Tuesday’s NBA slate features just four games, and I’ve got prop bets from three of them.
The pregame narrative: Aaron Nesmith has excelled as a 3-point shooter in recent weeks, and I expect that to continue tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks. Elsewhere, look for productive nights from Cade Cunningham and Zion Williamson.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 11.
NBA prop bets
Best bet: Nesmith over 1.5 threes (-143)
This pick lacks some name-brand value — and it doesn’t come with the most exciting price — but I’m bullish about it anyhow.
Nesmith, who was originally a late lottery pick with the Boston Celtics, has taken his game to new heights with the Indiana Pacers.
Through two-plus seasons with the Pacers, the small forward has averaged 1.7 threes on 39.3% shooting.
Nesmith missed a significant chunk of time this year due to an ankle injury, but he’s been an active shooter from beyond the arc over the past month.
- Since Feb. 12, Nesmith has averaged 2.5 threes on 41.8% shooting.
- He has 2+ threes in 9 of his past 11 games.
Tyrese Haliburton missed Indiana’s three previous games, but his potential return shouldn’t take all of Nesmith’s opportunities away.
Nesmith is still a starter, after all, and he matched a career high with 11 attempted 3s on March 2 with Haliburton in the lineup.
Key stat: Nesmith hasn’t faced the Bucks since last year’s first round playoff matchup. In three home games during that series, he shot 7-of-19 from deep and hit this over twice.
Best NBA picks
Cunningham 6+ rebounds (-107): The last time Cunningham faced the Washington Wizards, on Nov. 17, he authored a 21-point triple-double.
In his two matchups against the Wizards in the past 12 months, he totalled 18 rebounds and cashed this bet both times.
Washington has been a favourable rebounding matchup for point guards across the league, allowing the fourth-most boards to that position (6.62), per Betting Pros.
Cunningham averages 6.1 rebounds and is 36-24 against this number.
Williamson over 23.5 points (-108): The Los Angeles Clippers allow the fewest points per game to opposing power forwards, which is a tough starting point for this prop.
But Williamson is as healthy as he’s been for quite some time, and he’s filling the net routinely.
- 20+ pts in 16 of his past 20 games
- 24+ pts in 11 of his past 17 games
- 24.5 PPG this season (26 games)
Right now, Williamson is sitting for back-to-backs but playing the rest of the time. Tonight, he’ll play the Clippers for the first time since March 2024, when he finished with 34 points in 35 minutes at home.
NBA prop picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 03/11/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.