Midway through the final week of the college basketball regular season, I whipped up a +282 parlay featuring three marquee games.
The pregame narrative: The No. 12 Wisconsin Badgers have been a profitable ATS squad this year, and I like for that to continue in Wednesday’s road matchup. I’m also taking the under on an all-SEC matchup and backing the UConn Huskies to beat the No. 20 Marquette Golden Eagles.
Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for March 5.
NCAA basketball predictions
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Parlay: Wisconsin -4 | Tennessee/Ole Miss u141.5 points | UConn ML (+310)
Wisconsin -4 (-175): Wisconsin is only 5-5 on the road this year. But when the Badgers are supposed to get the job done, they usually do.
- Wisconsin is 13-7 ATS as a favourite and 7-3 ATS as a road team, per Team Rankings.
- The Badgers have covered a -3.5 spread in eight straight victories.
Back on Jan. 10, the Badgers bludgeoned the Minnesota Golden Gophers, 80-59, in Wisconsin. The Badgers held huge advantages in turnover margin (+7) and free throw attempts (+9).
Now it’s Minnesota’s turn to host the rivalry clash. Even with home-court advantage, I don’t see the Gophers threatening for an upset.
Wisconsin shoots 47.8% of its field goal attempts from 3-point range, which is the 18th-highest rate in NCAA Division I. Minnesota’s defence is among the worst in the country at defending the perimeter (35.6 opponent 3PT%, 283rd in the country).
Minnesota has lost four straight home games by an average of 11.3 points.
Other parlay predictions
Tennessee/Ole Miss under 141.5 points (-143): This SEC showdown is a major stylistic clash. The Rebels play a run-and-gun style of offence, while the Volunteers prefer to take things slow.
- Ole Miss ranks 82nd in average offensive possession, per KenPom.com, and scores 77.9 points per game (81st in D-I).
- Tennessee’s adjusted tempo is the 21st-slowest in D-I. The Vols also have the No. 1-rated defensive efficiency and allow just 61.3 PPG (7th in D-I).
So, which style will win?
I often prefer to side with the home team, but tonight I expect the visiting Vols to impose their will.
Ole Miss relies on heavy volume from the perimeter and the free-throw line to generate offence. But Tennessee allows only 16.0 free throw attempts per game (42nd in D-I), as well as the second-lowest opponent 3PT% (27.9).
Unders are 7-3 in Tennessee’s road games this year.
UConn moneyline (-175): Does Dan Hurley have enough roster talent to win a third consecutive national championship? Likely not, but his Huskies are still awfully tough to beat at home.
UConn is 12-2 at home this season, with its only losses coming against a pair of tourney-bound teams (Creighton, No. 6 St. John’s).
Familiarity is a factor in this matchup, as UConn and Marquette have faced each other four times since February 2024. Given that Marquette has the 13th-highest minutes continuity from a season ago (65.8%), that matters.
The Huskies are on a four-game win streak against the Eagles, which includes a 77-69 victory at Marquette last month.
Picks made at 4:05 p.m. ET 03/05/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.