Jordan Horrobin

In a somewhat unlikely matchup, the Wisconsin Badgers face the Michigan Wolverines on Sunday afternoon in the Big Ten tournament championship.

The pregame narrative: The top two seeds in the conference, Michigan State and Maryland, were ousted by these squads in the semifinals. I think Wisconsin gets it done today, and I’m backing the Badgers in a +300 parlay featuring John Blackwell and Danny Wolf.

Check out my Wisconsin vs. Michigan SGP predictions for the Big Ten title game on March 16.

Wisconsin vs. Michigan predictions

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Parlay: Wisconsin ML | Blackwell 15+ points | Wolf 15+ points (+300)

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Wisconsin moneyline (-186): If you’re looking for a March Madness long shot, I think Wisconsin is a team worth taking a flier on. And this run to the Big Ten tournament final shows why.

The Badgers looked great in Saturday’s win over top-ranked Michigan State, holding a lead for the final 15 minutes.

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True to form, Wisconsin excelled at the free-throw line (22-of-28) and committed minimal turnovers (seven).

Michigan’s offence is a turnover machine, averaging 14.3 per game (343rd in NCAA Division I).

Also, the Wolverines lost two regular season matchups against Michigan State in the past month — by a combined 30 points.

Michigan did beat Wisconsin, mind you, but that was a 67-64 win way back in December. And the Badgers led by three in the final few minutes before producing five straight empty possessions at the end.

NCAA SGP legs

Blackwell 15+ points (-182): John Tonje is the centrepiece of Wisconsin’s offence and should be the best player on the floor on Sunday.

But assuming Michigan sells out to stop him, there should be plenty of offensive looks for Blackwell.

A Big Ten all-freshmen team selection last year, Blackwell is averaging 15.4 points in Year 2 with the Badgers.

He had 16 points vs. Michigan on Dec. 3, and things really picked up when the calendar flipped to January.

• 16.2 PPG since Jan. 1
• 13.0 FGA
• 15+ points in 12 of 21 games

Wolf 15+ points (-155): Wolf is the Big Ten’s top rebounder, but he also knows how to get buckets.

The Yale transfer is averaging 15.2 PPG since the start of February and has cashed this bet in four straight.

He shot 7-for-11 from the floor (2-for-4 from deep) in a 20-point performance against the Badgers earlier this year.

The free throw shooting comes and goes, but Wolf is a 7-footer who shoots 35.0% from outside and gets plenty of looks around the rim. He’ll be tough for the Badgers to stop.

Wisconsin vs. Michigan predictions made at 11:10 a.m. on 03/16/25

After a gauntlet of an SEC tournament, we’re down to this: the Florida Gators against the Tennessee Volunteers in the championship matchup on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Both teams won and covered on home court against each other during the regular season, and now they’re on a neutral site in Nashville. Instead of backing a side, I’m focused on the game total for my best bet.

Check out my Tennessee vs. Florida predictions for the SEC tournament championship on March 16.

Tennessee vs. Florida predictions

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Best Bet: Under 144.5 points (-121)

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If you watched any of Florida’s first two games in the SEC tournament — especially the 104-82 win over Alabama on Saturday — you might be thinking, “How on Earth can the Gators go under a total like this?”

It’s true that 11 of Florida’s past 12 games have gone over this total. But every matchup is its own beast, and I expect today’s tilt to be defence-first.

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Florida can run wild and play a track-meet style of game when needed. It can also muck things up in a defensive slog.

Enter Tennessee, a team that plays at the 15th-slowest adjusted tempo in NCAA Division I, per KenPom.com.

The Gators and Volunteers both rank inside the top 10 in D-I in three significant defensive categories:

• Adjusted efficiency
• Effective field goal percentage
• 3-point percentage

Both teams attempt more than 40% of their shots from beyond the arc, so that top-notch perimeter defence is crucial for this over/under pick.

And by the way, we’ve already seen elite defence defeat elite offence in their two prior matchups.

• Jan. 7: 73-43 win for Florida (116 total points)

• Feb. 1: 64-44 win for Tennessee (108 total points)

Forget what you’ve seen from Florida in recent weeks. Points should be at a premium on Sunday.

Key stat: Unders are 10-5 when Tennessee is playing on the road or in a neutral site this season.

Quick pick

Parlay: Zakai Zeigler 15+ points, 6+ assists (+165): Zeigler completely flopped when he faced Florida on Jan. 7, and then he missed the rematch due to a knee injury.

But he’s played some excellent basketball since that gaffe against the Gators, and he’s the guy the Vols should lean on today.

• Before Jan. 8 (15 games): 11.3 PPG, 7.5 APG, 46.8 eFG%
  
• After Jan. 8 (17 games): 15.1 PPG, 7.1 APG, 50.6 eFG%

Zeigler has cleared this total in nine of his past 17 matchups.

Tennessee vs. Florida predictions made at 9:20 a.m. on 03/16/25

In the 68-team, single-elimination format of March Madness, all sorts of wild and unpredictable outcomes are bound to happen. And they do.

That’s why even some of the best programs enter the tournament with odds of 30-to-1 (3.23% implied probability) or longer. You just never know how things will shake out.

Leaning into the potential for anarchy, I’ve identified three compelling March Madness long shot picks for the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament.

March Madness long shot picks

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For most of the season, two teams stood out well ahead of the pack: the Duke Blue Devils and the Auburn Tigers.

Both squads are still well ahead of the rest of the field on the March Madness odds leaderboard. But they’ve shown some recent vulnerabilities that are worth highlighting.

• Auburn lost back-to-back games to close out the regular season — after losing just two previous games all year.

• Duke’s freshman megastar, Cooper Flagg, sustained an ankle injury in the ACC tournament quarterfinal. He then missed the semis and the final.

A No. 1 seed has won the national championship in six of the past seven tourneys, and Duke and Auburn are locked in as top seeds this year. But I think there are some valuable options further down the board.

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Best March Madness long shot

Wisconsin Badgers (+5,000)

The Badgers have some standout traits that should make them legitimate threats to go the distance in this tourney.

• Strong showing in a tough conference: The Big Ten is projected to have eight tournament teams, per ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, which is tied for the second-most in NCAA Division I. Wisconsin went 13-7 in the Big Ten and reached the conference tournament title game.

• Fundamentally sound: Wisconsin has the No. 1 free throw percentage in the country (82.8%) and ranks 19th in offensive turnover rate (14.4%), per KenPom.com.

• Has experience: Led by a trio of seniors in the starting lineup, Wisconsin ranks 45th in the nation in average D-I experience (2.59 years).

• Has a game-breaking star: Sixth-year transfer John Tonje averages a team-high 19.1 points while shooting 39.8% from deep and 91.3% from the free-throw line.

Wisconsin doesn’t have a truly ugly loss, either. The Badgers’ worst loss came against Penn State, which is ranked No. 60 of 364 by KenPom.

I’m sometimes wary of teams that shoot a ton of 3s, and Wisconsin is one of those. But the Badgers’ NCAA-best free throw shooting provides a nice offensive safety net.

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It’s been almost a decade, but coach Greg Gard has shepherded two Wisconsin squads into the Sweet 16 in his tenure. I think he has the pieces to go even further this time.

Other March Madness long shots

Gonzaga Bulldogs (+5,000)

By Gonzaga’s sky-high standards, this is a down year. The Bulldogs are 25-8, at risk of matching their lowest season win total since the Kelly Olynyk era in 2010-11.

Still, Gonzaga won another West Coast Conference tournament title and enters the Big Dance with a stellar offence:

• 2nd in PPG (86.6)
• 5th in FT% (80.1)
• 5th in turnover% (13.2)
• 11th in 2PT% (57.8)

The Zags are a March Madness staple, reaching the Sweet 16 or better in nine consecutive tournaments (including two national title appearances). Mark Few knows how to rise to the high-pressure occasion in March.

Last year’s squad ran into a Zach Edey-sized buzzsaw in the Sweet 16, but four of Gonzaga’s five starters are back for vengeance.

Like Wisconsin, there aren’t really any ugly losses to speak. All eight of the Zags’ losses came by a single-digit margin against a top-90-ranked KenPom team, and three of them were in overtime.

Clemson Tigers (+6,000)

You’re going to notice a theme now. I like experienced teams that have solid roster continuity.

Clemson fits that bill, with the eighth-most average D-I experience (3.02 years) and the 89th-most minutes continuity from last year (46.3%).

Ex-Tiger PJ Hall will be missed in this year’s tourney, but there are still plenty of contributors from last season’s Elite Eight squad.

That includes all-ACC forward Ian Schieffelin, who’s averaging close to a double-double (12.8 points, 9.4 rebounds).

Clemson is a balanced team that ranks inside the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency. The Tigers are also the only ACC program to beat Duke this year, and they’re 15-2 since Jan. 11.

March Madness picks made at 2:30 p.m. on 03/15/25

The ACC championship and Big East championship both tip off Saturday night, and I’ve got picks from those matchups in my +260 parlay.

The pregame narrative: I like the underdogs, the Creighton Bluejays (Big East) and Louisville Cardinals (ACC), to keep things tight and cover alt spreads. Later on, look for the Grand Canyon Antelopes to secure its fourth March Madness berth in five seasons.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for March 15.

NCAA basketball predictions

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Parlay: Creighton +10.5 | Louisville +8.5 | Grand Canyon ML (+260)

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Creighton +10.5 (-200): St. John’s won its first two conference tournament games in dominant fashion, but I expect Saturday’s finale to be more of a struggle.

Creighton has played St. John’s awfully tough this year.

• The Bluejays won the first matchup, 57-56, on New Year’s Eve.

• In the rematch, Creighton led inside of the 15-minute mark of the second half before losing, 79-73.

All told, the Bluejays have covered this number in 20 of their past 21 games. St. John’s, meanwhile, has only covered a -10.5 spread in four of its past 12.

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St. John’s struggles mightily to generate offence from the perimeter, where the Red Storm shoot just 30.0% (343rd in NCAA Division I). Good luck finding easy buckets inside, though, where four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner awaits.

Also, Creighton is 7-1-1 ATS as an underdog this year, per Team Rankings.

Other parlay predictions

Louisville +8.5 (-165): Cooper Flagg is out for the Duke Blue Devils, which should open a door for Louisville.

Without Flagg for half of the ACC quarterfinal and the full semifinal, Duke went 0-2 ATS. The Blue Devils didn’t cover this number either time.

As for Louisville, the team has covered a +8.5 spread in 24 straight games (going 22-2 SU in that span).

I’m not holding my breathe for Reyne Smith to suit up for Louisville, but the sharpshooting guard hasn’t been ruled out as of this writing, either.

Smith, who averages 3.5 threes on 38.3% shooting, is listed as questionable after missing three-plus games with an ankle injury.

With a pair of 6-foot-11 starting forwards, the Cardinals have enough size to go with a primarily inside-the-arc offence if Smith is out.

Grand Canyon moneyline (-205): The WAC final is set to tip off at 11:30 p.m. ET, but hopefully it’s worth the wait for the sake of this parlay.

Real ball knowers should remember Grand Canyon from its upset win in last year’s March Madness tournament over the No. 5-seeded Saint Mary’s Gaels. Well, three starters plus a few other contributors are back from that squad.

Look at the experience and continuity discrepancies between Grand Canyon and the Utah Valley Wolverines, as measured by KenPom.com:

• Grand Canyon: 44th in average D-I experience (2.61 years), 29th in minutes continuity from last season (57.9%)

• Utah Valley: 333rd in average D-I experience (0.78 years), 181st in minutes continuity from last season (34.1%)

Grand Canyon is 22-6 SU as a favourite this year and has gone 3-1 against Utah Valley since the start of last season. I’m counting on the Antelopes’ experience guiding them to victory.

NCAA basketball picks made at 11:05 a.m. ET 03/15/2025