In what should be the highest-scoring game of the night, the Atlanta Hawks host the Indiana Pacers on Thursday.
The pregame narrative: Backing the over on a teased-down total is the first leg in my +320 SGP. I’m expecting a pair of lesser-known starters — Dyson Daniels and Aaron Nesmith — to play a role in the scoring surge.
Check out my Pacers vs. Hawks SGP predictions for March 6.
Pacers vs. Hawks predictions
Parlay: Over 241.5 points | Daniels over 14.5 points | Nesmith over 1.5 threes (+320)
Over 241.5 points (-186): Atlanta is an overs machine, and that’s especially true at home.
- Overs are 37-25 (59.7%) in Hawks games overall this year and 19-10 (65.5%) at State Farm Arena.
- Overs are 5-1 in Atlanta’s past six games. The average total in those games was 246.5 points.
You don’t always have to have a strong offence to cash overs. Sometimes, being fast is good enough.
Atlanta ranks 25th in home offensive rating (110.7) and first in home pace (105.23 possessions/game).
Indiana is hitting overs at a better-than-50.0% rate (32-26-2), and each of its past four road games have landed on the over.
When the Pacers and Hawks met in Indiana last month, they cruised by this total in a 132-127 win for Indiana.
NBA SGP picks
Daniels over 14.5 points (-112): Daniels has been coming on strong as a scorer, and it started with a stellar effort against the Pacers on Feb. 1:
- 23 points
- 8-of-15 points
- 2-of-3 threes
- 5-of-6 free throws
From that game onward, Daniels has averaged 15.9 points and cashed this bet in eight of 14 games. He’s also scored 10-plus points in all 14 games, so the floor has been quite high.
Indiana doesn’t give up a lot of 3s, but that’s not really Daniels’ game anyway. He likes to attack from the short mid-range and around the rim.
The Pacers’ defence allows the seventh-highest field goal percentage (47.4%) in the NBA.
Nesmith over 1.5 threes (-150): He’s not a headliner for the Pacers, but Nesmith fills a solid role as an athletic forward who can shoot well from outside.
Nesmith has really been letting it fly lately, and the results suggest he should keep firing.
- Over his past eight games, Nesmith is averaging 2.4 makes on 42.2% 3-point shooting.
- He has 2+ threes in 6 of 8 games.
- Back on Feb. 1, Nesmith went 2-for-5 from deep against the Hawks.
Against a lightning-quick team like the Hawks, there should be enough possessions for Nesmith to get a solid volume of shots up.
As long as he stays in the range of five or six attempted 3s, he’s plenty capable of cashing this wager.
Picks made at 10:40 a.m. ET 03/06/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.