Several ranked teams are in action in the world of college basketball tonight, and a few of them are featured in my +275 parlay.
The pregame narrative: The No. 1 Auburn Tigers are on the road against the No. 22 Texas A&M Aggies and should beat Buzz Williams’ slumping squad. I also like the No. 23 BYU Cougars to cover a sizeable spread against the No. 10 Iowa State Cyclones.
Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for March 4.
NCAA basketball predictions
Full college basketball betting markets
Parlay: BYU +11.5 | Vanderbilt -3.5 | Auburn ML (+275)
BYU +11.5 (-143): BYU is a 9.5-point underdog, and I’m perfectly content taking those points as a straight wager. But for this parlay, I’ll tack on a bit of extra cushion at a price which is still palatable.
- The Cougars have won six straight games and are 10-2 since Jan. 21.
- BYU has covered a +11.5 spread in 26 of 29 games.
- Iowa State is just 4-6 ATS in its past 10 games.
A whopping 47.8% of BYU’s field goal attempts come from 3-point range, which is the 17th-highest rate in NCAA Division I, per KenPom.com.
Iowa State has a strong defence, but it’s much better at defending the interior (41st in 2PT%) than the perimeter (137th in 3PT%).
The Cougars are peaking in March, which is exactly what you want to do in college basketball. After seven consecutive Quad 1 losses earlier in the season, BYU has won four in a row (including vs. Kansas and at Arizona).
BartTorvik.com projects a four-point win for Iowa State on Tuesday night.
Other parlay predictions
Vanderbilt -3.5 (-200): When you’re betting on an Arkansas Razorbacks game, nothing matters more than location, location, location.
As a road team, the Razorbacks are 3-6 SU and ATS, with an average point margin of -6.6 points.
At home, Arkansas is 12-4 SU and 8-8 ATS, with an average point margin of +13.4 points.
Last time out, Arkansas — a bubble team for March Madness — lost by 19 on the road against South Carolina, a squad with virtually no chance of reaching the NCAA tournament. Woof.
Now the Razorbacks are on the road again, this time facing a Vanderbilt Commodores team with home wins over No. 4 Tennessee, No. 15 Missouri and No. 19 Kentucky, among others.
The Commodores are 8-3 ATS as home favourites this season.
Auburn moneyline (-205): Texas A&M lost its fourth game in a row on Saturday, which caused a 10-spot drop in the Associated Press poll.
To make matters worse, it now has to host top-ranked Auburn.
The Tigers (27-2, 15-1 SEC) have locked up the top spot in the nation’s best conference. Johni Broome leads a group of six Auburn players who average 10-plus points, and the defence ranks No. 10 in effective field goal percentage.
Oh, and Auburn is 7-0 as a road favourite this year.
One of the Tigers’ few weaknesses is that they’re foul-prone, but Texas A&M only shoots 69.4% from the free-throw line (272nd in D-I). I expect another loss for the Aggies tonight.
Picks made at 2:15 p.m. ET 03/04/2025
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.