I’m eyeing a trio of 9 p.m. ET tip-offs for Monday night’s college basketball parlay predictions.
The pregame narrative: The No. 3 Houston Cougars host the Kansas Jayhawks in a game that should feature plenty of defensive skill. I’m taking an alt under in that contest to go with alt spreads in favour of the Northwestern Wildcats and the North Texas Mean Green.
Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for March 3.
NCAA basketball predictions
Full college basketball betting markets
Parlay: Kansas/Houston under 136 points | Northwestern +6.5 | North Texas -5.5 (+295)
Kansas/Houston under 136.5 points (-188): In Round I of this head-to-head matchup, on Jan. 25, Houston earned a 92-86 win. But it wasn’t as much of a barn-burner as the score indicates.
That game went to double overtime, and 46 points were scored in the extra sessions, meaning there were 132 total points in regulation.
With how slow Houston plays — 361st in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.com — and how effective both teams are on defence, this is a total they should stay under on Monday.
- Houston and Kansas rank 3rd and 6th, respectively, in adjusted defensive efficiency.
- The Cougars have the No. 1 scoring defence in NCAA Division I (58.0 points/game).
- Unders are 20-9 in Jayhawks games this year, including 8-3 on the road.
Kansas tends to play fast on offence, ranking 55th in average possession length. But tonight’s game will be played on Houston’s home court, and the Cougars should dictate the pace.
Other parlay predictions
Northwestern +6.5 (-182): KenPom.com and BartTorvik.com are both projecting a one-point win for the UCLA Bruins over Northwestern on Monday night. I see why this should be a close game.
UCLA is just 1-6 when playing in either the Central or Eastern time zone. And the lone win (at Indiana) came by just four points.
Northwestern would need a miracle to make the NCAA tournament, but it’s not a pushover team. The Wildcats have won three in a row, and they earned commendable victories over Maryland and Illinois earlier in the year.
Stylistically, I like this matchup a lot for Northwestern.
UCLA’s defence is built on forcing turnovers and defending the perimeter. But the Wildcats are among the best at protecting the ball (25th in turnover rate) and they hardly shoot any 3s (286th in 3-point attempts per game).
The Wildcats have covered a +6.5 spread in 11 of their past 13 games.
North Texas -5.5 (-150): The Wichita State Shockers’ glory days with Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker are in the distant past. Right now, Wichita State (17-11, 7-8 AAC) is a mediocre team in a mediocre conference.
The Shockers are 6-1 in their past seven games, but I expect them to get cut down to size against the far superior North Texas (21-6, 12-3).
The Mean Green beat Wichita State, 58-54, in Kansas at the end of January. Asking for a couple more points tonight at home doesn’t seem unreasonable.
North Texas has covered this number in every matchup during its five-game win streak. The team is 4-0-1 ATS in that span and 14-9-2 ATS overall.
Picks made at 1:35 p.m. ET 03/03/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.