On Thursday night, the Houston Rockets and New Orleans Pelicans embark on the first leg of a home-and-home with a matchup at Smoothie King Center.
The pregame narrative: Zion Williamson is expected to do it all for the Pelicans right now, but I’ve found a way to fade him tonight. On the Rockets’ side, I’m backing Amen Thompson in a plus-money play.
Check out my Rockets vs. Pelicans SGP predictions for March 6.
Rockets vs. Pelicans predictions
Parlay: Rockets ML | Thompson 10+ rebounds | Williamson under 5.5 assists (+350)
Rockets moneyline (-182): Let’s get the concerning part out of the way first. Houston has lost eight consecutive road games, including the first two of this current trip.
Even so, the Rockets are 17-14 on the road, and they have a 12-4 record as road favourites.
Some teams wield a legitimate home-court advantage, but New Orleans isn’t one of them. The Pelicans are just 11-19 at home, which includes a 4-16 record as home underdogs.
Back in December, when Dejounte Murray was still healthy and productive for the Pelicans, Houston beat New Orleans by 15-plus points in a pair of matchups.
A lot of time has passed and Houston is in a serious rut as a road team. But it’s not like the 17-win Pelicans are in good shape.
NBA SGP picks
Thompson 10+ rebounds (+112): At plus-money odds, you might want to consider this as a straight wager. The Pelicans are among the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, and I’m hoping Thompson takes advantage.
New Orleans ranks 27th in opponent rebounds per game (46.5) and rebounding rate (48.2%).
- In Thompson’s first matchup against the Pelicans this year, he was still coming off the bench. The second-year small forward finished with four rebounds in 24 minutes.
- One week later against New Orleans, Thompson played 31 minutes as a starter and grabbed 10 boards.
Thompson was once a Sixth Man of the Year candidate, but that fell away when he earned a concrete starting role. And recently, he’s been hauling in a ton of rebounds.
Over his past nine games, Thompson has averaged 9.9 rebounds and cashed this bet five times.
Williamson under 5.5 assists (-148): Williamson has cashed this bet in three straight games, but this isn’t a line he typically clears. And the Rockets aren’t a good matchup for him to buck that trend.
- Houston allows the fifth-fewest rebounds per game to opposing power forwards (3.92), per Betting Pros.
- Overall, the Rockets allow the second-fewest assists (23.1/game).
Without Murray at point guard, the Pelicans have been an assists-by-committee team. None of their active players average 5.5 assists or more.
On any given night, Williamson could be the primary passer — even though he’s typically the primary scorer, too. But this matchup isn’t calling his name.
Picks made at 9:10 p.m. ET 03/06/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.