Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

Warriors vs. Knicks prop picks March 4: Look for Steph Curry to stay hot from 3-point line

Warriors vs. Knicks prop picks

In Tuesday’s marquee NBA matchup, Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors visit the New York Knicks.

The pregame narrative: Curry at Madison Square Garden is a show I wish I had tickets to. I expect the all-time great to cash a 3s milestone, and I’m also looking for OG Anunoby to chip in as a scorer on the Knicks’ side.

Check out my Warriors vs. Knicks prop picks for March 4.

Warriors vs. Knicks prop picks

Best Bet: Curry over 4.5 threes (-150)

Curry is on a 3-point binge right now, which makes this hefty total attainable.

Here’s what Curry’s 3-point production has looked like over the past month:

  • 5.3 makes/game
  • 13.5 attempts/game
  • 39.5 3PT%
  • 5+ threes in 8 of 12 games

Curry is averaging 4.4 threes this season, which leads the NBA. Everybody knows he wants to heave it from long range, and yet he’s still generating plenty of quality looks.

Mitchell Robinson returned to the Knicks’ lineup two games ago, and the 7-footer gives them a defensive boost around the rim. That should also entice Curry to stay active from deep.

Curry has attempted 13-plus 3s in five straight games against the Knicks, averaging 5.4 makes on 14.8 attempts in that span.

Given his track record in this matchup, along with his recent high-volume run, I expect Curry to have every opportunity to cash in tonight.

Key stat: The Knicks allow the highest opponent 3PT% in the NBA (37.6).

Quick pick

Anunoby over 15.5 points (-130): Robinson isn’t the only form of reinforcements for the Knicks. Anunoby returned about two weeks ago after a six-game absence and quickly got back to game speed.

The ex-Raptor has attempted at least 15 shots in three straight games. His points totals in those matchups are 16, 19 and 23.

With Karl-Anthony Towns (personal) listed as questionable tonight, Anunoby could be called upon for another hearty offensive workload. And this matchup is built for him.

Golden State allows the second-most points per game to opposing power forwards (24.44), per Betting Pros.

Also, the Warriors yield the seventh-highest 3PT% on corner 3s (39.9%), according to Cleaning the Glass. Anunoby ranks in the 80th percentile for attempted corner 3s.

Picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET 03/04/2025.

Clippers vs. Suns SGP predictions March 4: Bet on Phoenix and Devin Booker in +310 parlay

Clippers vs. Suns predictions

A long, disappointing road trip finally comes to an end for the Los Angeles Clippers, who face the Phoenix Suns in the desert on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Suns have struggled quite a bit recently, too, but I still like the home team with a few extra points. This +310 SGP also includes prop bets on Kawhi Leonard and Devin Booker.

Check out my Clippers vs. Suns SGP for March 4.

Clippers vs. Suns predictions

Parlay: Suns +5.5 | Leonard 2+ threes | Booker 3+ threes (+310)

Embed: #110714

Suns +5.5 (-167): Phoenix and L.A. are both down in the dumps right now, and I’m not interested in backing either of them to win outright.

But this is a palatable price to back the home team, especially considering how nightmarish the Clippers’ extended road trip has been.

  • LAC is 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS in its past seven games (all on the road).
  • The Clippers haven’t played at home since Feb. 12.
  • Norman Powell, who missed the final five games in February, re-injured himself last time out and will miss Tuesday’s game.

Phoenix is 3-0 against L.A. this season, and a season sweep is definitely in play. But the Suns are just 2-8 in their past 10 games, so I’d rather bank some points than make an outright prediction.

SGP legs

Leonard 2+ threes (-265): The Suns are a plus matchup for opposing 3-point shooters, and with Powell back on the sidelines, I expect Leonard to take advantage.

Over its past 15 games, Phoenix has allowed the second-most 3s per game (15.3) on the fourth-most attempts (41.7).

Leonard is a career 39.1% shooter from deep — and he’s right on his career average this season — so efficiency isn’t the issue.

His 3-point shot volume has been a bit sporadic in the past, but it’s sitting in a nice spot over his past five games:

  • 3.0 makes
  • 6.8 attempts
  • 44.1 3PT%
  • 2+ threes in 5 of 5 games

Powell missed four of those games. I don’t view that as a coincidence.

Booker 3+ threes (-106): Although this is easily the riskiest leg of the SGP, Booker has cashed this milestone with impressive regularity in recent weeks.

  • Dating back to Jan. 22, Booker has 3+ threes in 11 of 18 games.
  • He has attempted 7+ threes in 14 of those matchups, which is a solid floor in terms of shot volume.

Bradley Beal is questionable for tonight, and if he’s absent, Booker should have even more 3-point opportunities. But either way, I know this is a matchup he can thrive in.

Booker has cashed this milestone in four straight matchups against the Clippers, shooting 19-for-36 from deep in that span.

Picks made at 10:40 a.m. ET 03/04/2025.

Warriors vs. Knicks prop picks March 4: Look for Steph Curry to stay hot from 3-point line

Warriors vs. Knicks prop picks

In Tuesday’s marquee NBA matchup, Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors visit the New York Knicks.

The pregame narrative: Curry at Madison Square Garden is a show I wish I had tickets to. I expect the all-time great to cash a 3s milestone, and I’m also looking for OG Anunoby to chip in as a scorer on the Knicks’ side.

Check out my Warriors vs. Knicks prop picks for March 4.

Warriors vs. Knicks prop picks

Best Bet: Curry 5+ threes (-130)

Embed: #110706

Curry is on a 3-point binge right now, which makes this hefty total attainable.

Here’s what Curry’s 3-point production has looked like over the past month:

  • 5.3 makes/game
  • 13.5 attempts/game
  • 39.5 3PT%
  • 5+ threes in 8 of 12 games

Curry is averaging 4.4 threes this season, which leads the NBA. Everybody knows he wants to heave it from long range, and yet he’s still generating plenty of quality looks.

Mitchell Robinson returned to the Knicks’ lineup two games ago, and the 7-footer gives them a defensive boost around the rim. That should also entice Curry to stay active from deep.

Curry has attempted 13-plus 3s in five straight games against the Knicks, averaging 5.4 makes on 14.8 attempts in that span.

Given his track record in this matchup, along with his recent high-volume run, I expect Curry to have every opportunity to cash in tonight.

Key stat: The Knicks allow the highest opponent 3PT% in the NBA (37.6).

Quick pick

Anunoby over 16.5 points (-122): Robinson isn’t the only form of reinforcements for the Knicks. Anunoby returned about two weeks ago after a six-game absence and quickly got back to game speed.

The ex-Raptor has attempted at least 15 shots in three straight games. His points totals in those matchups are 16, 19 and 23.

With Karl-Anthony Towns (personal) listed as questionable tonight, Anunoby could be called upon for another hearty offensive workload. And this matchup is built for him.

Golden State allows the second-most points per game to opposing power forwards (24.44), per Betting Pros.

Also, the Warriors yield the seventh-highest 3PT% on corner 3s (39.9%), according to Cleaning the Glass. Anunoby ranks in the 80th percentile for attempted corner 3s.

Picks made at 9:15 a.m. ET 03/04/2025.

NCAA men’s college basketball parlay predictions March 3: Fade offence in Kansas vs. Houston, back North Texas on alt spread

NCAA basketball predictions

I’m eyeing a trio of 9 p.m. ET tip-offs for Monday night’s college basketball parlay predictions.

The pregame narrative: The No. 3 Houston Cougars host the Kansas Jayhawks in a game that should feature plenty of defensive skill. I’m taking an alt under in that contest to go with alt spreads in favour of the Northwestern Wildcats and the North Texas Mean Green.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for March 3.

NCAA basketball predictions

Full college basketball betting markets

Parlay: Kansas/Houston under 136 points | Northwestern +6.5 | North Texas -5.5 (+295)

Kansas/Houston under 136.5 points (-188): In Round I of this head-to-head matchup, on Jan. 25, Houston earned a 92-86 win. But it wasn’t as much of a barn-burner as the score indicates.

That game went to double overtime, and 46 points were scored in the extra sessions, meaning there were 132 total points in regulation.

With how slow Houston plays — 361st in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.com — and how effective both teams are on defence, this is a total they should stay under on Monday.

  • Houston and Kansas rank 3rd and 6th, respectively, in adjusted defensive efficiency.
  • The Cougars have the No. 1 scoring defence in NCAA Division I (58.0 points/game).
  • Unders are 20-9 in Jayhawks games this year, including 8-3 on the road.

Kansas tends to play fast on offence, ranking 55th in average possession length. But tonight’s game will be played on Houston’s home court, and the Cougars should dictate the pace.

Other parlay predictions

Northwestern +6.5 (-182): KenPom.com and BartTorvik.com are both projecting a one-point win for the UCLA Bruins over Northwestern on Monday night. I see why this should be a close game.

UCLA is just 1-6 when playing in either the Central or Eastern time zone. And the lone win (at Indiana) came by just four points.

Northwestern would need a miracle to make the NCAA tournament, but it’s not a pushover team. The Wildcats have won three in a row, and they earned commendable victories over Maryland and Illinois earlier in the year.

Stylistically, I like this matchup a lot for Northwestern.

UCLA’s defence is built on forcing turnovers and defending the perimeter. But the Wildcats are among the best at protecting the ball (25th in turnover rate) and they hardly shoot any 3s (286th in 3-point attempts per game).

The Wildcats have covered a +6.5 spread in 11 of their past 13 games.

North Texas -5.5 (-150): The Wichita State Shockers’ glory days with Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker are in the distant past. Right now, Wichita State (17-11, 7-8 AAC) is a mediocre team in a mediocre conference.

The Shockers are 6-1 in their past seven games, but I expect them to get cut down to size against the far superior North Texas (21-6, 12-3).

The Mean Green beat Wichita State, 58-54, in Kansas at the end of January. Asking for a couple more points tonight at home doesn’t seem unreasonable.

North Texas has covered this number in every matchup during its five-game win streak. The team is 4-0-1 ATS in that span and 14-9-2 ATS overall.

Picks made at 1:35 p.m. ET 03/03/2025

Hawks vs. Grizzlies prop picks March 3: Jaren Jackson Jr. draws plus matchup vs. Atlanta

Hawks vs. Grizzlies prop picks

The Memphis Grizzlies look to rebound on Monday night against the sputtering Atlanta Hawks.

The pregame narrative: Memphis is 2-5 in its past seven, but I think a productive game from Jaren Jackson Jr. can get the home team back on track. On Atlanta’s side, I’m fading undersized centre Onyeka Okongwu.

Check out my Hawks vs. Grizzlies prop picks for March 3.

Hawks vs. Grizzlies prop picks

Best Bet: Okongwu under 18.5 points/assists (-130)

In late January, the Atlanta Hawks made a switch at centre, dropping Okongwu into the starting lineup and shifting 11-year veteran Clint Capela to the bench.

Early returns have been solid for Okongwu, who’s averaging 14.4 points and 3.1 assists (17.5 PA) through 19 starts while shooting 60.9% from the field.

One challenge for the 6-foot-8 Okongwu is that he’s undersized for the centre position. A team like the Grizzlies should be able to contain him.

Memphis has three rotation players who are 6-foot-10 or above, including Jackson (a two-time block champion) and the 7-foot-4 Zach Edey.

By the tale of the tape, Okongwu gives up about 70 pounds and six inches to Edey. That might be the greatest size disparity among starting NBA centres right now.

When the Hawks last faced the Grizzlies, Okongwu missed the game with a knee injury. Memphis neutralized Capela, holding him to just eight points and zero assists.

In fairness, Okongwu is more athletic than Capela and will probably have a better game than that. But I still think the under is the correct side of this points/assists line.

Okongwu has finished under 17.5 PA in 11 of his 19 games as a starter.

Key stat: Memphis allows the fourth-fewest assists per game to opposing centres (3.72), per Betting Pros.

Quick pick

Jackson over 23.5 points (-125): Jackson’s first matchup against the Hawks this season didn’t go well. He got into foul trouble and finished with just 13 points in 25 minutes.

I expect tonight to be different. Why?

  • The Hawks allow the fourth-most points per game to opposing power forwards (24.16).
  • Jackson attempts 51% of his shots from the midrange, which ranks in the 98th percentile in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass. Atlanta allows the fifth-highest FG% on midrange shots (45.1%).

Stylistically, this is a matchup that has Jackson’s name written all over it.

He’s also coming off a season-high 42 points and has been stellar over a 16-game stretch:

  • 24.5 PPG
  • 51.5 FG%
  • 43.7 3PT%
  • 75.2 FT%

Picks made at 1:55 p.m. ET 03/03/2025.

NCAA men’s college basketball parlay predictions March 3: Fade offence in Kansas vs. Houston, back North Texas on alt spread

NCAA basketball predictions

I’m eyeing a trio of 9 p.m. ET tip-offs for Monday night’s college basketball parlay predictions.

The pregame narrative: The No. 3 Houston Cougars host the Kansas Jayhawks in a game that should feature plenty of defensive skill. I’m taking an alt under in that contest to go with alt spreads in favour of the Northwestern Wildcats and the North Texas Mean Green.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for March 3.

NCAA basketball predictions

Full college basketball betting markets

Parlay: Kansas/Houston under 136.5 points | Northwestern +6.5 | North Texas -5.5 (+306)

Embed: #110687

Kansas/Houston under 136.5 points (-180): In Round I of this head-to-head matchup, on Jan. 25, Houston earned a 92-86 win. But it wasn’t as much of a barn-burner as the score indicates.

That game went to double overtime, and 46 points were scored in the extra sessions, meaning there were 132 total points in regulation.

With how slow Houston plays — 361st in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.com — and how effective both teams are on defence, this is a total they should stay under on Monday.

  • Houston and Kansas rank 3rd and 6th, respectively, in adjusted defensive efficiency.
  • The Cougars have the No. 1 scoring defence in NCAA Division I (58.0 points/game).
  • Unders are 20-9 in Jayhawks games this year, including 8-3 on the road.

Kansas tends to play fast on offence, ranking 55th in average possession length. But tonight’s game will be played on Houston’s home court, and the Cougars should dictate the pace.

Other parlay predictions

Northwestern +6.5 (-190): KenPom.com and BartTorvik.com are both projecting a one-point win for the UCLA Bruins over Northwestern on Monday night. I see why this should be a close game.

UCLA is just 1-6 when playing in either the Central or Eastern time zone. And the lone win (at Indiana) came by just four points.

Northwestern would need a miracle to make the NCAA tournament, but it’s not a pushover team. The Wildcats have won three in a row, and they earned commendable victories over Maryland and Illinois earlier in the year.

Stylistically, I like this matchup a lot for Northwestern.

UCLA’s defence is built on forcing turnovers and defending the perimeter. But the Wildcats are among the best at protecting the ball (25th in turnover rate) and they hardly shoot any 3s (286th in 3-point attempts per game).

The Wildcats have covered a +6.5 spread in 11 of their past 13 games.

North Texas -5.5 (-143): The Wichita State Shockers’ glory days with Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker are in the distant past. Right now, Wichita State (17-11, 7-8 AAC) is a mediocre team in a mediocre conference.

The Shockers are 6-1 in their past seven games, but I expect them to get cut down to size against the far superior North Texas (21-6, 12-3).

The Mean Green beat Wichita State, 58-54, in Kansas at the end of January. Asking for a couple more points tonight at home doesn’t seem unreasonable.

North Texas has covered this number in every matchup during its five-game win streak. The team is 4-0-1 ATS in that span and 14-9-2 ATS overall.

Picks made at 1:35 p.m. ET 03/03/2025

Hawks vs. Grizzlies prop picks March 3: Jaren Jackson Jr. draws plus matchup vs. Atlanta

Hawks vs. Grizzlies prop picks

The Memphis Grizzlies look to rebound on Monday night against the sputtering Atlanta Hawks.

The pregame narrative: Memphis is 2-5 in its past seven, but I think a productive game from Jaren Jackson Jr. can get the home team back on track. On Atlanta’s side, I’m fading undersized centre Onyeka Okongwu.

Check out my Hawks vs. Grizzlies prop picks for March 3.

Hawks vs. Grizzlies prop picks

Best Bet: Okongwu under 17.5 points/assists (-132)

Embed: #110656

In late January, the Atlanta Hawks made a switch at centre, dropping Okongwu into the starting lineup and shifting 11-year veteran Clint Capela to the bench.

Early returns have been solid for Okongwu, who’s averaging 14.4 points and 3.1 assists (17.5 PA) through 19 starts while shooting 60.9% from the field.

One challenge for the 6-foot-8 Okongwu is that he’s undersized for the centre position. A team like the Grizzlies should be able to contain him.

Memphis has three rotation players who are 6-foot-10 or above, including Jackson (a two-time block champion) and the 7-foot-4 Zach Edey.

By the tale of the tape, Okongwu gives up about 70 pounds and six inches to Edey. That might be the greatest size disparity among starting NBA centres right now.

When the Hawks last faced the Grizzlies, Okongwu missed the game with a knee injury. Memphis neutralized Capela, holding him to just eight points and zero assists.

In fairness, Okongwu is more athletic than Capela and will probably have a better game than that. But I still think the under is the correct side of this points/assists line.

Okongwu has finished under 17.5 PA in 11 of his 19 games as a starter.

Key stat: Memphis allows the fourth-fewest assists per game to opposing centres (3.72), per Betting Pros.

Quick pick

Jackson over 23.5 points (-122): Jackson’s first matchup against the Hawks this season didn’t go well. He got into foul trouble and finished with just 13 points in 25 minutes.

I expect tonight to be different. Why?

  • The Hawks allow the fourth-most points per game to opposing power forwards (24.16).
  • Jackson attempts 51% of his shots from the midrange, which ranks in the 98th percentile in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass. Atlanta allows the fifth-highest FG% on midrange shots (45.1%).

Stylistically, this is a matchup that has Jackson’s name written all over it.

He’s also coming off a season-high 42 points and has been stellar over a 16-game stretch:

  • 24.5 PPG
  • 51.5 FG%
  • 43.7 3PT%
  • 75.2 FT%

Picks made at 11:05 a.m. ET 03/03/2025.

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Pistons vs. Jazz same-game parlay predictions March 3: Expect Cunningham, Detroit to cruise in Utah

Pistons vs. Jazz predictions

The red-hot Detroit Pistons embark on a Western Conference road trip on Monday night with a matchup against the Utah Jazz.

The pregame narrative: Utah has been among the NBA’s worst teams all year, while Detroit has been one of the best in recent weeks. My +380 SGP includes an alt spread in the Pistons’ favour, as well as prop picks on Cade Cunningham and Walker Kessler.

Check out my Pistons vs. Jazz same-game parlay predictions for March 3.

Pistons vs. Jazz predictions

Parlay: Pistons -7.5 | Cunningham 25+ points | Kessler 12+ rebounds (+380)

Embed: #110651

Pistons -7.5 (-157): It’s remarkable seeing the difference a year can make.

This time last season, Detroit was 9-51, serving as the butt of most NBA-related jokes. Even Kyle Kuzma was clowning them.

But now, the Pistons look like a surefire playoff team. And they have nine wins in just their past 12 games.

  • In that 12-game span, Detroit has the third-best net rating in the NBA (+11.0) with a 9-3 ATS record.
  • Over the same timeframe, Utah is 4-8 with the 25th-ranked net rating (-6.2).

Detroit is 7-2 ATS as a road favourite this year and has covered a -7.5 spread in eight of its past 10 games overall.

I’m happy backing the team that’s flying high and has a rest advantage (the Jazz played at home last night).

SGP legs

Cunningham 25+ points (-152): The primary culprit for the Jazz’s wheels falling off is their utter absenteeism on defence.

Over its past 15 games, Utah has allowed the second-most points (122.3/game) and the second-most 3s (15.9/game) while forcing the second-fewest turnovers (11.1/game).

Cunningham’s main weakness on offence is that he’s turnover-prone. But that shouldn’t matter as much against the Jazz.

  • Detroit’s all-star point guard has averaged 27.2 PPG over his past 18 and cashed this bet 11 times.
  • He has 25+ points in all five career matchups vs. Utah, including a 33-point performance back in December.

Utah allows the third most PPG to opposing point guards (25.52), per Betting Pros.

Kessler 12+ rebounds (-182): This is too much juice to bet as a straight wager, but it vaults our SGP from +160 to +380. Based on how active Kessler is on the glass, that seems like value to me.

The 7-footer is averaging 12.2 rebounds this season, which ranks fifth among all NBA players.

And he’s been doing his best work since the third week of January:

  • 14.1 RPG
  • 12+ rebounds in 11 of 14 games
  • 13+ rebounds in 4 straight

Detroit has the league’s fourth-highest rebounding rate (51.7%), but that didn’t stop Kessler from hauling in 12 rebounds during their matchup on Dec. 19.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET 03/03/2025.

Clippers vs. Lakers prop picks March 2: Why Luka Doncic, James Harden are worth backing

Clippers vs. Lakers prop picks

The NBA’s Sunday night twin bill features an all-L.A. showdown between the Clippers and Lakers.

The pregame narrative: These teams met two nights ago at Crypto.com Arena, and now they’re running it back at the same venue. Look for Luka Doncic, James Harden and Ivica Zubac all to make their mark on this game.

Check out my Clippers vs. Lakers prop picks for March 2.

Clippers vs. Lakers prop picks

Best bet: Zubac over 12.5 rebounds (-118)

Two nights after Zubac grabbed 16 rebounds against the Lakers, he’s got plus-money odds to go over 12.5. Sign me up for that.

  • The Lakers allow the seventh-most rebounds to opposing centres (15.6/game), per Betting Pros.
  • LAL ranks 20th in rebounding rate (49.3%).
  • Zubac has 64 rebounds in his past four matchups against the Lakers, clearing this prop three times.

Remember, Anthony Davis isn’t a Laker anymore. For as talented as Luka Doncic is, he doesn’t make up the difference for L.A. on the glass.

The Lakers are also expected to miss Rui Hachimura (5.2 RPG) and Austin Reaves (4.2), which cuts down on the volume of capable rebounders Zubac will have to deal with.

Speaking of capable rebounders, Zubac is among the very best in the NBA.

His 12.6 RPG average ranks fourth among all players, ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama, and even AD.

The ex-Laker is enjoying a career year, and I expect him to continue making it hurt for his former team.

Key stat: Zubac has averaged 14.3 rebounds in his past six matchups against the Lakers (since April 2023).

Quick pick

Harden over 8.5 assists (-150): There’s more juice on this prop than I’d prefer, but it’s still in a playable range under the circumstances.

Harden has gone over 8.5 assists in eight straight games against the Lakers, including in all three matchups this season.

I expect him to be a particularly active passer tonight with Norman Powell (knee) probable to return after a five-game absence.

In his past 25 games alongside Powell, Harden has averaged 8.8 assists and cashed this bet 15 times.

Doncic over 29.5 points (-110): Doncic has put up some dreadful shooting numbers for the Lakers, and you’d probably expect that to be a reason to fade him. Actually, I’m looking at it the opposite way.

Doncic is shooting just 37.3% from the field and 24.1% from beyond the arc in his first seven games for L.A. But his shot volume is robust, and that’s not going to change.

  • Over his past four games, Doncic has averaged 20.3 field goal attempts. He also has 7+ attempted 3s in all seven games as a Laker.
  • With his shooting woes, Doncic has resorted to drawing more foul calls. He’s attempted 8+ free throws in four straight games.

Despite an underwhelming 40.9 FG% on Friday, Doncic finished with 31 points against the Clippers.

If shots start to fall at a more typical clip, he’ll be around this number routinely — especially with Reaves out.

Picks made at 2:20 p.m. ET 03/02/2025.

Clippers vs. Lakers prop picks March 2: Why Luka Doncic, James Harden are worth backing

Clippers vs. Lakers prop picks

The NBA’s Sunday night twin bill features an all-L.A. showdown between the Clippers and Lakers.

The pregame narrative: These teams met two nights ago at Crypto.com Arena, and now they’re running it back at the same venue. Look for Luka Doncic, James Harden and Ivica Zubac all to make their mark on this game.

Check out my Clippers vs. Lakers prop picks for March 2.

Clippers vs. Lakers prop picks

Best bet: Zubac over 12.5 rebounds (+104)

Embed: #110625

Two nights after Zubac grabbed 16 rebounds against the Lakers, he’s got plus-money odds to go over 12.5. Sign me up for that.

  • The Lakers allow the seventh-most rebounds to opposing centres (15.6/game), per Betting Pros.
  • LAL ranks 20th in rebounding rate (49.3%).
  • Zubac has 64 rebounds in his past four matchups against the Lakers, clearing this prop three times.

Remember, Anthony Davis isn’t a Laker anymore. For as talented as Luka Doncic is, he doesn’t make up the difference for L.A. on the glass.

The Lakers are also expected to miss Rui Hachimura (5.2 RPG) and Austin Reaves (4.2), which cuts down on the volume of capable rebounders Zubac will have to deal with.

Speaking of capable rebounders, Zubac is among the very best in the NBA.

His 12.6 RPG average ranks fourth among all players, ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama, and even AD.

The ex-Laker is enjoying a career year, and I expect him to continue making it hurt for his former team.

Key stat: Zubac has averaged 14.3 rebounds in his past six matchups against the Lakers (since April 2023).

Quick pick

Harden over 8.5 assists (-136): There’s more juice on this prop than I’d prefer, but it’s still in a playable range under the circumstances.

Harden has gone over 8.5 assists in eight straight games against the Lakers, including in all three matchups this season.

I expect him to be a particularly active passer tonight with Norman Powell (knee) probable to return after a five-game absence.

In his past 25 games alongside Powell, Harden has averaged 8.8 assists and cashed this bet 15 times.

Doncic over 27.5 points (-127): Doncic has put up some dreadful shooting numbers for the Lakers, and you’d probably expect that to be a reason to fade him. Actually, I’m looking at it the opposite way.

Doncic is shooting just 37.3% from the field and 24.1% from beyond the arc in his first seven games for L.A. But his shot volume is robust, and that’s not going to change.

  • Over his past four games, Doncic has averaged 20.3 field goal attempts. He also has 7+ attempted 3s in all seven games as a Laker.
  • With his shooting woes, Doncic has resorted to drawing more foul calls. He’s attempted 8+ free throws in four straight games.

Despite an underwhelming 40.9 FG% on Friday, Doncic finished with 31 points against the Clippers.

If shots start to fall at a more typical clip, he’ll be clearing this number routinely — especially with Reaves out.

Picks made at 1:00 p.m. ET 03/02/2025.