Jordan Horrobin

I’m keying on tonight’s matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Portland Trail Blazers for two of my three prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Giannis Antetokounmpo is a walking, breathing 30-piece these days. I expect another nice scoring output from him tonight. Portland’s Toumani Camara also has my attention — as does Amen Thompson in the early slate.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 28.

Best NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Giannis over 31.5 points (-105)

Giannis is on an impressively consistent run of hitting the 30-point threshold. In a plus matchup, I like his chances of doing just a little bit more.

Let’s start by highlighting what the Greek Freak has accomplished over his past 20 games, dating back to Dec. 4:

• 30.5 PPG
• 30+ points in 14/20 games
• 59.3 FG%
• 11.0 FTA

The NBA MVP race looks like a two-man competition with Giannis as an outsider, but the two-time award winner is still putting on quite a show leading up to the all-star break.

Now he’ll face the Portland Trail Blazers, who’ve struggled on defence throughout the season:

• 26th in defensive rating
• 23rd in opponent FG%
• 23rd in opponent FTA
• 22nd in opponent PPG

Giannis landed on exactly 31 points when he faced Portland earlier this month in a game where he went 3-for-4 from the free throw line.

Given that the Blazers allow more free throw attempts than most teams — and Giannis averages 11.0 FTA alone — any uptick in that regard should boost his overall scoring potential.

Key stat: Giannis has cashed this bet in 10 of his past 18 games.

Quick picks

Camara over 16.5 points/rebounds (-120): Coming off his best game of the season, and facing a team he’s performed well against recently, I really like this over for Camara.

You might not have heard of Camara, a second-year pro who was one of the final picks of the 2023 draft. But he’s been a starter for the Portland Trail Blazers all year, filling the role of an undersized but athletic big who can shoot.

Two nights ago, Camara went 5-for-5 from deep as part of a 24-point, nine-rebound performance. He’s now cashed this bet in four of his past five games.

And earlier this month (Jan. 4), Camara had 15 points and six rebounds against the Milwaukee Bucks. That’s who he’ll see tonight, and he should remain prominently involved.

Thompson over 28.5 points/rebounds (-109): I’m willing to be a prisoner of the moment with Thompson. Because he’s having quite a moment.

On Monday night, Thompson hit a game-winning floater to knock off the Boston Celtics. That capped off a career-best night for the 21-year-old, who finished with 33 points and nine rebounds.

• Since joining the Houston Rockets starting lineup 10 games ago, Thompson has averaged 19.2 points and 11.5 rebounds.

• The Atlanta Hawks allow the fourth-most points and seventh-most rebounds per game.

It’s not that Atlanta’s defence is particularly poor, but the Hawks tend to play really, really fast. In a game that could turn into a track meet, Thompson looks like a strong pick to hit this over.

Picks made at 9:15 a.m. ET on 01/28/2025.

In Sunday’s lone NBA game, the Portland Trail Blazers host the Oklahoma City Thunder at Moda Center.

The pregame narrative: Despite the fact the Blazers have strung together a few respectable outings, I’m looking to back the Thunder on an alt spread. My +275 SGP also features prop bets for Jalen Williams and Donovan Clingan.

Check out my Thunder vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 26.

Thunder vs. Trail Blazers predictions

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Parlay: Thunder -10 + Williams over 19.5 points + Clingan over 7.5 rebounds (+275)

Thunder -10 (-225): Portland has been frisky in recent games, winning four in a row as an underdog. But I don’t expect that to carry over against an elite squad like OKC.

The Thunder have one of the league’s best ATS records (27-15-3), which includes an 11-6-2 ATS mark as road favourites.

Playing at home really hasn’t been an advantage for the Blazers, who are 9-12 at Moda Center. They have a -8.4 net rating at home, which ranks 28th in the NBA.

When these teams matched up in Portland in November, OKC came away with a 23-point win.

The Blazers have lost five of their past six home games by 18 or more points.

Other SGP legs

Williams over 19.5 points (-180): MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the main attraction for OKC, but Williams is a consistent contributor in the sidekick role.

Known to some as J-Dub, Williams is averaging 21.0 PPG in his third pro season. In his past eight games, he’s cashed this bet four times while landing on exactly 19 points three times.

What I’m heartened by is Williams’ production against the Trail Blazers this season:

• Nov. 1: 22 points on 8-of-12 shooting (4-of-6 3PT)

• Nov. 20: 30 points on 11-of-19 shooting (5-of-9 3PT)

Williams has scored 20-plus points in five of his past six games against the Blazers, averaging 24.3 PPG in those matchups.

Clingan over 7.5 rebounds (-210): When everyone’s healthy, the Trail Blazers have a logjam of centres. But with DeAndre Ayton (knee) ruled out for tonight, there’s a pathway for Clingan and Robert Williams to both see solid minutes.

• Clingan has 10+ rebounds in four straight games.
  
• He’s averaging 11.1 rebounds in eight games with 20+ minutes played.

As long as Clingan hovers around 20-ish minutes tonight, I really like his chances of soaring past this total. But he’s been efficient enough in previous matchups against OKC that he may not need a big workload after all.

Through two matchups against the Thunder, Clingan has 16 total rebounds in 34 minutes.

OKC has the lowest rebounding rate in the NBA (46.8%).

Picks made at 1:00 p.m. on 01/26/25.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues his MVP campaign on Sunday evening in a matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers.

The pregame narrative: The Canadian superstar has -400 odds to win the MVP award amid a career-best scoring season. He’s expected to score in bunches on Sunday, but I’m looking elsewhere for my best bet.

Check out these Shai Gilgeous-Alexander props for the Jan. 26 matchup against the Trail Blazers.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander props vs. Trail Blazers

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Best SGA prop bet

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Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander 6+ assists (-137)

Despite his scoring prowess, Gilgeous-Alexander still has plenty of talent as a passer.

Gilgeous-Alexander, raised in Hamilton, Ontario, is averaging more than 30.0 PPG for a third consecutive season. But he’s also in his fifth consecutive season with 5.5 APG or more.

Naturally, a player who’s a 30-point threat every night will draw a crowd. So it makes sense that he’s an active enough passer to clear this assists line rather regularly, too.

• SGA has 6+ assists in 24/43 games (55.8%) and is averaging 6.1 APG on the year.

• He ranks 15th in the NBA in potential assists per game (12.1), which accounts for every pass that leads directly to a shot.

The Trail Blazers allow the eighth-most points in the NBA. They also rank 25th in defensive rating. So the Thunder should be able to fill up the net tonight.

There’s a blowout risk at play, which is probably my main concern. OKC is a 13.5-point road favourite and already has a pair of double-digit-point wins against Portland this year.

Hopefully the Blazers, who’ve won four in a row, can put up a fight to prevent the Thunder from giving Gilgeous-Alexander a ton of rest.

Key stat: Over his past 15 games, SGA has cashed this bet 10 times while averaging 6.2 assists.

Pick as of 10:36 a.m. ET on 01/26/2025.

In the third and final NBA game on Friday night, the New Orleans Pelicans take on the Memphis Grizzlies.

The pregame narrative: Memphis is having a really great year, and New Orleans is really, really not. My +265 SGP includes an alt spread in Memphis’ favour, plus prop bets on Ja Morant and Yves Missi.

Check out my Pelicans vs. Grizzlies same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 24.

Pelicans vs. Grizzlies predictions

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Parlay: Grizzlies -7.5 + Morant over 19.5 points + Missi under 8.5 rebounds (+265)

Grizzlies -7.5 (-215): Have the Pelicans started to show some signs of life … or did they just take advantage of a weak stretch in their schedule?

I feel confident that it’s the latter. New Orleans is 7-3 in its past 10 games, but look at who the team beat:

• Wizards, twice (last in the Eastern Conference)
• Jazz, twice (last in the Western Conference)
• 76ers (11th in the East)
• Bulls (10th in the East)
• Mavericks (without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving)

New Orleans’ best game in several weeks was a one-point loss in Boston on Jan. 12. But that was only a few days after the Pelicans lost by 19 as home favourites against Portland.

I feel much better about the state of the Grizzlies, a team that covered this number in both prior matchups against the Pels this year.

Also, Memphis is an impressive 15-7-0 ATS at home, per Team Rankings.

SGP legs

Morant over 19.5 points (-278): Morant has taken a step back as a scorer this year, but he’s still been largely reliable against this number.

• Morant has 20+ points in 16/26 games (61.5%).

• He’s averaging 21.1 PPG on the season.

• He scored 27 and 25 points, respectively, in two matchups against the Pelicans this year.

Morant has been a problem for the Pelicans for years. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, he’s scored 23-plus points in all seven meetings against them.

Defensive ineptitude has been a theme this year for New Orleans. The team ranks 28th in defensive rating and opponent FG%.

Missi under 8.5 rebounds (-105): One of the bright spots in a lost Pelicans season has been the play of rookie Yves Missi. But I prefer to fade him tonight.

Missi, a centre out of Baylor, is tied for the team lead in rebounds per game (8.2). That’s nice, but it falls short of this prop total. And Memphis is typically a tough team to compete against on the glass.

Led by the 7-foot-4 Zach Edey and the scrappy Jaren Jackson Jr., the Grizzlies have compiled the NBA’s second-best rebounding rate (52.5%).

Zion Williamson is out, which should lead to more rebounding opportunities for Missi. But Missi has gone under this rebounding total in eight of his past 11 games, including six of eight with Williamson out.

Picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET 01/24/2025

A contender matches up with a pretender on Friday as the Cleveland Cavaliers get set to face the Philadelphia 76ers.

The pregame narrative: Cleveland lost two nights ago in Houston but should have a much softer landing in Philly. I like the Cavs to cover an alt spread, Donovan Mitchell to can a few 3s and Tyrese Maxey to stay hot as a scorer.

Check out my Cavaliers vs. 76ers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 24.

Cavaliers vs. 76ers predictions

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Parlay: Cavaliers -7.5 + Mitchell over 2.5 threes + Maxey over 26.5 points (+290)

Cavaliers -7.5 (-205): If you’re a Sixers fan, just be thankful that the 2025 first-round pick is top-six protected.

Because if things continue trending the way they are right now, an upper-tier lottery pick is absolutely within reach.

Philadelphia (15-27 SU, 14-28 ATS) is on a nine-game ATS losing skid that includes eight outright losses. The Sixers have lost their past five games by a combined 84 points.

Bettors can take comfort in this alt spread by knowing that Cleveland (36-7 SU, 29-14 ATS) has covered the number in both matchups against Philly this year.

Also, keep in mind that the Sixers tend to fold when they’re supposed to. They own a 6-16-2 ATS record as underdogs, per Team Rankings.

SGP legs

Mitchell over 2.5 threes (-250): Coming off a 1-for-8 shooting performance from deep, Mitchell should bounce back tonight.

He torched Philly in both prior matchups this season, canning 9-of-23 threes (39.1%) and cashing this bet both times.

Mitchell isn’t just a volume shooter, but the volume certainly doesn’t hurt.

• He’s averaging 9.1 attempted threes per game (12th in the NBA).

• Mitchell has 3+ threes in 17/22 games on 40.2% shooting since Dec. 1.

Another way to contextualize Mitchell’s shot volume is this: He’s attempted seven-plus 3s in 35 of 41 games. Any time he’s at or above that amount, I’ll feel good about this pick.

Maxey over 26.5 points (-167): Even if the Cavs win comfortably, Maxey should make his mark. He plays huge minutes and takes a bunch of shots, and frankly, the Sixers don’t have a reasonable alternative.

Joel Embiid rarely plays, Jared McCain is out for the year, and Paul George hasn’t performed as advertised.

The result? A 30.0% usage rate for Maxey, which is the 11th-highest in the NBA (minimum 20 games played).

Maxey is earning his opportunities right now, scoring over 26.5 points in eight straight games. He also cashed this bet against the Cavs on Dec. 21 while shooting 5-of-10 from beyond the arc.

Without Embiid, Maxey is averaging 27.8 PPG this season, clearing this total in 16 of 25 games.

Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET 01/24/2025

I’ve grabbed one NBA prop bet apiece from Friday night’s three-game slate.

The pregame narrative: LaMelo Ball shoots a lot, and he’ll face a weak opponent tonight … but I still think fading him is the right call. I also have plus-money plays on Tyrese Maxey and Zach Edey.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 24.

Best NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Ball under 31.5 points (-112)

Ball has the confidence and the shot volume to go nuclear on any given night.

But generally speaking, the stars would really have to align for me to bet him to clear a points prop this high. And I don’t view tonight’s matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers as that kind of situation.

• For one thing, Ball (wrist) is listed as questionable on the injury report.

• Tonight’s projected total for Blazers/Hornets is 220.5 points, which is the lowest total of the night. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in possessions per game.

• With or without Brandon Miller, Ball isn’t hitting this over very often.

Let’s go a bit deeper on that third point. With Miller (wrist) sidelined due to injury, Ball theoretically has more opportunities to shoot.

Then again, without Miller, it’s a lot easier for opposing defences to opt to double-team Ball. And his numbers reflect that:

• With Miller (20 games): 30.1 PPG, 24.9 FGA, 42.4 FG%

• Without Miller (9 games): 26.6 PPG, 21.9 FGA, 40.6 FG%

Portland is a bad team, but it can dedicate enough defensive resources to Ball to keep him under this lofty total.

Key stat: Ball has gone under 31.5 points in 18 of 29 games this year, including seven of nine without Miller.

Quick picks

Top point scorer – Maxey (+110): This is somewhat unconventional, but I really like Maxey as the top point scorer in tonight’s Cleveland Cavaliers versus Philadelphia 76ers matchup.

With Joel Embiid operating in milk carton mode this year, Maxey has been left to pick up the slack most nights. And that’s exactly what he’s done — especially in January.

• Maxey has been the 76ers’ leading scorer in eight straight games, averaging 30.6 PPG in that span.

• He was the game’s top scorer in six of those eight matchups.

• Without Embiid, Maxey is averaging 27.8 PPG and has 30+ points in 9/25 games.

The Cavaliers are a much deeper squad, which is why they sit atop the Eastern Conference. They don’t need any individual player to go off the way Maxey typically needs to.

In January, Maxey is averaging 27.6 PPG. The highest scorer on the Cavs this month is Darius Garland at 23.4 PPG.

Edey over 7.5 rebounds (+106): This line used to be a cinch for Edey, but he’s seeing far fewer minutes right now than earlier in the year — and that’s been a problem.

Still, in the right matchup, I see some value in taking a flier on the ginormous Canadian rookie.

• Edey is averaging 7.2 rebounds this year.

• The New Orleans Pelicans (Edey’s opponent tonight) allow the most rebounds per game to opposing centres (17.4), per Betting Pros.

Keep in mind that Edey has gone under 7.5 rebounds in nine of his past 10 games. He’s also averaging just 17.8 minutes in that span despite starting nine of those matchups.

In 20 games before that, Edey averaged 8.0 rebounds in 21.9 minutes.

He had nine boards in his lone matchup against the Pelicans on Dec. 27, so hopefully the Memphis Grizzlies give him enough run tonight.

Picks made at 9:35 a.m. ET on 01/24/2025.