In Sunday’s lone NBA game, the Portland Trail Blazers host the Oklahoma City Thunder at Moda Center.
The pregame narrative: Despite the fact the Blazers have strung together a few respectable outings, I’m looking to back the Thunder on an alt spread. My +275 SGP also features prop bets for Jalen Williams and Donovan Clingan.
Check out my Thunder vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 26.
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers predictions
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Parlay: Thunder -10 + Williams over 19.5 points + Clingan over 7.5 rebounds (+275)
Thunder -10 (-225): Portland has been frisky in recent games, winning four in a row as an underdog. But I don’t expect that to carry over against an elite squad like OKC.
The Thunder have one of the league’s best ATS records (27-15-3), which includes an 11-6-2 ATS mark as road favourites.
Playing at home really hasn’t been an advantage for the Blazers, who are 9-12 at Moda Center. They have a -8.4 net rating at home, which ranks 28th in the NBA.
When these teams matched up in Portland in November, OKC came away with a 23-point win.
The Blazers have lost five of their past six home games by 18 or more points.
Other SGP legs
Williams over 19.5 points (-180): MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the main attraction for OKC, but Williams is a consistent contributor in the sidekick role.
Known to some as J-Dub, Williams is averaging 21.0 PPG in his third pro season. In his past eight games, he’s cashed this bet four times while landing on exactly 19 points three times.
What I’m heartened by is Williams’ production against the Trail Blazers this season:
- Nov. 1: 22 points on 8-of-12 shooting (4-of-6 3PT)
- Nov. 20: 30 points on 11-of-19 shooting (5-of-9 3PT)
Williams has scored 20-plus points in five of his past six games against the Blazers, averaging 24.3 PPG in those matchups.
Clingan over 7.5 rebounds (-210): When everyone’s healthy, the Trail Blazers have a logjam of centres. But with DeAndre Ayton (knee) ruled out for tonight, there’s a pathway for Clingan and Robert Williams to both see solid minutes.
- Clingan has 10+ rebounds in four straight games.
- He’s averaging 11.1 rebounds in eight games with 20+ minutes played.
As long as Clingan hovers around 20-ish minutes tonight, I really like his chances of soaring past this total. But he’s been efficient enough in previous matchups against OKC that he may not need a big workload after all.
Through two matchups against the Thunder, Clingan has 16 total rebounds in 34 minutes.
OKC has the lowest rebounding rate in the NBA (46.8%).
Picks made at 1:00 p.m. on 01/26/25.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.