Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Pacers vs. Hawks SGP predictions March 6: Ride with Dyson Daniels, Aaron Nesmith in a +320 parlay

In what should be the highest-scoring game of the night, the Atlanta Hawks host the Indiana Pacers on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Backing the over on a teased-down total is the first leg in my +320 SGP. I’m expecting a pair of lesser-known starters — Dyson Daniels and Aaron Nesmith — to play a role in the scoring surge.

Check out my Pacers vs. Hawks SGP predictions for March 6.

Pacers vs. Hawks predictions

Parlay: Over 241.5 points | Daniels over 14.5 points | Nesmith over 1.5 threes (+320)

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Over 241.5 points (-186): Atlanta is an overs machine, and that’s especially true at home.

Overs are 37-25 (59.7%) in Hawks games overall this year and 19-10 (65.5%) at State Farm Arena.

Overs are 5-1 in Atlanta’s past six games. The average total in those games was 246.5 points.

You don’t always have to have a strong offence to cash overs. Sometimes, being fast is good enough.

Atlanta ranks 25th in home offensive rating (110.7) and first in home pace (105.23 possessions/game).

Indiana is hitting overs at a better-than-50.0% rate (32-26-2), and each of its past four road games have landed on the over.

When the Pacers and Hawks met in Indiana last month, they cruised by this total in a 132-127 win for Indiana.

NBA SGP picks

Daniels over 14.5 points (-112): Daniels has been coming on strong as a scorer, and it started with a stellar effort against the Pacers on Feb. 1:

23 points
8-of-15 points
2-of-3 threes
5-of-6 free throws

From that game onward, Daniels has averaged 15.9 points and cashed this bet in eight of 14 games. He’s also scored 10-plus points in all 14 games, so the floor has been quite high.

Indiana doesn’t give up a lot of 3s, but that’s not really Daniels’ game anyway. He likes to attack from the short mid-range and around the rim.

The Pacers’ defence allows the seventh-highest field goal percentage (47.4%) in the NBA.

Nesmith over 1.5 threes (-150): He’s not a headliner for the Pacers, but Nesmith fills a solid role as an athletic forward who can shoot well from outside.

Nesmith has really been letting it fly lately, and the results suggest he should keep firing.

Over his past eight games, Nesmith is averaging 2.4 makes on 42.2% 3-point shooting.

He has 2+ threes in 6 of 8 games.

Back on Feb. 1, Nesmith went 2-for-5 from deep against the Hawks.

Against a lightning-quick team like the Hawks, there should be enough possessions for Nesmith to get a solid volume of shots up.

As long as he stays in the range of five or six attempted 3s, he’s plenty capable of cashing this wager.

Picks made at 10:40 a.m. ET 03/06/2025.

Rockets vs. Pelicans SGP predictions March 6: Ride with Houston, Amen Thompson in +350 parlay

On Thursday night, the Houston Rockets and New Orleans Pelicans embark on the first leg of a home-and-home with a matchup at Smoothie King Center.

The pregame narrative: Zion Williamson is expected to do it all for the Pelicans right now, but I’ve found a way to fade him tonight. On the Rockets’ side, I’m backing Amen Thompson in a plus-money play.

Check out my Rockets vs. Pelicans SGP predictions for March 6.

Rockets vs. Pelicans predictions

Parlay: Rockets ML | Thompson 10+ rebounds | Williamson under 5.5 assists (+350)

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Rockets moneyline (-182): Let’s get the concerning part out of the way first. Houston has lost eight consecutive road games, including the first two of this current trip.

Even so, the Rockets are 17-14 on the road, and they have a 12-4 record as road favourites.

Some teams wield a legitimate home-court advantage, but New Orleans isn’t one of them. The Pelicans are just 11-19 at home, which includes a 4-16 record as home underdogs.

Back in December, when Dejounte Murray was still healthy and productive for the Pelicans, Houston beat New Orleans by 15-plus points in a pair of matchups.

A lot of time has passed and Houston is in a serious rut as a road team. But it’s not like the 17-win Pelicans are in good shape.

NBA SGP picks

Thompson 10+ rebounds (+112): At plus-money odds, you might want to consider this as a straight wager. The Pelicans are among the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, and I’m hoping Thompson takes advantage.

New Orleans ranks 27th in opponent rebounds per game (46.5) and rebounding rate (48.2%).

In Thompson’s first matchup against the Pelicans this year, he was still coming off the bench. The second-year small forward finished with four rebounds in 24 minutes.

One week later against New Orleans, Thompson played 31 minutes as a starter and grabbed 10 boards.

Thompson was once a Sixth Man of the Year candidate, but that fell away when he earned a concrete starting role. And recently, he’s been hauling in a ton of rebounds.

Over his past nine games, Thompson has averaged 9.9 rebounds and cashed this bet five times.

Williamson under 5.5 assists (-148): Williamson has cashed this bet in three straight games, but this isn’t a line he typically clears. And the Rockets aren’t a good matchup for him to buck that trend.

Houston allows the fifth-fewest rebounds per game to opposing power forwards (3.92), per Betting Pros.

Overall, the Rockets allow the second-fewest assists (23.1/game).

Without Murray at point guard, the Pelicans have been an assists-by-committee team. None of their active players average 5.5 assists or more.

On any given night, Williamson could be the primary passer — even though he’s typically the primary scorer, too. But this matchup isn’t calling his name.

Picks made at 9:10 p.m. ET 03/06/2025.

NCAA men’s college basketball parlay predictions March 5: Bet on UConn to win, No. 12 Wisconsin to cover

Midway through the final week of the college basketball regular season, I whipped up a +282 parlay featuring three marquee games.

The pregame narrative: The No. 12 Wisconsin Badgers have been a profitable ATS squad this year, and I like for that to continue in Wednesday’s road matchup. I’m also taking the under on an all-SEC matchup and backing the UConn Huskies to beat the No. 20 Marquette Golden Eagles.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for March 5.

NCAA basketball predictions

Full college basketball betting markets

Parlay: Wisconsin -4 | Tennessee/Ole Miss u141.5 points | UConn ML (+310)

Wisconsin -4 (-175): Wisconsin is only 5-5 on the road this year. But when the Badgers are supposed to get the job done, they usually do.

Wisconsin is 13-7 ATS as a favourite and 7-3 ATS as a road team, per Team Rankings.

The Badgers have covered a -3.5 spread in eight straight victories.

Back on Jan. 10, the Badgers bludgeoned the Minnesota Golden Gophers, 80-59, in Wisconsin. The Badgers held huge advantages in turnover margin (+7) and free throw attempts (+9).

Now it’s Minnesota’s turn to host the rivalry clash. Even with home-court advantage, I don’t see the Gophers threatening for an upset.

Wisconsin shoots 47.8% of its field goal attempts from 3-point range, which is the 18th-highest rate in NCAA Division I. Minnesota’s defence is among the worst in the country at defending the perimeter (35.6 opponent 3PT%, 283rd in the country).

Minnesota has lost four straight home games by an average of 11.3 points.

Other parlay predictions

Tennessee/Ole Miss under 141.5 points (-143): This SEC showdown is a major stylistic clash. The Rebels play a run-and-gun style of offence, while the Volunteers prefer to take things slow.

Ole Miss ranks 82nd in average offensive possession, per KenPom.com, and scores 77.9 points per game (81st in D-I).

Tennessee’s adjusted tempo is the 21st-slowest in D-I. The Vols also have the No. 1-rated defensive efficiency and allow just 61.3 PPG (7th in D-I).

So, which style will win?

I often prefer to side with the home team, but tonight I expect the visiting Vols to impose their will.

Ole Miss relies on heavy volume from the perimeter and the free-throw line to generate offence. But Tennessee allows only 16.0 free throw attempts per game (42nd in D-I), as well as the second-lowest opponent 3PT% (27.9).

Unders are 7-3 in Tennessee’s road games this year.

UConn moneyline (-175): Does Dan Hurley have enough roster talent to win a third consecutive national championship? Likely not, but his Huskies are still awfully tough to beat at home.

UConn is 12-2 at home this season, with its only losses coming against a pair of tourney-bound teams (Creighton, No. 6 St. John’s).

Familiarity is a factor in this matchup, as UConn and Marquette have faced each other four times since February 2024. Given that Marquette has the 13th-highest minutes continuity from a season ago (65.8%), that matters.

The Huskies are on a four-game win streak against the Eagles, which includes a 77-69 victory at Marquette last month.

Picks made at 4:05 p.m. ET 03/05/2025

NCAA men’s college basketball parlay predictions March 5: Bet on UConn to win, No. 12 Wisconsin to cover

Midway through the final week of the college basketball regular season, I whipped up a +282 parlay featuring three marquee games.

The pregame narrative: The No. 12 Wisconsin Badgers have been a profitable ATS squad this year, and I like for that to continue in Wednesday’s road matchup. I’m also taking the under on an all-SEC matchup and backing the UConn Huskies to beat the No. 20 Marquette Golden Eagles.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for March 5.

NCAA basketball predictions

Full college basketball betting markets

Parlay: Wisconsin -3.5 | Tennessee/Ole Miss u141.5 points | UConn ML (+282)

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Wisconsin -3.5 (-143): Wisconsin is only 5-5 on the road this year. But when the Badgers are supposed to get the job done, they usually do.

Wisconsin is 13-7 ATS as a favourite and 7-3 ATS as a road team, per Team Rankings.

The Badgers have covered a -3.5 spread in eight straight victories.

Back on Jan. 10, the Badgers bludgeoned the Minnesota Golden Gophers, 80-59, in Wisconsin. The Badgers held huge advantages in turnover margin (+7) and free throw attempts (+9).

Now it’s Minnesota’s turn to host the rivalry clash. Even with home-court advantage, I don’t see the Gophers threatening for an upset.

Wisconsin shoots 47.8% of its field goal attempts from 3-point range, which is the 18th-highest rate in NCAA Division I. Minnesota’s defence is among the worst in the country at defending the perimeter (35.6 opponent 3PT%, 283rd in the country).

Minnesota has lost four straight home games by an average of 11.3 points.

Other parlay predictions

Tennessee/Ole Miss under 141.5 points (-167): This SEC showdown is a major stylistic clash. The Rebels play a run-and-gun style of offence, while the Volunteers prefer to take things slow.

Ole Miss ranks 82nd in average offensive possession, per KenPom.com, and scores 77.9 points per game (81st in D-I).

Tennessee’s adjusted tempo is the 21st-slowest in D-I. The Vols also have the No. 1-rated defensive efficiency and allow just 61.3 PPG (7th in D-I).

So, which style will win?

I often prefer to side with the home team, but tonight I expect the visiting Vols to impose their will.

Ole Miss relies on heavy volume from the perimeter and the free-throw line to generate offence. But Tennessee allows only 16.0 free throw attempts per game (42nd in D-I), as well as the second-lowest opponent 3PT% (27.9).

Unders are 7-3 in Tennessee’s road games this year.

UConn moneyline (-186): Does Dan Hurley have enough roster talent to win a third consecutive national championship? Likely not, but his Huskies are still awfully tough to beat at home.

UConn is 12-2 at home this season, with its only losses coming against a pair of tourney-bound teams (Creighton, No. 6 St. John’s).

Familiarity is a factor in this matchup, as UConn and Marquette have faced each other four times since February 2024. Given that Marquette has the 13th-highest minutes continuity from a season ago (65.8%), that matters.

The Huskies are on a four-game win streak against the Eagles, which includes a 77-69 victory at Marquette last month.

Picks made at 3:15 p.m. ET 03/05/2025

Kings vs. Nuggets prop picks March 5: Expect Nikola Jokic to go over his assist total

With a road trip sweep in sight, the Sacramento Kings face the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night at Ball Arena.

The pregame narrative: Sacramento is 3-0 on its current road trip, but it’ll have to figure things out without a key player tonight. I’m backing this game’s biggest star, Nikola Jokic, in my best bet while also predicting a strong effort from Zach LaVine.

Check out my Kings vs. Nuggets prop picks for March 5.

Kings vs. Nuggets prop picks

Best Bet: Jokic over 9.5 assists (-150)

Jokic is an elite stat-stuffer who poses a triple-double threat every single night. Lately, he’s been making good on that threat more often than not.

Keep in mind that Jokic (28.9 points, 12.7 rebounds, 10.4 assists) is averaging a triple-double. As you might suspect, no one else is doing that. In fact, no one else is even close.

When the Nuggets face the Kings, Jokic usually has some compelling matchups in the paint against Domantas Sabonis. But Sabonis (hamstring) is out tonight, which should clear the way for Jokic to be even more effective.

This are Jokic’s past three assists outputs against the Kings:

Feb. 28, 2024: 11
Dec. 16, 2024: 13
Jan. 23, 2025: 17

Jokic’s assist total is usually the main concern in his pursuit of a triple-double. But given that Sacramento allows the ninth-most assists to opposing centres, per Betting Pros, that shouldn’t be as much of a problem.

Over his past 28 games, Jokic has cashed this bet 20 times. He’s also landed on exactly nine assists five other times.

Key stat: Dating back to Jan. 1, Jokic is averaging 11.4 assists.

Quick pick

LaVine over 23.5 points (-130): On Monday, in his first Kings game without Sabonis, LaVine had a tidy 22 points on 8-of-12 shooting (4-of-5 from 3-point range).

Surely he could’ve accomplished more if there’d been a need, but his shot volume was curtailed by the fact that the Kings were steamrolling the Dallas Mavericks.

LaVine has 20-plus points in eight of his 11 games with Sacramento. Now he’ll face a Denver squad that allows the most PPG to opposing shooting guards (23.86).

Denver might be a championship-calibre team, but it doesn’t have a championship-calibre defence.

The Nuggets allow the eighth-most points per game (116.0) and the seventh-most 3s (13.9).

Picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET 03/05/2025.

Pistons vs. Clippers SGP predictions March 5: Fade James Harden, back Detroit to win

In Wednesday’s NBA nightcap, the Detroit Pistons are on the road to face the Los Angeles Clippers.

The pregame narrative: Detroit is hot right now and should come away with a win as the more rested team tonight. I’m also fading one player per side — James Harden and Tim Hardaway Jr. — in this +310 parlay.

Check out my Pistons vs. Clippers SGP predictions for March 5.

Pistons vs. Clippers predictions

Parlay: Pistons ML | Harden under 30.5 points/rebounds | Hardaway under 2.5 threes (+310)

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Pistons moneyline (-186): After a long and winding journey, the Clippers are back at home. They haven’t played inside Intuit Dome since Feb. 12.

The road trip, which started before the all-star break, was a disaster. L.A. went 2-6 SU (0-8 ATS), losing three times as the favourite.

Playing on a back-to-back, against a surging Pistons team, isn’t exactly a soft landing for the Clippers in their homecoming.

Detroit is 8-2 as a road favourite this year. Also, the Pistons have been playing some of the best basketball in the league over their past 15 games:

12-3 record
2nd in defensive rating
3rd in net rating
+11.9 average point differential

There were some less-than-stellar opponents in that stretch, but Detroit did claim victories over the reigning-champion Celtics and these Clippers.

The 106-97 win over L.A. came on Feb. 24, with Detroit covering as a 3-point home favourite.

L.A. is 4-8 ATS when playing on zero rest this season.

SGP legs

Harden under 30.5 points/rebounds (-112): Harden had an unusually strong game as a rebounder when he last faced the Pistons, grabbing 12 boards for the first time since November.

And yet he still didn’t exceed this points/rebounds total.

I don’t expect that rebounding volume to be repeated tonight, as Detroit has the fourth-highest rebounding rate in the NBA (51.7%).

The Pistons are also tough against point guards across the board:

7th-fewest points allowed
3rd-fewest rebounds allowed
Fewest assists allowed

Harden also doesn’t clear this line regularly. In his past 16 games, he’s averaged 26.9 PR and hit this under 13 times.

Hardaway under 2.5 threes (-175): The Pistons don’t need a huge night from Hardaway to win this game. He is, at best, the fourth scoring option for Detroit on any given night.

Hardaway is also third in the team’s pecking order for 3-point shot attempts (5.8/game), and his volume is low enough that he typically falls short of this total.

On the season, Hardaway has gone under 2.5 threes in 41 of 58 games (70.7%). That includes an 0-for-5 performance against the Clippers last month.

L.A. allows the 11th-lowest opponent 3PT% in the NBA, so it’s not like this is an enticing matchup for Hardaway to exceed expectations.

Picks made at 12:50 p.m. ET 03/05/2025.

Kings vs. Nuggets prop picks March 5: Why Nikola Jokic has value to record a triple-double

With a road trip sweep in sight, the Sacramento Kings face the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night at Ball Arena.

The pregame narrative: Sacramento is 3-0 on its current road trip, but it’ll have to figure things out without a key player tonight. I’m backing this game’s biggest star, Nikola Jokic, in my best bet while also predicting a strong effort from Zach LaVine.

Check out my Kings vs. Nuggets prop picks for March 5.

Kings vs. Nuggets prop picks

Best Bet: Jokic to record a triple-double (-110)

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Jokic is a triple-double threat every single night. Lately, he’s been making good on that threat more often than not.

From Dec. 30 onward, Jokic has a triple-double in 16 of 28 games.

In that same span, he’s finished one assist/rebound shy of a triple-double eight times.

Keep in mind that Jokic (28.9 points, 12.7 rebounds, 10.4 assists) is averaging a triple-double. As you might suspect, no one else is doing that. In fact, no one else is even close.

When the Nuggets face the Kings, Jokic usually has some compelling matchups in the paint against Domantas Sabonis. But Sabonis (hamstring) is out tonight, which should clear the way for Jokic to be even more effective.

This are Jokic’s past three points/rebounds/assists outputs against the Kings:

Feb. 28, 2024: 14/14/11
Dec. 16, 2024: 20/14/13
Jan. 23, 2025: 35/22/17

Jokic’s assist total is usually the main concern in his pursuit of a triple-double. But given that Sacramento allows the ninth-most assists to opposing centres, per Betting Pros, that shouldn’t be as much of a problem.

Key stat: Jokic has a triple-double in each of his past three matchups against the Kings.

Quick pick

LaVine over 23.5 points (-125): On Monday, in his first Kings game without Sabonis, LaVine had a tidy 22 points on 8-of-12 shooting (4-of-5 from 3-point range).

Surely he could’ve accomplished more if there’d been a need, but his shot volume was curtailed by the fact that the Kings were steamrolling the Dallas Mavericks.

LaVine has 20-plus points in eight of his 11 games with Sacramento. Now he’ll face a Denver squad that allows the most PPG to opposing shooting guards (23.86).

Denver might be a championship-calibre team, but it doesn’t have a championship-calibre defence.

The Nuggets allow the eighth-most points per game (116.0) and the seventh-most 3s (13.9).

Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET 03/05/2025.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies SGP predictions March 5: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should lead OKC to victory

The Oklahoma City put their stellar road record on the line Wednesday in a matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies.

The pregame narrative: OKC is 23-7 as a visitor and I expect another win for the road favourites tonight. I’m also backing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Desmond Bane to cash in on some scoring milestones in this +270 same-game parlay.

Check out my Thunder vs. Grizzlies SGP predictions for March 5.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies predictions

Parlay: Thunder -6.5 | Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Bane 20+ points (+275)

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Thunder -6.5 (-175): It’s been a nightmare of a homestand for the Grizzlies, who’ve lost three consecutive games on last-second shots.

Suddenly, the Western Conference standings look a bit different, as Memphis has slid to the No. 4 seed (down from No. 2) in recent days.

Nothing has changed at the top, though. The 50-win Thunder are 10+ games ahead of everybody.

OKC has already asserted its dominance twice this season against Memphis, winning both prior matchups by 10+ points.

As a road team this season, the Thunder’s average point differential is +10.2 points.

Memphis is 1-8-1 ATS in its past 10 games, losing four of those outright as the favourite.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with an ankle injury, while Ja Morant has missed back-to-back games and is questionable. The vibes are bad in Grind City right now.

SGP legs

Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-195): Would I normally back someone to score 30-plus points with juice like this? Absolutely not, but Gilgeous-Alexander is having a truly special season.

32.6 PPG (leads the NBA)
30+ points in 38 of 60 games
25+ points in 53 of 60 games

The Grizzlies are considered a poor matchup for opposing point guards, as they allow the fourth-fewest points to the position, according to Betting Pros. But as far as I’m concerned, SGA is matchup-proof.

The Canadian superstar — and MVP frontrunner — has 32 and 35 points, respectively, in two games against Memphis.

SGA is the rare guard who prefers to score in the midrange and around the rim rather than beyond the arc. Without Jackson, a two-time block champ, in the paint for the Grizzlies, SGA will be further incentivized to drive the lane.

Bane 20+ points (-230): The absence of Jackson also means someone else will have to pick up the slack for Memphis in the offensive department. Why not Bane?

His reliability to cash this milestone point total has been on full display for months. Here’s what he’s accomplished since Dec. 21:

21.4 PPG
20+ points in 22 of 29 games
16+ points in 28 of 29 games

Bane has cashed this bet in four of his past five matchups against the Thunder, too — including both this season.

Though he rarely explodes past the 20-point mark, Bane is coming off a season-high 35 points. So his scoring ceiling might be higher than you think.

Picks made at 9:00 a.m. ET 03/05/2025.

NCAA men’s college basketball parlay predictions March 4: Count on BYU to cover vs. Iowa State, Auburn to beat Texas A&M

Several ranked teams are in action in the world of college basketball tonight, and a few of them are featured in my +275 parlay.

The pregame narrative: The No. 1 Auburn Tigers are on the road against the No. 22 Texas A&M Aggies and should beat Buzz Williams’ slumping squad. I also like the No. 23 BYU Cougars to cover a sizeable spread against the No. 10 Iowa State Cyclones.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for March 4.

NCAA basketball predictions

Full college basketball betting markets

Parlay: BYU +11.5 | Vanderbilt -4.5 | Auburn ML (+265)

BYU +11.5 (-175): BYU is a 9.5-point underdog, and I’m perfectly content taking those points as a straight wager. But for this parlay, I’ll tack on a bit of extra cushion at a price which is still palatable.

The Cougars have won six straight games and are 10-2 since Jan. 21.

BYU has covered a +11.5 spread in 26 of 29 games.

Iowa State is just 4-6 ATS in its past 10 games.

A whopping 47.8% of BYU’s field goal attempts come from 3-point range, which is the 17th-highest rate in NCAA Division I, per KenPom.com.

Iowa State has a strong defence, but it’s much better at defending the interior (41st in 2PT%) than the perimeter (137th in 3PT%).

The Cougars are peaking in March, which is exactly what you want to do in college basketball. After seven consecutive Quad 1 losses earlier in the season, BYU has won four in a row (including vs. Kansas and at Arizona).

BartTorvik.com projects a four-point win for Iowa State on Tuesday night.

Other parlay predictions

Vanderbilt -4.5 (-182): When you’re betting on an Arkansas Razorbacks game, nothing matters more than location, location, location.

As a road team, the Razorbacks are 3-6 SU and ATS, with an average point margin of -6.6 points.

At home, Arkansas is 12-4 SU and 8-8 ATS, with an average point margin of +13.4 points.

Last time out, Arkansas — a bubble team for March Madness — lost by 19 on the road against South Carolina, a squad with virtually no chance of reaching the NCAA tournament. Woof.

Now the Razorbacks are on the road again, this time facing a Vanderbilt Commodores team with home wins over No. 4 Tennessee, No. 15 Missouri and No. 19 Kentucky, among others.

The Commodores are 8-3 ATS as home favourites this season.

Auburn moneyline (-200): Texas A&M lost its fourth game in a row on Saturday, which caused a 10-spot drop in the Associated Press poll.

To make matters worse, it now has to host top-ranked Auburn.

The Tigers (27-2, 15-1 SEC) have locked up the top spot in the nation’s best conference. Johni Broome leads a group of six Auburn players who average 10-plus points, and the defence ranks No. 10 in effective field goal percentage.

Oh, and Auburn is 7-0 as a road favourite this year.

One of the Tigers’ few weaknesses is that they’re foul-prone, but Texas A&M only shoots 69.4% from the free-throw line (272nd in D-I). I expect another loss for the Aggies tonight.

Picks made at 3:15 p.m. ET 03/04/2025

NCAA men’s college basketball parlay predictions March 4: Count on BYU to cover vs. Iowa State, Auburn to beat Texas A&M

Several ranked teams are in action in the world of college basketball tonight, and a few of them are featured in my +275 parlay.

The pregame narrative: The No. 1 Auburn Tigers are on the road against the No. 22 Texas A&M Aggies and should beat Buzz Williams’ slumping squad. I also like the No. 23 BYU Cougars to cover a sizeable spread against the No. 10 Iowa State Cyclones.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for March 4.

NCAA basketball predictions

Full college basketball betting markets

Parlay: BYU +11.5 | Vanderbilt -3.5 | Auburn ML (+275)

BYU +11.5 (-143): BYU is a 9.5-point underdog, and I’m perfectly content taking those points as a straight wager. But for this parlay, I’ll tack on a bit of extra cushion at a price which is still palatable.

The Cougars have won six straight games and are 10-2 since Jan. 21.

BYU has covered a +11.5 spread in 26 of 29 games.

Iowa State is just 4-6 ATS in its past 10 games.

A whopping 47.8% of BYU’s field goal attempts come from 3-point range, which is the 17th-highest rate in NCAA Division I, per KenPom.com.

Iowa State has a strong defence, but it’s much better at defending the interior (41st in 2PT%) than the perimeter (137th in 3PT%).

The Cougars are peaking in March, which is exactly what you want to do in college basketball. After seven consecutive Quad 1 losses earlier in the season, BYU has won four in a row (including vs. Kansas and at Arizona).

BartTorvik.com projects a four-point win for Iowa State on Tuesday night.

Other parlay predictions

Vanderbilt -3.5 (-200): When you’re betting on an Arkansas Razorbacks game, nothing matters more than location, location, location.

As a road team, the Razorbacks are 3-6 SU and ATS, with an average point margin of -6.6 points.

At home, Arkansas is 12-4 SU and 8-8 ATS, with an average point margin of +13.4 points.

Last time out, Arkansas — a bubble team for March Madness — lost by 19 on the road against South Carolina, a squad with virtually no chance of reaching the NCAA tournament. Woof.

Now the Razorbacks are on the road again, this time facing a Vanderbilt Commodores team with home wins over No. 4 Tennessee, No. 15 Missouri and No. 19 Kentucky, among others.

The Commodores are 8-3 ATS as home favourites this season.

Auburn moneyline (-205): Texas A&M lost its fourth game in a row on Saturday, which caused a 10-spot drop in the Associated Press poll.

To make matters worse, it now has to host top-ranked Auburn.

The Tigers (27-2, 15-1 SEC) have locked up the top spot in the nation’s best conference. Johni Broome leads a group of six Auburn players who average 10-plus points, and the defence ranks No. 10 in effective field goal percentage.

Oh, and Auburn is 7-0 as a road favourite this year.

One of the Tigers’ few weaknesses is that they’re foul-prone, but Texas A&M only shoots 69.4% from the free-throw line (272nd in D-I). I expect another loss for the Aggies tonight.

Picks made at 2:15 p.m. ET 03/04/2025

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