I’m locking in on the 8 p.m. window for Wednesday’s NBA prop bets, including a pair of picks from the Cleveland Cavaliers versus Houston Rockets matchup.
The pregame narrative: Houston’s Alperen Sengun has a very attainable assists prop tonight, while Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell is worth fading as a scorer. Elsewhere, Damian Lillard should put up solid numbers in a plus matchup.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 22.
Best NBA prop bets
Go to full NBA betting markets
Best bet: Mitchell under 26.5 points (-118)
Two seasons ago, when Mitchell first joined the Cavaliers, he shouldered a significant workload on a desperate team that hadn’t been to the playoffs since LeBron James’ (second) departure.
Mitchell averaged 28.3 PPG that year, and the Cavaliers won 51 games but flamed out in the first round.
Fast forward to now, and Mitchell is still Cleveland’s centrepiece — but he has a much deeper supporting cast.
The first-place Cavs are on a 70-win pace, and Mitchell is averaging 23.3 PPG. That’s his lowest scoring average since 2017-18, when he was a rookie in Utah.
What does all of this mean? Less is more for Mitchell on a deep Cavs squad, and he’s not typically asked to fill the net the way he used to.
With that in mind, and given the matchup he faces on Wednesday night, I think Mitchell is well worth a fade.
Look at how the Rockets rank defensively:
- 3rd in defensive rating
- 4th in opponent PPG
- 5th in opponent FG%
Houston also allows the third-fewest made 3s per game (12.5), and that commitment to defending the perimeter should be a problem for Mitchell, too.
Key stat: Mitchell has gone under 26.5 points in 13 of his past 18 games.
Quick picks
Sengun over 4.5 assists (-138): I don’t love this price, but I do love how Sengun has established himself as a premier passer for the Rockets.
The 22-year-old centre is averaging a career-high 5.1 assists per game. He’s one of just two Houston players above 3.0 APG.
Centres tend not to be consistent facilitators, but that’s a key to Sengun’s success.
He’s third among all NBA centres in potential assists per game (10.0), a metric that tallies the number of passes that lead directly to a shot.
In his past 25 games, Sengun has cashed this bet 18 times.
Lillard over 30.5 points/assists (-112): The New Orleans Pelicans should be a solid matchup for Lillard in the assist department tonight. Combining that with his recent steadiness as a scorer, and I think this combo market is the way to go.
- The Pelicans allow the eighth-most assists to opposing point guards (9.7/game), per Betting Pros.
- Overall, New Orleans allows the sixth-most assists to opponents.
- Lillard has scored 24+ points in 7/8 games since Jan. 6. He’s averaging 31.7 points/rebounds in that span.
Looking back further, Lillard has hit this over in 14 of his past 22 games.
Picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET on 01/22/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.