I’m locking in on the 8 p.m. window for Wednesday’s NBA prop bets, including a pair of picks from the Cleveland Cavaliers versus Houston Rockets matchup.
The pregame narrative: Houston’s Alperen Sengun has a very attainable assists prop tonight, while Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell is worth fading as a scorer. Elsewhere, Walker Kessler should rack up solid rebounding numbers in a plus matchup.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 22.
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Best bet: Mitchell under 26.5 points (-109)
Two seasons ago, when Mitchell first joined the Cavaliers, he shouldered a significant workload on a desperate team that hadn’t been to the playoffs since LeBron James’ (second) departure.
Mitchell averaged 28.3 PPG that year, and the Cavaliers won 51 games but flamed out in the first round.
Fast forward to now, and Mitchell is still Cleveland’s centrepiece — but he has a much deeper supporting cast.
The first-place Cavs are on a 70-win pace, and Mitchell is averaging 23.3 PPG. That’s his lowest scoring average since 2017-18, when he was a rookie in Utah.
What does all of this mean? Less is more for Mitchell on a deep Cavs squad, and he’s not typically asked to fill the net the way he used to.
With that in mind, and given the matchup he faces on Wednesday night, I think Mitchell is well worth a fade.
Look at how the Rockets rank defensively:
- 3rd in defensive rating
- 4th in opponent PPG
- 5th in opponent FG%
Houston also allows the third-fewest made 3s per game (12.5), and that commitment to defending the perimeter should be a problem for Mitchell, too.
Key stat: Mitchell has gone under 26.5 points in 13 of his past 18 games.
Quick picks
Sengun over 4.5 assists (-136): I don’t love this price, but I do love how Sengun has established himself as a premier passer for the Rockets.
The 22-year-old centre is averaging a career-high 5.1 assists per game. He’s one of just two Houston players above 3.0 APG.
Centres tend not to be consistent facilitators, but that’s a key to Sengun’s success.
He’s third among all NBA centres in potential assists per game (10.0), a metric that tallies the number of passes that lead directly to a shot.
In his past 25 games, Sengun has cashed this bet 18 times.
Kessler over 10.5 rebounds (-137): Tonight marks the fourth consecutive game in which Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren will both sit out for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
That means seven-footer Walker Kessler will have quite a size mismatch around the rim. He’ll spend most of the night jockeying for position against Jaylin Williams (6-foot-8) and Aaron Wiggins (6-foot-6).
OKC allows the fourth-most rebounds per game, and Kessler should get his fair share as the biggest player on the court.
Over his past 12 games, Kessler has averaged 13.0 rebounds and cashed this bet nine times.
Picks made at 1:05 p.m. ET on 01/22/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.