The Memphis Grizzlies look to rebound on Monday night against the sputtering Atlanta Hawks.
The pregame narrative: Memphis is 2-5 in its past seven, but I think a productive game from Jaren Jackson Jr. can get the home team back on track. On Atlanta’s side, I’m fading undersized centre Onyeka Okongwu.
Check out my Hawks vs. Grizzlies prop picks for March 3.
Hawks vs. Grizzlies prop picks
Best Bet: Okongwu under 17.5 points/assists (-132)
In late January, the Atlanta Hawks made a switch at centre, dropping Okongwu into the starting lineup and shifting 11-year veteran Clint Capela to the bench.
Early returns have been solid for Okongwu, who’s averaging 14.4 points and 3.1 assists (17.5 PA) through 19 starts while shooting 60.9% from the field.
One challenge for the 6-foot-8 Okongwu is that he’s undersized for the centre position. A team like the Grizzlies should be able to contain him.
Memphis has three rotation players who are 6-foot-10 or above, including Jackson (a two-time block champion) and the 7-foot-4 Zach Edey.
By the tale of the tape, Okongwu gives up about 70 pounds and six inches to Edey. That might be the greatest size disparity among starting NBA centres right now.
When the Hawks last faced the Grizzlies, Okongwu missed the game with a knee injury. Memphis neutralized Capela, holding him to just eight points and zero assists.
In fairness, Okongwu is more athletic than Capela and will probably have a better game than that. But I still think the under is the correct side of this points/assists line.
Okongwu has finished under 17.5 PA in 11 of his 19 games as a starter.
Key stat: Memphis allows the fourth-fewest assists per game to opposing centres (3.72), per Betting Pros.
Quick pick
Jackson over 23.5 points (-122): Jackson’s first matchup against the Hawks this season didn’t go well. He got into foul trouble and finished with just 13 points in 25 minutes.
I expect tonight to be different. Why?
- The Hawks allow the fourth-most points per game to opposing power forwards (24.16).
- Jackson attempts 51% of his shots from the midrange, which ranks in the 98th percentile in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass. Atlanta allows the fifth-highest FG% on midrange shots (45.1%).
Stylistically, this is a matchup that has Jackson’s name written all over it.
He’s also coming off a season-high 42 points and has been stellar over a 16-game stretch:
- 24.5 PPG
- 51.5 FG%
- 43.7 3PT%
- 75.2 FT%
Picks made at 11:05 a.m. ET 03/03/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.