Once again, the Buffalo Bills meet the Kansas City Chiefs in an A-plus playoff showdown.
The pregame narrative: With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, I expect vintage Travis Kelce to keep his foot on the gas. As for Buffalo, James Cook has a perfectly attainable scrimmage yards prop.
Check out my Bills vs. Chiefs prop picks for the AFC championship game on Jan. 26.
Bills vs. Chiefs prop picks
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Best bet: Kelce 70+ receiving yards (-114)
Maybe it was load management. Maybe it was the first palpable signs of the aging curve working against him. Either way, Kelce just had his least productive regular season in nearly a decade.
Playoff Kelce is a different animal, though, and he reminded everyone of that fact last week.
In a divisional round win against the Texans, Kelce posted a season-high 117 yards on seven catches. He also scored a touchdown (after finding the end zone just three times in the regular season).
Think of Kelce as a vintage muscle car that spent most of its recent months hibernating in a garage. The Chiefs were careful with his mileage this season, and now he’s roaring to life when it matters most.
Dating back to the 2020 season, this has been a theme for Kelce. Look at his per-game differences in the regular season and playoffs:
- Regular season (since 2020): 8.7 targets, 6.3 catches, 72.0 yards, 0.51 TDs
- Playoffs (since 2020): 10.2 targets, 8.6 catches, 99.1 yards, 1.0 TDs
Kelce has collected 70-plus receiving yards in 14 straight playoff games. Let that one sink in.
While many names and faces have changed on the Chiefs’ offence, the Patrick-Mahomes-to-Travis-Kelce connection hasn’t wavered.
Buffalo will do its best to key on Kelce, but I’m not convinced that that’ll matter.
Key stat: In his past three playoff games against the Bills, Kelce has 26 catches for 289 yards and five TDs. He’s cashed this prop all three times.
Quick pick
Cook over 72.5 rushing/receiving yards (-113): Cook only accrued 27 scrimmage yards against the Chiefs in Week 11, but I expect better things this time around.
- Last week, Cook rushed for 67 yards on 17 carries against the Ravens, who have the No. 1 run defence in the NFL in terms of success rate, yards per rush and total yards. He added 15 yards on three receptions.
- Receiving work could be key against the Chiefs. Though it only turned into seven yards, Cook caught five of six targets against KC in their regular season meeting.
- Cook has 80+ scrimmage yards in four straight playoff games dating back to last year.
Cook had 20-plus touches in both the wild-card round and the divisional round. If that volume holds up on Sunday, he should hit this over.
Picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET on 01/22/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.