The Gonzaga Bulldogs meet the No. 19 Saint Mary’s Gaels in the West Coast Conference tournament final on Tuesday night, and that marquee matchup is the backbone of my college basketball parlay.
The pregame narrative: I’m happy to bank some points with Saint Mary’s after how it handled business against Gonzaga during the regular season. I also like an alt under in the UCF Knights vs. Utah Utes matchup.
Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for March 11.
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Parlay: Saint Mary’s +4.5 | Lamar +4.5 | UCF/Utah u160.5 points (+325)
Saint Mary’s +4.5 (-130): Saint Mary’s should be feeling the disrespect. Despite beating Gonzaga at home and on the road this year, the Gaels are underdogs in the neutral-site WCC tournament final.
Both teams will be in the March Madness field, so Tuesday’s stakes are purely for seeding. And on the Gaels’ side, it’s an opportunity to once again prove the haters wrong.
Saint Mary’s is 4-1 against Gonzaga in their past five meetings, winning each of those games outright as an underdog. That includes last year’s conference tournament final in Las Vegas.
Keep in mind that I’m not even asking for an “upset” win. I’m just looking for the Gaels to cover +4.5, which they have in 31 of 32 games this season.
Other parlay predictions
Lamar +4.5 (-200): Last Monday, the Lamar Cardinals and Nicholls State Colonels closed out the regular season with an ugly game that finished 65-53 in Lamar’s favour.
These teams both rank in the bottom 75 in NCAA Division I in effective field goal percentage, and I could see another rock fight tonight in the Southland Conference semifinal.
Regardless of the point total, though, Lamar should be able to hang around.
- Lamar is 4-0 vs. Nicholls since the start of last season.
- Lamar is 9-0 ATS vs. Nicholls since February 2020.
- The Cardinals are 9-6-1 ATS this year and have covered a +4.5 spread in 12 of their past 13 games.
Nicholls has failed to cover a -4.5 spread in five of its past eight games.
UCF/Utah under 160.5 points (-167): Both teams play fast, ranking in the top 85 in offensive possession length, per KenPom.com. That should lead to a lot of points, right?
A high volume of possessions is great, but it won’t lead to a huge score if both sides struggle to actually put the ball in the hoop.
- UCF ranks outside the top 200 in eFG%, 2PT% and 3PT%. The Knights average 78.6 points per game.
- Utah ranks 248th in turnover rate and has the country’s eighth-lowest FT%. The Utes average 75.4 PPG.
In their lone matchup this season, UCF and Utah combined for 148 points in a narrow victory for the Knights.
Unders are 5-3 in UCF’s past eight games, and six of those eight games went under this total.
Picks made at 1:25 p.m. ET 03/11/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.