPG
• 76.7 FG%
• 20+ pts/reb in 8/10 games

In a blowout loss against the Thunder in December (when Hartenstein was healthy), Kessler racked up 17 points on 6-of-7 shooting and added 11 rebounds .

SGP legs

Williams over 6.5 rebounds (-118): So which undersized OKC player is drawing the short straw of matching up with Kessler? That appears to be 6-foot-8 power forward Jaylin Williams.

Though undersized in height, Williams is listed at 250 pounds, so he’s not exactly “small” as a rebounder. And surely Kessler can’t grab all the boards under the net, right?

Williams has drawn into the starting lineup in three straight games due to OKC’s frontcourt injuries. He’s topped 26 minutes in back-to-back games — for the first time this season — and collected 18 rebounds in those matchups.

The third-year forward has cashed this bet in four of his past six games.

Dort 2+ threes (-315): Sometimes you shoot and shoot, and you come up empty. That’s what happened to Dort three nights ago in a scoreless showing against the Brooklyn Nets (0-for-5 from 3-point range).

It really doesn’t happen often, though, especially given Dort’s typical shooting volume beyond the arc.

The Montreal native is shooting a team-high 41.7% from deep on 5.6 attempts per game.

• Dort has 2+ threes in 25/41 games.

• In his past 11 games, he’s averaging 2.9 makes on 50.0% shooting beyond the arc.

Utah is a great team for Dort to bounce back against. The Jazz allow the third-most 3s per game to their opponents (14.4).

Picks made at 3:40 p.m. ET 01/22/2025

I’m locking in on the 8 p.m. window for Wednesday’s NBA prop bets, including a pair of picks from the Cleveland Cavaliers versus Houston Rockets matchup.

The pregame narrative: Houston’s Alperen Sengun has a very attainable assists prop tonight, while Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell is worth fading as a scorer. Elsewhere, Walker Kessler should rack up solid rebounding numbers in a plus matchup.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 22.

Best NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Mitchell under 26.5 points (-109)

Two seasons ago, when Mitchell first joined the Cavaliers, he shouldered a significant workload on a desperate team that hadn’t been to the playoffs since LeBron James’ (second) departure.

Mitchell averaged 28.3 PPG that year, and the Cavaliers won 51 games but flamed out in the first round.

Fast forward to now, and Mitchell is still Cleveland’s centrepiece — but he has a much deeper supporting cast.

The first-place Cavs are on a 70-win pace, and Mitchell is averaging 23.3 PPG. That’s his lowest scoring average since 2017-18, when he was a rookie in Utah.

What does all of this mean? Less is more for Mitchell on a deep Cavs squad, and he’s not typically asked to fill the net the way he used to.

With that in mind, and given the matchup he faces on Wednesday night, I think Mitchell is well worth a fade.

Look at how the Rockets rank defensively:

• 3rd in defensive rating
• 4th in opponent PPG
• 5th in opponent FG%

Houston also allows the third-fewest made 3s per game (12.5), and that commitment to defending the perimeter should be a problem for Mitchell, too.

Key stat: Mitchell has gone under 26.5 points in 13 of his past 18 games.

Quick picks

Sengun over 4.5 assists (-136): I don’t love this price, but I do love how Sengun has established himself as a premier passer for the Rockets.

The 22-year-old centre is averaging a career-high 5.1 assists per game. He’s one of just two Houston players above 3.0 APG.

Centres tend not to be consistent facilitators, but that’s a key to Sengun’s success.

He’s third among all NBA centres in potential assists per game (10.0), a metric that tallies the number of passes that lead directly to a shot.

In his past 25 games, Sengun has cashed this bet 18 times.

Kessler over 10.5 rebounds (-137): Tonight marks the fourth consecutive game in which Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren will both sit out for the Oklahoma City Thunder.

That means seven-footer Walker Kessler will have quite a size mismatch around the rim. He’ll spend most of the night jockeying for position against Jaylin Williams (6-foot-8) and Aaron Wiggins (6-foot-6).

OKC allows the fourth-most rebounds per game, and Kessler should get his fair share as the biggest player on the court.

Over his past 12 games, Kessler has averaged 13.0 rebounds and cashed this bet nine times.

Picks made at 1:05 p.m. ET on 01/22/2025.

I’m backing a guard, a forward and a centre for Monday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: In the afternoon, Trae Young’s plus-money value as a passer has my eye. Later on, I’m fading Trey Murphy III against the Utah Jazz and backing Nikola Vucevic against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 20.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Murphy under 3.5 threes (-143)

Unders are often not fun, and I’d say that sentiment applies here. But it makes sense to fade Murphy even in a matchup against the Jazz that seems exploitable.

• Murphy has gone under 3.5 threes in 18/27 games this season (66.7%).
  
• He’s never scored 4+ threes vs. Utah (incl. five games since December 2022).

Murphy averages 8.6 attempted 3s per game, which is the most among New Orleans Pelicans players. But at that volume, you’d still have to shoot above 45.0% to cash this bet.

Utah allows the third-most 3s per game, but that’s also because it allows the most attempts. From an efficiency standpoint, the Jazz hold opponents to the 11th-lowest 3PT% (35.7).

On any given night, Murphy could be the guy to heave 10-plus threes at the bucket. But CJ McCollum and Dejounte Murray are just as capable of being that guy, too.

In my view, the Pelicans have too many mouths to feed when all three M’s are healthy.

Murphy is a talented shooter, but his volume isn’t secure enough for me to want the over at this number.

Key stat: Against Utah on Friday, McCollum and Murray combined for 18 attempted threes while Murphy went 2-for-6 from deep.

Quick picks

Young over 10.5 assists (+108): I’ve made some hay recently by betting Young’s points prop, but I think Monday’s matchup against the New York Knicks is a good opportunity to pivot.

Young leads the NBA in assists this season (11.8/game) and has cashed this bet in 22 of 38 games.

Getting over 10.5 assists at plus money looks like a value to me — especially when you consider Young’s recent results against the Knicks.

In his past five games against New York, dating back to February 2023, Young has averaged 12.2 assists and hit this over four times.

Vucevic over 13.5 rebounds/assists (-108): The Clippers have the No. 2-ranked defensive rating (107.3), which seems like an explanation for why this line is lower than I’d expect.

Still, I don’t view strong defence as an inhibitor for a prop market like this (keep in mind that you need missed shots to grab rebounds).

Vucevic is rolling right now as a scorer, rebounder and passer. The Bulls should continue giving him big minutes and letting him do his thing.

Over his past 14 games, Vucevic has averaged 11.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists (15.5 RA), cashing this bet 11 times.

The Clippers allow the third-most assists per game to opposing centres (4.8), per Betting Pros, which should help. If Vucevic hovers around the 10-rebound mark, the over will be in play.

Picks made at 12:10 p.m. ET on 01/20/2025.