Jordan Horrobin

We’re one week away from the first round of March Madness, but there’s plenty of conference tournament action to cover first.

The pregame narrative: On Thursday night, I expect the Clemson Tigers and Villanova Wildcats to cover alt spreads in their respective tournament matchups. Elsewhere, there’s one particular SEC showdown that has major shootout potential.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for March 13.

NCAA basketball predictions

Full college basketball betting markets

Parlay: Villanova +10.5 | Clemson -4.5 | Oklahoma/Kentucky o158.5 points (+306)

Embed: #111230

Villanova +10.5 (-195): Villanova is playing for its postseason life and needs at least another win or two to have a shot at cracking the March Madness field.

I’m not sure that’ll happen, but I do expect the Wildcats to play with the hunger and verve that put them on the cusp of contention.

Since Feb. 5, Villanova is 7-3 SU and ATS, with wins over No. 6 St. John’s, No. 25 Marquette and Xavier.

The Wildcats did lose to the UConn Huskies in that span, but only by a seven-point margin. Villanova has covered a +10.5 spread in 29 of 32 games this season.

KenPom.com and BartTorvik.com are both projecting a two-point win for UConn tonight.

Other parlay predictions

Clemson -4.5 (-167): I’m high on the Tigers heading into March Madness, and I recently picked them to win the ACC tournament.

Why? After making the Elite Eight last year, Clemson brought back a ton of talent. The program has a 46.3% minutes continuity, which ranks 90th out of 364 schools.

Also, the Tigers are 14-1 (12-3 ATS) since Jan. 11, and their only loss came in triple overtime. In that span, they beat No. 1 Duke — the only ACC school to do so — and covered this spread in 13 of 14 victories.

Now the team faces the SMU Mustangs, who Clemson beat by 10 points on Feb. 22. The Tigers led the Mustangs for the entire second half.

Since its loss to Clemson, SMU is just 1-4-1 ATS.

Oklahoma/Kentucky over 158.5 points (-150): The Oklahoma Sooners and Kentucky Wildcats combined for 165 points in their lone matchup this season, and KenPom projects another 165-point total tonight. That’s part of the reason I like this teased-down over.

Another reason is that both teams should be willing to play this game at a blistering pace. Kentucky and Oklahoma rank 42nd and 66th in average offensive possession length.

• The Wildcats have cleared this total in 6 of 7 games since Feb. 15

• The average total in the Sooners’ past six games is 166.7 points.

Oklahoma ranks ninth in NCAA Division I in free throw percentage (79.3%) while ranking 39th in free throw attempts (22.2/game).

Kentucky has five players averaging 10-plus points and ranks third in the country in scoring (85.8 PPG).

Picks made at 2:05 p.m. ET 03/13/2025

From now through Sunday, all 31 conferences in NCAA Division I men’s basketball will crown their respective champions. In fact, several already have.

In the run-up to Selection Sunday, there are five high-major conferences whose tournaments have the toughest — and most exciting — roads: ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC.

Check out my NCAA basketball conference tournament predictions for the top college tourneys, which wrap up on March 15 and 16.

NCAA conference tournament predictions

The ACC might have college basketball’s top team but the conference is viewed as the weakest of the five high-majors.

As of 3 p.m. on March 11, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi only projected three ACC teams in his March Madness bracket. Each of the other high-majors had at least five.

KenPom.com also looks down on the ACC relative to the other powerhouse conferences. The ACC ranks fifth in terms of average expected net rating in D-I.

A lack of depth helps explain why the ACC tournament favourites, the Duke Blue Devils, have the shortest odds of any high-major tournament hopeful.

Embed: #111164

ACC tournament prediction

The favourites: Duke Blue Devils (-360)
The pick: Clemson Tigers (+550)
ACC tournament markets

Duke is probably going to win the ACC tournament, but if you want to fade Cooper Flagg and co., this is the best option I can think of.

• Clemson is the only ACC squad that has beaten Duke this season. The Tigers took down the Blue Devils, 77-71, at home on Feb. 8.

• The Tigers have a 46.3% minutes continuity from last year, per KenPom, which ranks 90th in D-I. Last season’s squad reached the Elite Eight as a 6-seed.

• Duke is the tallest team in D-I (based on average height), but Clemson has the size to at least hold its own. Both of the Tigers’ frontcourt starters tip the scales at 240-plus pounds.

Clemson ranks inside the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, so there’s some nice balance with this group. Also, the Tigers are 14-1 since Jan. 11 — and the lone loss came in triple overtime.

Big East tournament pick

The favourites: St. John’s Red Storm (+140)
The pick: St. John’s Red Storm (+140)
Big East tournament markets

How is St. John’s a top-10 team in the country when it ranks 252nd in effective field goal percentage?

Because the defence is just that good.

The Red Storm stays true to its name on the defensive end, swarming opponents and putting up some great metrics relative to the rest of the D-I field:

• 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency
• 8th in block rate
• 16th in turnover rate
• 19th in FG%

Rick Pitino’s squad went 18-2 in the Big East, and its two losses came by a combined three points (both of which were on the road).

St. John’s plays some of its home games at Madison Square Garden and should feel right at home this week.

NCAA conference tournament predictions: Big Ten

The favourites: Michigan State Spartans (+250)
The pick: Michigan State Spartans (+250)
Big Ten tournament markets

Despite being the favourite, Michigan State only holds a 28.57% implied probability to win the Big Ten tournament. That’s an indicator for how deep this field is.

Still, how can you not like Sparty? The team finished the regular season on a seven-game win streak — and all seven wins came against Quad 1 foes.

I looked at the Wisconsin Badgers, who I think could be dangerous in March Madness, but they’re the 5-seed in this tourney and thus have an additional game to play. Michigan State only needs three wins to claim the conference title.

Michigan State epitomizes hustle. During conference play, the Spartans ranked first in offensive rebounding rate while allowing the lowest offensive rebound rate at the other end.

Big 12 tournament prediction

The favourites: Houston Cougars (-112)
The pick: Iowa State Cyclones (+550)
Big 12 tournament markets

Iowa State won the Big 12 tourney last year, and plenty of key pieces from that squad returned for 2024-25.

The Cyclones have 56.1% minutes continuity from last year (35th in D-I), aided by a trio of returning starters.

Their two main competitors in the conference are Houston and the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Cyclones’ results against both squads are encouraging.

• Iowa State played Houston tough last month, trailing by two in the final five minutes before eventually falling, 68-59, on the road.

• In January, Iowa State earned an 85-84 overtime win on the road against Texas Tech.

Getting to the free-throw line is key for the Cyclones. They average 23.3 attempts (22nd in D-I) and hit their free throws at a 75.7% clip (57th).

SEC tournament best bet

The favourites: Auburn Tigers (+150)
The pick: Florida Gators (+250)
SEC tournament markets

After Auburn dropped back-to-back games to close out the regular season, I’m looking elsewhere for a less vulnerable team in conference tourney play.

Enter the Gators, who are 27-4 on the season. All four losses came against Quad 1 opponents, and three of those were on the road.

Florida’s main challengers in an absolutely loaded SEC tournament figure to be Auburn, the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Tennessee Volunteers. The Gators went 3-1 against those squads during the regular season.

Also, Florida is the only SEC team to rank in the top three in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency during conference play.

NCAA conference tournament predictions made at 4:00 p.m. on 03/11/25.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs meet the No. 19 Saint Mary’s Gaels in the West Coast Conference tournament final on Tuesday night, and that marquee matchup is the backbone of my college basketball parlay.

The pregame narrative: I’m happy to bank some points with Saint Mary’s after how it handled business against Gonzaga during the regular season. I also like an alt under in the UCF Knights vs. Utah Utes matchup.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for March 11.

NCAA basketball predictions

Full college basketball betting markets

Parlay: Saint Mary’s +4.5 | Lamar +4.5 | UCF/Utah u160.5 points (+325)

Embed: #111159

Saint Mary’s +4.5 (-130): Saint Mary’s should be feeling the disrespect. Despite beating Gonzaga at home and on the road this year, the Gaels are underdogs in the neutral-site WCC tournament final.

Both teams will be in the March Madness field, so Tuesday’s stakes are purely for seeding. And on the Gaels’ side, it’s an opportunity to once again prove the haters wrong.

Saint Mary’s is 4-1 against Gonzaga in their past five meetings, winning each of those games outright as an underdog. That includes last year’s conference tournament final in Las Vegas.

Keep in mind that I’m not even asking for an “upset” win. I’m just looking for the Gaels to cover +4.5, which they have in 31 of 32 games this season.

Other parlay predictions

Lamar +4.5 (-200): Last Monday, the Lamar Cardinals and Nicholls State Colonels closed out the regular season with an ugly game that finished 65-53 in Lamar’s favour.

These teams both rank in the bottom 75 in NCAA Division I in effective field goal percentage, and I could see another rock fight tonight in the Southland Conference semifinal.

Regardless of the point total, though, Lamar should be able to hang around.

• Lamar is 4-0 vs. Nicholls since the start of last season.

• Lamar is 9-0 ATS vs. Nicholls since February 2020.

• The Cardinals are 9-6-1 ATS this year and have covered a +4.5 spread in 12 of their past 13 games.

Nicholls has failed to cover a -4.5 spread in five of its past eight games.

UCF/Utah under 160.5 points (-167): Both teams play fast, ranking in the top 85 in offensive possession length, per KenPom.com. That should lead to a lot of points, right?

A high volume of possessions is great, but it won’t lead to a huge score if both sides struggle to actually put the ball in the hoop.

• UCF ranks outside the top 200 in eFG%, 2PT% and 3PT%. The Knights average 78.6 points per game.

• Utah ranks 248th in turnover rate and has the country’s eighth-lowest FT%. The Utes average 75.4 PPG.

In their lone matchup this season, UCF and Utah combined for 148 points in a narrow victory for the Knights.

Unders are 5-3 in UCF’s past eight games, and six of those eight games went under this total.

Picks made at 1:25 p.m. ET 03/11/2025